长江证券于博：经济亮点纷呈 “两新”效果显著

Core Viewpoint - The positive factors in China's economic operation are gathering momentum, with a shift in policy since late September driving economic recovery and stability in industrial output and service sector growth [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Industrial added value is expected to grow steadily in October and November, with manufacturing PMI remaining in expansion for the longest period since early 2023 [1] - The reliance on real estate is decreasing, with the real estate sector's contribution to nominal GDP and its share in total loans and fixed asset investments steadily declining before November 2024 [1] Group 2: New Economic Drivers - The support for new productive forces is increasing, with the National Emerging Industry Venture Capital Guidance Fund participating in 501 sub-funds, raising 288.54 billion yuan to support nearly 8,946 early-stage companies [1] - High-tech manufacturing investment grew by 8.2% year-on-year from January to November, outpacing overall investment growth [1] Group 3: High-tech Industry Performance - High-tech industries saw an industrial added value increase of 9% year-on-year from January to November, significantly higher than the 5.4% growth in the overall industrial sector [1] - Production of high-tech products such as new energy vehicles and integrated circuits increased by over 20% year-on-year [1] Group 4: Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies have shown significant effects, with retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles and home appliances maintaining growth rates of over 50% and 20%, respectively, for three consecutive months [2] - Manufacturing technology reform investment grew by 8.5% in the first 11 months, surpassing overall investment growth, while equipment purchases increased by 15.8% [2] Group 5: Export Trends - Export structure is continuously optimizing, with a cumulative export growth of 5.4% from January to November 2024, despite monthly fluctuations [2] - High-value-added industrial products, including machinery, home appliances, integrated circuits, and automobiles, consistently outperformed labor-intensive products in export growth [2]