中泰证券：基础化工行业处于盈利和估值双底

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's chemical industry is entering a new cycle driven by policies focused on energy conservation, carbon reduction, ecological protection, and dual control of energy consumption [1] - The basic chemical industry has experienced negative capital expenditure for four consecutive quarters, with an increasing rate of decline, leading to a differentiation in supply among sub-industries [2] - China's global position in the chemical sector has significantly improved due to overseas companies shutting down production capacity and initiating mergers and acquisitions due to high energy costs and labor management expenses over the past two to three years [3] Group 2 - The production of spandex, polyester filament, and organic silicon is nearing completion, and attention should be paid to the price elasticity resulting from the optimization of the market structure [4] - From a resource perspective, industries such as phosphate rock, titanium ore, and potash fertilizer have strong safety margins and dividend yields [5] - Individual stocks to focus on include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua Co., Ltd. [6] Group 3 - The current basic chemical industry is at a dual bottom in terms of profitability and valuation [7] - There is an emphasis on seizing opportunities for domestic chemical companies amid changes in the overseas landscape, driven by supply-side reform [8] - It is recommended to focus on industries with relatively high operating rates and limited expansion in recent years under the supply-side reform context [9] Group 4 - The fluorochemical and industrial silicon sectors, which have already undergone changes or may potentially change, are also worthy of close attention [10] - High-concentration sub-industries such as vitamins, methionine, and sucralose should be prioritized [11]