KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 证券时报网·2025-01-08 06:27Company Updates - Kweichow Moutai launched the Year of the Snake commemorative product, priced at 2499 yuan per bottle, marking the completion of a full zodiac cycle for its commemorative series [1] - The company plans to repurchase 3.3862 million shares with a maximum amount of 6 billion yuan, the largest repurchase plan in the A-share food and beverage industry since July 2022 [5] - Moutai has already repurchased 209,000 shares for nearly 30 million yuan as of January 3 [5] - The repurchase price ceiling is set at 1771.9 yuan per share, representing a premium of over 20% to the current stock price [5] - Moutai's overseas business revenue proportion ranks first in the industry, with plans to become an international company by 2035 [7] Financial Performance - Moutai's 2024 net profit is expected to reach approximately 85.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 14.67% [3] - The company's net profit growth rate in 2024 is expected to decline by more than 4 percentage points compared to 2023's 19.16% growth [3] - Moutai's stock price fell 4.13% from December 30, 2024 to January 7, outperforming the broader liquor index which fell 6.85% during the same period [2] - Since December 2024, Moutai's decline has been less than half of the nearly 9% drop in the liquor index [2] Industry Trends - Nearly 80% of liquor companies may face performance pressure in 2024 [4] - Many well-known liquor companies are expected to see single-digit net profit growth in 2024, such as Shanxi Fenjiu (19.5%) and Luzhou Laojiao (8.26%) [4] - Some companies like Jinguizi Liquor may continue to experience losses in 2024 [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the liquor industry is below 19 times, significantly lower than the 10-year median of nearly 30 times [2] - The industry is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality development, with leading companies implementing measures to control volume and stabilize prices [7] Market Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to enter a stage of supply-demand balance, with companies focusing more on product quality [7] - Industry demand is predicted to gradually improve in 2025 under policy stimulus, with sales volume expected to recover moderately [8] - Price risks have been largely released and are expected to stabilize [8] - The industry is currently in a bottoming-out phase, with expectations of gradual improvement after Q2 2025 [8] - The sector remains at a low valuation level, with room for improvement in dividend payout ratios [8]