丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年三季度债市表现整体走弱，四季度作为全年收官阶段，债市行情将如何演绎？首先，四 季度伊始，贸易摩擦反复，债市收益率有所下行。其次，从今年四季度整体视角来看，经济基 本面将如何演绎，基本面对债市定价权是否会提升；贸易摩擦对债市影响的节奏和路径将如何 表现；市场关注的基金销售费率新规对债市影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title] 债市"收官战"，预计 Q4 债市表现优于 Q3 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 债市"收官战"，预计 Q4 债市表现优于 Q3 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年三季度债市表现整体走弱，四季度作为全年收官阶段，债市行情将如何演绎？首先， 四季度伊始，贸易摩擦反复，债市收益率有所下行。其次，从今年四季度整体视角来看，经济 基本面将如何 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：市场投研资讯） 本次贸易摩擦影响预计不及4月 对比4月，本次贸易摩擦范围更小、超预期程度更低，预计市场相比4月会更具韧性。美国10月14日将落 地对中国航运企业运营或拥有的船舶收费政策，并且美国参议院在审议《国防授权法案》时，拟限制中 国生物技术公司获取联邦资金。中方则对稀土相关物项实施出口管制，并对美船舶加征"特别港务费"。 特朗普于10月11日在社交媒体上宣布，作为对中国加强稀土出口管制的回应，将在11月1日对中国商品 额外加征100%关税。本次关税超预期程度较小。当前市场已有前次经验，且此次留有谈判空间，超预 期程度相对较小。此外，特朗普在宣布加征100%关税时未否定在10月31日韩国APEC峰会期间与中国进 行对话的可能性，随后发帖态度软化，仍然为"TACO交易"。前期摩擦后，市场对中美博弈模式已形成 预期。 大类资产或短期承压，长期趋势不改 我们预计在关税影响下，短期大类资产承压，长期关税扰动有限。短期来看，特朗普本次宣称对中国商 品全面加征 100%关税，或对大类资产产生显著冲击，但由于市场自 2018 年贸易战以来已积累一定的 政策适应性与学习效应，其引发的波动幅度预 ...

论坛： 2025母基金年度论坛圆满举办：内地携手香港，共话科创时代中国力量 荐读： 重新发现香港：科创时代的新蓝图 榜单： 「2025投资机构软实力排行榜」正式发布 热文： 今天，LP、GP都往厦门飞 来源：咸宁日报 每日｜荐读 "基金备案是资本赋能产业的起点。" 咸宁高投集团分管基金业务副总经理邹睿诚表示，选择与长江成长资本合作，正是看中其背后长江证券的全产 业链服务资源。未来基金将遵循"政府引导 + 专业管理 + 市场运作"模式，推动财政资金与社会资本高效联动，精准助力产业发展。 锚定咸宁"5+4"现代化工业体系，基金明确了投资路径与布局，重点聚焦大健康、电子信息、绿色能源、新材料等主导及新兴产业，采用"直投 + 子 基金"双轨策略。直投端已与禾邦新材料、艾迪科技等5 家企业达成2亿元投资意向；子基金端则携手九州科投、深创投红土医疗等机构签署20亿元合 作协议，着手构建"市—县—区"三级资本联动体系。 近日，"湖北省咸宁长证高新产业投资基金"在中国基金业协会完成备案，标志着《湖北省重构政府引导基金体系工作方案》出台后全省首支区域母基 金正式运营。 据悉，该基金总规模30亿元，由咸宁高投集团与长江证券旗下长 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——AI技术滥用调查：明星可被"一键换装"，"擦边"内容成流量密码，技术防 线为何形同虚设？ （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，瑞凌股份（SZ 300154，收盘价：8.4元）发布公告称，2025年10月11日，瑞凌股份接受长 江证券等投资者调研，公司董事会秘书孔亮等人参与接待，并回答了投资者提出的问题。 2024年1至12月份，瑞凌股份的营业收入构成为：工业占比98.42%，其他业务占比1.58%。 截至发稿，瑞凌股份市值为38亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among brokerages is that the impact of the current trade tensions will be significantly less than that experienced in April, with many viewing the situation as an opportunity rather than a cause for panic [1][4][5][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Strategies - Multiple brokerages emphasize the "TACO" trading strategy, suggesting that short-term market declines due to tariff threats often present buying opportunities [1][7][11]. - Analysts from various firms, including Guangfa Securities and Huaxi Securities, predict that the current market environment is different from April, with a more robust monetary and fiscal policy backdrop supporting the market [7][10]. - The potential for a minor risk-reward rebalancing is noted, with expectations of a short-term reduction in leveraged funds against the backdrop of strong market fundamentals [4]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Insights - The ongoing trade tensions are viewed as a tactical maneuver by the U.S. to gain leverage in negotiations, with the likelihood of a resolution being high [6][11]. - Analysts highlight that the long-term trend for A-shares remains bullish, supported by structural improvements in earnings and credit recovery [13]. - The upcoming APEC summit is identified as a critical event that may influence future negotiations and market sentiment [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Specific sectors such as technology, AI, and semiconductor industries are recommended for investment, particularly in the context of potential market volatility [7][10]. - The focus on domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and addressing internal demand is seen as a key driver for future market performance [9][13]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may provide favorable entry points for investors, particularly in light of historical patterns observed during similar market conditions [7][8].

2、本基金的第二十七个开放期为2025年10月15日（含该日）至2025年10月28日（含该日）。在开放期 内，投资者可以办理基金份额的申购、赎回业务。自2025年10月29日起，本基金进入第二十八个封闭 期。在封闭期内，本基金不办理申购、赎回业务。敬请投资者关注。 2.日常申购、赎回业务的办理时间 根据本基金《基金合同》的规定，本基金以定期开放方式运作，即采取在封闭期内封闭运作、封闭期与 封闭期之间定期开放的运作方式。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 公告送出日期：2025年10月13日 1.公告基本信息 ■ 注：1、长江乐盈定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金以下简称"本基金"； 本基金以三个月为一个封闭期，在封闭期内，本基金不接受基金份额的申购和赎回。本基金的封闭期为 自基金合同生效日（包括基金合同生效日）或每个开放期结束之日次日起（包括该日）至三个月后的对 日的前一日止。如该对日不存在，则对日调整至该对应月度的最后一个工作日；如该对日为非工作日， 则顺延至下一工作日。开放期为本基金开放申购、赎回等业务的期间。本基金自每个封闭期结束之日的 下一个工作日起进入开放期。本基金的每个开放期不少于 ...

注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 证券行业周报 市场交投活跃增强业绩修复预期 相关研究： 1.《行业周报：市场成交额小幅回 落，公募销售费用新规落地》 2025.9.7 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -2 -8 -11 绝对收益 2 7 6 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024/10/10 2024/12/10 2025/2/10 2025/4/10 2025/6/10 2025/8/10 2025/10/10 沪深300 证券Ⅱ(申万) 核心要点： ❑ 市场回顾：节后第一周券商板块表现活跃 根据 Wind 数据，上周（10.6-10.10）上证指数上涨 0.4%，沪深 300 指数下 跌 0.5%，创业板指下跌 3.9%。申万非银金融指数上涨 0.5%，涨跌 ...

战略数据研究丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 日本央行如何逐步减持 ETF %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 日本央行在 2025 年 9 月 18-19 日召开的 9 月金融政策决定会议中达成了日本 ETF 等金融资 产的处置决定，计划以每年 0.05%的比例逐步退出 ETF。处置的基本方针中强调了几点包括： 考虑市场情况以适当价格处置；尽可能避免产生损失；尽可能避免扰动市场。日本央行对于出 售节奏也保持了灵活的口径。减持交易上，日本央行或会采用与当年 2010 年至 2024 年期间购 买 ETF 时类似的策略，多集中于下午交易时段买入 ETF，以应对隔夜及早盘的下跌。政策宣告 后，日经 225 有小幅调整，但随后几个交易日便修复，具体影响或有待后续继续跟踪。但日本 央行的 ETF 减持计划可能会对日本 ETF 市场规模产生重大影响。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% ...

Core Insights - The "Second Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Best Investment Advisor Selection" is currently underway, aiming to identify outstanding investment advisors and enhance the investment advisory IP construction [1] - The competition includes various categories such as stock simulation trading, ETF simulation trading, public fund simulation allocation, and social service evaluation, with over 10,000 investment advisors participating [1] ETF Simulation Trading Rankings - Liu Lichao from Dongguan Securities achieved the highest monthly return of 34.52% in the ETF simulation trading for September [2] - The second place was secured by She Wenzhi from Xiangcai Securities with a return of 24.66%, followed by Zhou Yang from Guoxin Securities with a return of 22.61% [2] - Other notable performers include Fan Chunqing from Nanjing Securities (19.86%) and Yang Yun from Zhongtai Securities (19.66%) [2][3] Performance Metrics - The top 10 investment advisors in the ETF simulation trading all reported returns above 16%, indicating strong performance in the simulated trading environment [2][3] - The rankings reflect a competitive landscape among investment advisors, showcasing their ability to generate significant returns in a simulated setting [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a fluctuating upward trend since September, but the brokerage sector is still undergoing adjustments, with a decline of 4.73% in the brokerage index for the month despite a significant rise of nearly 5% on September 29 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index increased by 0.64%, 6.54%, and 12.04% respectively from September 1 to September 30 [4]. - The brokerage sector's index experienced a notable drop of 4.73% during September, but rebounded with a 4.89% increase on September 29, with several major brokerages hitting their daily limit [5][6]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - From September 1 to September 29, the Guotai Junan ETF attracted over 10 billion yuan in net inflows, making it the top-performing stock ETF for the month [1][5]. - The Huabao Brokerage ETF and Tianhong Securities ETF also saw significant inflows of 6.03 billion yuan and 2.52 billion yuan respectively, ranking among the top stock ETFs [1][5]. - Cumulatively, ETFs with "securities" or "brokerage" in their names saw a total net inflow of 26.61 billion yuan since September [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the brokerage sector will benefit from a dual boost of improved performance and valuation recovery, especially as market activity increases and policy support remains strong [9][10]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has surged to 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a 211% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 [9]. - Forecasts suggest that the brokerage sector's net profit could increase by approximately 48% year-on-year by the third quarter of 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to rise by 1.8 percentage points to 7.7% [9][10]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The brokerage sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with active equity funds holding only 0.64% of their portfolios in brokerage stocks, the lowest level since 2018 [11]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the A-share brokerage sector stands at 1.60, which is in the 39th percentile since 2014, indicating potential for valuation recovery [11]. - Investment strategies should focus on high-quality brokerages with strong wealth management and international business capabilities, as well as mid-sized brokerages with lower valuations [12].