Is ASML Stock a Buy Now?

Group 1: Industry Trends - Multiple secular trends are driving long-term growth in the semiconductor sector, including the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), expansion in edge computing, and increasing adoption of electric vehicles, all of which involve semiconductor components [1] - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach $1 trillion in sales by 2030, with global semiconductor sales expected to rise to nearly$700 billion in 2025, up from $627 billion in 2024 [10] Group 2: ASML's Current Situation - ASML's stock price has decreased by 6% in 2024 through December 19, and the company has warned that revenue for 2024 will be similar to 2023 due to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions, particularly new restrictions on semiconductor-related sales to China [2][3] - ASML's third-quarter earnings missed Wall Street expectations, forecasting full-year 2024 revenue around 28 billion euros, only slightly ahead of the 27.6 billion euros made last year [8] Group 3: Future Outlook for ASML - ASML is forecasting full-year sales for 2025 to be between 30 billion to 35 billion euros, which is not the significant growth previously promised [4] - Despite current challenges, ASML estimates it can achieve annual sales of between 44 billion to 60 billion euros by 2030, indicating substantial long-term upside potential [9] - ASML holds a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, essential for constructing high-density chips, positioning the company well to capture future demand for more potent semiconductors, particularly for AI applications [12][15] Group 4: Investment Considerations - ASML's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is considered reasonable, suggesting potential upside as AI and other secular trends expand [14] - The company offers a dividend yield of about 1%, providing a source of passive income while investors wait for stock recovery [6]