Guosen Securities(002736) 中国经济网·2024-12-16 08:44Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies to expand domestic demand in response to increasing external challenges and economic difficulties [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The conference highlights the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio, issuing long-term special bonds, and enhancing the issuance and use of local government special bonds. It is expected that the government's leverage space will significantly expand by 2025, effectively addressing the issue of insufficient effective demand [1][4]. Monetary Policy - The conference stresses the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, including timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, while maintaining ample liquidity. This suggests that the space for monetary policy easing may further open up in 2025 [1][4]. Domestic Demand Policy - The conference calls for significant efforts to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency, aiming to comprehensively expand domestic demand. It is anticipated that fiscal policies will increasingly favor consumption, with initiatives such as trade-in programs for durable goods and the issuance of consumption vouchers expected to be implemented and scaled up [2][5]. Real Estate Policy - The conference emphasizes the need to continuously support the stabilization of the real estate market, with a focus on urban village and dilapidated housing renovations. It is expected that the strength of domestic real estate policies will further increase in 2025, potentially marking 2024 as the bottom of the current real estate cycle [2][5]. Social Policy - The conference stresses the importance of enhancing social welfare and improving the quality of life for citizens, including the implementation of healthcare initiatives and policies to promote childbirth. Increased spending in areas such as healthcare, childbirth, pension, and unemployment insurance is expected to lower living costs for residents, thereby better achieving the goal of boosting consumption [2][6].