WENS FOODSTUFF GROUP CO.(300498) 证券时报网·2025-01-07 02:56Core View - Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd (300498 SZ) turned a profit in 2024 after a significant loss in 2023, with expected net profit attributable to shareholders of 9-9 5 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 6 39 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The company's revenue is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 is expected to be 9-9 5 billion yuan, a significant turnaround from the 6 39 billion yuan loss in 2023 [1] - The company's non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 9 3-9 9 billion yuan in 2024, compared to a loss of 6 45 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan [1] Business Segments - The company's pig farming business generated 28 2 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2024, accounting for 60% of total revenue [2] - The poultry business contributed 16 7 billion yuan in revenue, representing 35 66% of total revenue [2] - Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd sold 5 48 billion chickens in the first half of 2024, a 1 04% decrease year-on-year, accounting for 7 21% of the national poultry output [2] - The company sold 14 3742 million pigs in the first half of 2024, a 21 96% increase year-on-year, representing 3 95% of the national pig output [2] Operational Capacity - As of October 2024, the company's sow farms have a production capacity of 46 million pigs [2] - The effective breeding capacity, including cooperative farmers and modern farming communities, is approximately 37 million pigs [2] Business Model - Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd operates under a "company + farmer" model, which has been in place for over 30 years [3] - The company provides chicks, piglets, feed, veterinary drugs, and vaccines to cooperative farmers, who are responsible for raising the animals to market weight [3] - The company offers technical guidance and services in key areas such as breeding management, disease prevention, and environmental treatment [3] - Cooperative farmers return the animals to the company for sale, and the company pays them based on performance and contract terms [3] Market Performance - The company's performance fell short of expectations, with a 2024 net profit of 9-9 5 billion yuan compared to the consensus estimate of 10 3 billion yuan [4] - In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company's net profit is expected to be 2 85 billion yuan, a 44% decrease from the third quarter's 5 081 billion yuan [4] - The average selling price of pigs in October 2024 was 17 64 yuan/kg, a 7 4% decrease from the previous month [4] - By December 2024, the average pork price had dropped to 27 72 yuan/kg, a 10% decrease from September 2024 [4] Industry Outlook - The number of breeding sows in China was 40 8 million in November 2024, slightly higher than at the beginning of the year and only 1 5% lower than the end of 2023 [6] - The breeding sow inventory is expected to influence pork production in September 2025, a traditionally low-demand season, potentially leading to further price declines [6] - The industry is shifting from expansion to quality improvement, with a focus on reducing production costs and increasing profitability [6] - Capital expenditures in the pig farming industry decreased by 27 4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting cautious investment [6] Conclusion - Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd's return to profitability does not indicate a bullish market for the industry [7] - The company's profit fluctuations are expected to remain volatile as the industry continues to adjust [7]