Economic Outlook for Small Businesses - The NFIB small business optimization index reached 101.7 in November, surpassing the 50-year average of 98 for the first time in 34 months [1] - The net percent of owners expecting economic improvement rose to 36%, the highest since June 2020, significantly impacting the Optimism Index [2] Impact of Tariffs on Small Businesses - Trump's tariffs on foreign products aim to strengthen U.S. industries by encouraging job repatriation, benefiting small businesses that rely on U.S. consumers [5] - Tariffs on imported goods, particularly from China, will increase costs for cheaper imports, providing a level playing field for domestic small businesses [6] Interest Rate Cuts and Small Business Growth - Small businesses have struggled with inflation and high interest rates, which have affected their profit margins [7] - A gradual decline in benchmark interest rates is expected to benefit small businesses that depend on affordable credit [8] - The Fed has reduced interest rates by 75 basis points, with an 86% probability of another 25 basis point cut in December, totaling a 1% reduction in 2024 [9] Recommended Small-Cap Stocks - Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (RYAM) has an expected revenue growth rate of 6% and earnings growth rate of over 100% for 2025, with a potential upside of 59.1% from its current price of 53 [17] - MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX) projects a revenue growth rate of 39.1% and earnings growth of 82.5% for 2025, indicating a maximum upside of 177.5% from its last price of 10.08 [22] - Lands' End Inc. (LE) forecasts revenue growth of 2.7% and earnings growth of 54% for the next year, with a maximum upside of 36.1% from its last price of $14.69 [24]
Small Business Optimization Index Breaks Out in November: 5 Top Picks