Novo Nordisk shares plummet after weight-loss drug's disappointing trial results

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's late-stage trial results for its obesity drug CagriSema were disappointing, leading to a significant drop in market value, estimated at $125 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Trial Results and Market Impact - The trial showed an overall weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks, which was below the expected 25% [17][24]. - Following the announcement, Novo's shares fell as much as 27%, marking one of the largest one-day declines for a European company [2][23]. - The disappointing results have raised concerns about Novo's ability to maintain its competitive edge in the obesity drug market, especially against rivals like Eli Lilly [30][31]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's Zepbound demonstrated an average weight loss of nearly 23% in its clinical trials, positioning it as a strong competitor [7][16]. - Analysts had previously estimated peak sales for CagriSema could reach$ 20 billion, indicating high expectations for the drug [14]. - The pressure on Novo to deliver a more effective successor to Wegovy has intensified following Lilly's positive trial results [31][38]. Group 3: Patient Response and Side Effects - The trial indicated that 40.4% of patients achieved a weight loss of 25% or more, but only 57% reached the highest dose of the drug [4][24]. - Common adverse events associated with CagriSema were gastrointestinal, mostly mild to moderate, and diminished over time [13][27]. - Concerns were raised about patient tolerability and adherence to the treatment, with some patients potentially stopping injections after achieving satisfactory weight loss [10][11]. Group 4: Future Plans - Novo Nordisk plans to submit CagriSema for regulatory approval towards the end of 2025 and intends to start a new trial in the first half of next year to explore additional weight-loss potential [28][35].