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专访长城证券首席经济学家汪毅:一线、强二线核心地段房产有筑底迹象
002939CGWS(002939) 证券时报网·2024-12-26 03:08

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Directions - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to strengthen consumption and investment to expand domestic demand, which is crucial for economic stability and growth [2][10] - Investment in new infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, such as 5G, industrial internet, and biomedicine, is identified as a key focus for future development [3] - The government aims to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies to stimulate consumption and investment, enhancing domestic market stability [17] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, particularly in first-tier cities, with increasing demand and improving market confidence [4][5] - A neutral forecast is maintained for next year's sales area, sales volume, and new construction in the real estate sector, with potential for localized recovery [6][12] - Recent policy measures, such as tax incentives for home purchases, are expected to support the real estate market and reduce costs for buyers [13] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Export Dynamics - China's foreign trade is facing challenges due to global economic slowdowns and changing trade dynamics, necessitating a shift towards diversifying export markets [7][16] - The "export rush" effect is not fully realized yet, influenced by various factors including global economic conditions and trade environments [9][10] - The government is encouraged to enhance cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative to mitigate reliance on traditional markets [16]