◎记者 王彭 赵明超 此外，广发主题领先混合A、汇添富策略增长灵活配置混合、永赢长远价值混合A、宝盈核心优势混合 A等基金2024年四季度末的权益仓位较三季度末均提升超过10个百分点。 睿远成长价值混合基金经理傅鹏博、朱璘在基金四季报中表示，2024年四季度，基金适度提高了股票类 资产配置，股票仓位为88.7%，环比增加3.7个百分点。前十大持仓在基金资产净值中的占比为55.8%， 环比提高约1.4个百分点。 "2024年四季度，我们增加了权益资产的仓位，主要配置在政策导向支持的行业中具备长期竞争力的公 司。"宝盈核心优势混合A基金经理吕功绩称。 贵州茅台跌出基金前三大重仓股 天相投顾数据显示，2024年四季度，宁德时代连续第三次成为公募基金头号重仓股，腾讯控股跃居次 席，美的集团位居第三。贵州茅台罕见地跌出了基金前三大重仓股，屈居第四名。 2024年四季度，A股市场震荡调整。天相投顾数据显示，截至2024年底，公募基金整体权益仓位基本与 三季度末持平，混合型开放式基金平均仓位较三季度末小幅提升。 基金四季报显示，宁德时代连续第三次成为公募基金头号重仓股，腾讯控股位居次席，美的集团位居第 三。此前长期位居基金 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company achieved high-quality growth in 2024, with revenue reaching 1871.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and profit totaling 1207.7 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year [2] - The company completed eight key tasks in 2024, including strengthening the main business, improving production quality, and enhancing marketing strategies [2] - For 2025, the company aims for steady progress, focusing on nine major systems such as modern industrial development, enterprise governance, and product quality control [3] Financial Performance - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 68.23/73.33/79.65 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22/20/19 times [8] - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are expected to be 15.4%, 7.4%, and 8.1%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are forecasted at 14.7%, 7.5%, and 8.6% [10] - ROE is expected to increase from 33.4% in 2023 to 38.3% in 2026 [10] Market Performance - The current stock price is 1471.27 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 1848.2 billion yuan [4] - The 52-week price range is between 1261 and 1770 yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 5329.34 million yuan [4] Strategic Focus - The company plans to focus on three main businesses: liquor industry, liquor tourism and health, and industrial chain finance [3] - It aims to build a dual-circulation marketing system, integrating domestic and international markets [3] - The company will continue to invest in R&D, with a projected year-on-year increase of 10.2% in 2025 [3]

2025 年 01 月 15 日 茅台集团高质增长，目标稳中有进 —贵州茅台（600519.SH）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 1 月 14 日，贵州茅台母公司茅台集团第七届第三次 职工代表大会在茅台会议中心大礼堂开幕。 投资要点 ▌2024 年圆满收官，实现高质增长 各项任务圆满完成，主要指标两位数增长。根据茅台集团职 工代表大会，2024 年茅台集团实现营收 1871.9 亿元，同增 13.3%；利润总额 1207.7 亿元，同增 10.2%；税收 817.4 亿 元，同增 15.0%；研发投入同增 11%；资产负债率、净资产收 益率、全员劳动生产率、营业现金比率处于行业优秀水平， 主要经营指标持续保持两位数增长，服务全省经济大局作用 持续彰显。2024 年茅台集团重点完成八个方面工作：一是主 业发展蹄疾步稳，进一步做强酒产业主价值链；二是生产质 量稳中趋优，进一步完善质量管理制度体系。三是市场营销 全线发力，推动"线上+线下""自营+社会经销"形成相互 补位的生态系统。四是科技创新成果丰硕，申请发明专利 170 项。五是 ESG 水平整体跃升，将 ESG 理念融入生产经营 全过程。六是品牌张力显著提升 ...

Company Updates - Kweichow Moutai launched the Year of the Snake commemorative product, priced at 2499 yuan per bottle, marking the completion of a full zodiac cycle for its commemorative series [1] - The company plans to repurchase 3.3862 million shares with a maximum amount of 6 billion yuan, the largest repurchase plan in the A-share food and beverage industry since July 2022 [5] - Moutai has already repurchased 209,000 shares for nearly 30 million yuan as of January 3 [5] - The repurchase price ceiling is set at 1771.9 yuan per share, representing a premium of over 20% to the current stock price [5] - Moutai's overseas business revenue proportion ranks first in the industry, with plans to become an international company by 2035 [7] Financial Performance - Moutai's 2024 net profit is expected to reach approximately 85.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 14.67% [3] - The company's net profit growth rate in 2024 is expected to decline by more than 4 percentage points compared to 2023's 19.16% growth [3] - Moutai's stock price fell 4.13% from December 30, 2024 to January 7, outperforming the broader liquor index which fell 6.85% during the same period [2] - Since December 2024, Moutai's decline has been less than half of the nearly 9% drop in the liquor index [2] Industry Trends - Nearly 80% of liquor companies may face performance pressure in 2024 [4] - Many well-known liquor companies are expected to see single-digit net profit growth in 2024, such as Shanxi Fenjiu (19.5%) and Luzhou Laojiao (8.26%) [4] - Some companies like Jinguizi Liquor may continue to experience losses in 2024 [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the liquor industry is below 19 times, significantly lower than the 10-year median of nearly 30 times [2] - The industry is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality development, with leading companies implementing measures to control volume and stabilize prices [7] Market Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to enter a stage of supply-demand balance, with companies focusing more on product quality [7] - Industry demand is predicted to gradually improve in 2025 under policy stimulus, with sales volume expected to recover moderately [8] - Price risks have been largely released and are expected to stabilize [8] - The industry is currently in a bottoming-out phase, with expectations of gradual improvement after Q2 2025 [8] - The sector remains at a low valuation level, with room for improvement in dividend payout ratios [8]

Market Performance of Moutai's Zodiac Wine - The terminal price of Moutai's Snake Zodiac Wine (Snake Moutai) has shown a more rational trend compared to previous years, with the current retail price at 2,850 RMB per bottle and 2,930 RMB per bottle with an invoice [1] - The pre-sale price of Snake Moutai once surged to over 4,000 RMB per bottle before its official release, but the price has since stabilized due to increased market supply [1] - Online platforms show that the price of Snake Moutai generally ranges between 2,700 RMB and 2,900 RMB per bottle [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Moutai has changed its previous limited-release strategy for zodiac wines, with the company releasing nearly 100,000 bottles of Snake Moutai daily for five consecutive days through its official e-commerce platform "i Moutai" before the official launch [2] - By the time of its official release on January 5th, nearly 500,000 bottles of Snake Moutai had been pre-ordered, significantly increasing market supply and reducing the likelihood of excessive price speculation [2] - The increased supply has met the genuine collection demand of Moutai enthusiasts, preventing a supply-demand imbalance and excessive price premiums [2] Industry and Company Strategy - The current price of Snake Moutai is considered reasonable, making it more accessible to genuine consumers while reducing speculative opportunities [3] - Moutai's management has shifted its focus from "channel-driven" to "consumer-driven" strategies, aiming to regulate price expectations through market mechanisms and benefit consumers with genuine collection, self-consumption, and social gifting needs [3] - The company's strategy aligns with its goal of addressing the fundamental issue of "supply-demand adaptation" and maintaining a healthy and orderly pricing system for its products [3] - Moutai's pricing strategy is seen as beneficial for the valuation system of the Chinese liquor industry, particularly in a market where many premium liquors face price inversion [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) with a target price of RMB 1,440 00 [1] - The sector rating is **Outperform** [1] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved its 2024 targets with an estimated operating revenue of RMB 173 8 billion (+15 4% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 85 7 billion (+14 7% YoY) [3] - The company announced a "three-year dividend plan" with a payout ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026 and a mid-year dividend of RMB 23 882 per share (totaling over RMB 30 billion) [5] - A share buyback plan of RMB 3-6 billion was announced to enhance investor confidence [5] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of RMB 68 23, 74 46, and 81 19 for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21 1X, 19 3X, and 17 7X [5] Business Performance - In 2024, Moutai liquor revenue reached RMB 145 8 billion (+15 2% YoY), while series liquor revenue grew to RMB 24 6 billion (+19 2% YoY) [8] - Q4 2024 saw a slowdown in series liquor revenue growth to 3 4%, while Moutai liquor maintained double-digit growth at 13 6% [8] - The company produced 56 3k tons of Moutai base liquor (-1 6% YoY) and 48 1k tons of series liquor base liquor (+12 0% YoY) in 2024 [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on "three transformations" (customer base, consumption scenarios, and service) to adapt to market changes [8] - For 2025, Moutai plans to slightly increase domestic market allocation of Moutai liquor, reduce the allocation of 53-degree 500ml premium Moutai, and increase the allocation of 1000ml bottles to stabilize prices [8] - The company aims to build three RMB 10 billion business units for series liquor: Moutai 1935, Moutai Prince, and Han Sauce [8] Financial Projections - Operating revenue is projected to grow to RMB 187 6 billion (+10 0% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 207 0 billion (+10 3% YoY) in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 93 5 billion (+9 1% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 102 0 billion (+9 0% YoY) in 2026 [7] - EBITDA is forecasted to grow to RMB 127 1 billion in 2025 and RMB 138 9 billion in 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of 1440 CNY [7] Core Views - The company held its 2025 distributor conference, emphasizing growth driven by volume increases [1] - The company aims to achieve a growth rate for its series liquor products that is not lower than the average growth rate of the top five listed companies [2] - The company plans to focus on three major product lines: **Moutai 1935**, **Prince**, and **Hanjiang**, aiming to create three 10-billion CNY business units [3] - The company will continue to optimize its product matrix and enhance brand value, with a focus on transitioning its customer base to target "new business" groups [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 15%, 9%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching 1735 billion CNY, 1890 billion CNY, and 2047 billion CNY respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 15%, 9%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching 858 billion CNY, 935 billion CNY, and 1013 billion CNY respectively [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 21X, 19X, and 18X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Product Strategy - The company will focus on building a product cluster around **Moutai 1935**, aiming to develop it into a core product line [3] - **Prince** liquor will be developed into the second 10-billion CNY product within two years, with a focus on high-end and low-alcohol variants [3] - The company plans to reduce the market supply of **Hanjiang (Jiangxin Chuan)** in 2025 [3] Channel Strategy - The company will continue to develop a matrix-style channel strategy, with plans to expand its sales team to support a 20-billion CNY sales scale [3] - The company will adjust the product structure of its self-operated and social channels to ensure market stability [3] Market Activities - The company plans to increase market activity spending to approximately 675 million CNY in 2025, an 83% year-on-year increase [4] - New products, including the **Yisi Snake Year Zodiac Wine** and **Shengle Feitian Moutai**, will be launched on January 5, 2025 [4] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue in 2023 was 15056033 million CNY, with a growth rate of 1804% [6] - EBITDA for 2023 was 10396614 million CNY, with a projected growth to 11835591 million CNY in 2024 [6] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 7473407 million CNY, with a projected growth to 8581185 million CNY in 2024 [6] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the **Food & Beverage/Alcohol II** industry [7] - The company's A-share market capitalization is 180892483 million CNY, with a total share capital of 125620 million shares [8]

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 01 月 04 日 证券研究报告•公司动态跟踪报告 贵州茅台（600519）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 1505.60 | 1737.97 | 1912.10 | 2093.94 | | 增长率 | 18.04% | 15.43% | 10.02% | 9.51% | | 归属母公司净利润（亿元） | 747.34 | 857.07 | 945.93 | 1044.39 | | 增长率 | 19.16% | 14.68% | 10.37% | 10.41% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 59.49 | 68.23 | 75.30 | 83.14 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 34.66% | 32.43% | 29.79% | 27.75% | | PE | 25 | 22 | 20 | 18 | | PB | 8.59 | 7.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) [4] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved a total operating revenue of approximately 173 8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15 44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 85 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14 67% [1] - The company successfully met its annual revenue growth target of 15% in 2024, with Moutai liquor and series liquor revenues increasing by 15 17% and 19 24% respectively [2] - The company is actively transforming to address industry challenges, focusing on consumer-centric marketing and supply-demand balance, with plans to increase the投放量 of Moutai liquor in 2025 and refine the product structure [3] Financial Performance - Estimated Q4 2024 revenue was 506 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12 0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 248 7 billion yuan, up 13 8% year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 49 08%, an increase of 0 77 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company produced approximately 5 63 million tons of Moutai liquor base liquor in 2024, a decrease of 1 58% compared to 2023, while series liquor base liquor production increased by 12 0% to 4 81 million tons [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on挖掘新消费需求 and transforming its customer base, particularly targeting the "new business" demographic [3] - Moutai plans to adjust the投放结构 of aged and珍品 Moutai products, with large规格飞天茅台 and文创 products expected to contribute to增量 [3] - The series liquor strategy revolves around Moutai 1935 as the core product, supported by Moutai王子酒 and汉酱酒, with increased market费用投入 and营销队伍 [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report slightly下调 the 2024-2026 net profit forecasts to 856 7/944 9/1041 2 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 0 8%/2 1%/3 1% from previous estimates [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22/20/18 times for 2024-2026 [4] - The company has announced a cash dividend ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026, with an interim dividend of approximately 30 billion yuan in 2024 and a share回购计划 of 3-6 billion yuan [4] Market Data - The total market capitalization of Kweichow Moutai is approximately 1 869 trillion yuan, with a total share capital of 1 256 billion shares [6] - The stock's one-year low/high range is 1 226 65/1 880 59 yuan, with a three-month turnover rate of 19 51% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) [1][7] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved 15% revenue growth in 2024, meeting its annual target [1] - The company's 2025 operational goals are described as rational and pragmatic [1] - Moutai is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, leveraging its diversified distribution channels and rapid growth of series liquor [4] Financial Performance 2024 Performance - Estimated total revenue of 173 8 billion yuan (+15 44% YoY) [1] - Estimated net profit attributable to shareholders of 85 7 billion yuan (+14 67% YoY) [1] - Q4 2024 revenue of 506 77 billion yuan (+12 01% YoY) [1] - Q4 2024 net profit of 248 72 billion yuan (+13 79% YoY) [1] Product Breakdown - Moutai liquor revenue: 145 8 billion yuan (+15 18% YoY) [2] - Series liquor revenue: 24 6 billion yuan (+19 24% YoY) [2] - Q4 2024 Moutai liquor revenue: 446 74 billion yuan (+13 62% YoY) [2] - Q4 2024 series liquor revenue: 52 07 billion yuan (+3 40% YoY) [2] Production - 2024 Moutai base liquor production: 56 300 tons (-1 58% YoY) [2] - 2024 series liquor base production: 48 100 tons (+12 02% YoY) [2] 2025 Outlook - Domestic market allocation for Moutai liquor to increase slightly [3] - 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai allocation to decrease, with increased focus on other specifications and cultural products [3] - Series liquor sales growth target: ≥14-15% [3] - Moutai 1935 to remain core product, with Moutai Prince and Hanjiang as key supporting products [3] - Moutai Prince aiming for 10 billion yuan revenue within 2 years [3] Financial Projections Revenue - 2025E: 187 75 billion yuan (+8 0% YoY) [4] - 2026E: 201 72 billion yuan (+7 4% YoY) [4] Net Profit - 2025E: 92 45 billion yuan (+7 9% YoY) [4] - 2026E: 100 34 billion yuan (+8 5% YoY) [4] Valuation Metrics - 2024E PE: 21 8x [4] - 2025E PE: 20 2x [4] Shareholder Returns - 2024-2026 dividend payout ratio: ≥75% [4] - Mid-term cash dividend: 30 billion yuan [4] - Share buyback: 3-6 billion yuan [4] - 2025 dividend yield: 3 44% [4] Industry Context - The baijiu industry remains in a demand consolidation phase [4] - Industry-wide slowdown is becoming consensus [4] - Domestic demand expected to gradually recover with policy support in 2025 [4]