食品饮料 - 筑底接近尾声，聚焦高质量增长 20260320 摘要 食品饮料板块估值与机构持仓均处历史底部，2026 年春节消费超预期 改善，跨区域人员流动+8%带动饮料及白酒动销，行业进入弱复苏筑底 期。 白酒板块 4 月迎报表出清，5 月后受低基数效应驱动动销转正；高端酒 茅台、五粮液春节动销双位数增长，价格下探挤压 500-800 元价位段， 呈现强者恒强态势。 软饮料行业结构分化，无糖茶、功能饮料及中式养生水高增，农夫山泉 无糖茶市占率达 79.8%；成本端 PET 受油价影响略升，但龙头具备较 强成本转嫁能力。 休闲零食量贩渠道进入双寡头格局，2026 年为门店扩张最后一年，核 心逻辑转向盈利提升；乳制品原奶周期预计下半年迎来拐点，下游乳企 盈利能力有望回暖。 现制茶饮行业集中度提升，中小品牌外卖补贴退坡后加速出清，古茗、 蜜雪冰城同店销售正增长；速冻食品受益餐饮复苏及预制菜国标出台， 增长恢复至双位数。 啤酒行业高端化进程放缓，6-10 元价格带成为升级主力；保健品受内容 电商冲击导致集中度持续下降，2026 年龙头企业加大线上布局有望迎 来困境反转。 Q&A 对于 2026 年食品饮料行业的整体 ...

白酒：酒企自 25Q3 起业绩加速出清、步入显性"去库存"阶段，因此酒企业绩出清已在市场预期内，预计 25Q4+26Q1 上市酒企整体会延续 25Q3 相似的出清斜率，26H2 低基数下或步入表观企稳阶段。其中，我们预计两类酒企 26Q1 业绩 已有望提前企稳：1）出清较早、出清斜率较高的二线酒企，如舍得酒业等；2）具备强势α禀赋的酒企，如贵州茅台。 我们看好当前白酒板块配置价值、低预期下胜率可观，尤其是在市场风偏受外部风险事件影响有所波动的窗口期。预 期先行、节后即使淡季亦具备自上而下催化，从复盘来看 PPI、M1 等对白酒需求侧具备前瞻信号意义。伴随"反内卷" 政策持续落地、企业 ROE 有望改善，并传导至企业端招待等支出提升、居民收入预期改善，行业拐点将逐步临近。 配置方向建议：1）品牌力突出、护城河深厚的高端酒（贵州茅台、五粮液），渠道势能仍处于上行期的山西汾酒，受 益于大众需求强韧性&乡镇消费提质升级趋势的稳健区域龙头。2）顺周期潜在催化的弹性标的（如泛全国化名酒古井 贡酒、泸州老窖），有新产品、新渠道、新范式催化的弹性酒企（如珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒等）。 啤酒：啤酒的需求场景偏大众化、目前餐饮 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sales growth has accelerated, with a focus on feedback from the Spring Sugar Festival. The report suggests that the overall rhythm of the liquor industry is expected to improve on a month-on-month basis, with key recommendations including leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and others focusing on supply clearance [1][2] - The beer sector is witnessing a recovery, with a notable increase in beer production and the launch of new products, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [3] - The food sector shows a recovery in retail sales, particularly in the restaurant segment, which is expected to drive opportunities in related supply chains [4][7] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 2.918 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, while Shide Jiuye reported a revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year. The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among liquor companies, with Kweichow Moutai leading the recovery through reforms [2] - Jinhuijiu's product structure upgrade is notable, with high-end products (above 300 yuan) increasing by 25.21% year-on-year, while low-end products (below 100 yuan) decreased by 36.88% [2] Beer and Beverage Sector - In the beer segment, the cumulative production of major enterprises reached 5.797 million kiloliters in January-February 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. The launch of the new Yanjing A10 product is expected to enhance market presence [3] - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, with companies launching new products to capture market share. Notable new releases include flavored waters and teas targeting specific consumer scenarios [3] Food Sector - Retail sales in the food sector increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with restaurant income growing by 4.8%. This growth is attributed to the recovery of consumer spending and seasonal factors [4][7] - Wanchen Group reported a record high net profit margin of 5.7% in Q4 2025, indicating strong profitability and market expansion potential [7]

投资要点（行业评级：增持） 投资建议：拐点将至，重视涨价主线 白酒调整尾声，长期看价，集中化延续；大众品见底，板块分化加剧，调味品、啤酒、饮料韧性较强。1）白酒首选具有价格弹 性标的：贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖以及有望陆续出清标的：迎驾贡酒、古井贡酒、山西汾酒、今世缘、珍酒李渡、舍得酒 业、金徽酒； 2）调味品优选具备渠道力与产品力、明确提价预期与高分红属性的龙头以及量价齐升弹性突出的餐饮供应链龙头， 推荐海天味业、安井食品、安琪酵母、千禾味业、天味食品、宝立食品、巴比食品；3）啤酒具备全国化与大单品战略、分红意 愿强的龙头与高成长区域龙头，推荐青岛啤酒、珠江啤酒、重庆啤酒、青岛啤酒股份（港股） 、华润啤酒（港股） 、百润股份； 4）布局龙头乳企与头部牧业，推荐蒙牛乳业、伊利股份、新乳业、优然牧业（港股）、现代牧业（港股）；5）具备品类与渠 道优势的原料、零食及饮料龙头，推荐百龙创园、东鹏饮料、农夫山泉（港股）、中国食品（港股）、康师傅控股（港股）、 统一企业中国（港股）、卫龙美味（港股）、盐津铺子、西麦食品、有友食品、洽洽食品、劲仔食品。 白酒：行业筑底，回归理性 本轮周期从"U型调整"迈向"V型调整"。与 ...

食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《春节提振消费表现，1-2 月社零增速 环比提升—行业点评报告》-2026.3.18 《白酒底部逐步夯实，重视龙头配置 价值—行业点评报告》-2026.3.17 《政策定调树立信心，白酒复苏趋势 明确—行业点评报告》-2026.3.17 消费前景乐观展望，多维度布局龙头标的 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：板块防御属性凸显，多赛道把握投资机遇 3 月 16 日-3 月 20 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 0.5%，一级子行业排名第 3，跑赢沪 深 300 约 1.7pct，子行业中白酒（+0.3%）、其他食品（+0.0%）、软饮料（-0.7%） 表现相对领先。本周食品饮料板块展现出较强的防御属性，核心 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moutai is venturing into the pet food market by utilizing its byproduct, the spent grains from its liquor production, to create high-quality pet food, particularly for cats and dogs, leveraging the black soldier fly for protein production [4][9]. Group 1: Benefits to Moutai - Moutai's liquor production generates a significant amount of spent grains, approximately 4 tons for every ton of liquor produced, leading to an annual output of around 300,000 tons of spent grains from its 30 production facilities [4]. - The introduction of black soldier flies to consume the spent grains not only reduces waste management costs but also produces high-quality organic fertilizer, creating multiple revenue streams for Moutai [7]. - Moutai's strategy includes potential future applications of spent grains in cosmetics, further diversifying its product offerings and revenue sources [7]. Group 2: Consumer Advantages - The entry of Moutai into the pet food market is expected to enhance product quality, as the company is known for its stringent quality control, which could alleviate concerns over the quality of pet food [9][10]. - Moutai's pet food could potentially offer better nutritional value due to the use of insect protein, which is more sustainable and efficient compared to traditional protein sources [9]. - The brand recognition and marketing power of Moutai could lead to competitive pricing and widespread distribution, making high-quality pet food more accessible to consumers [11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pet food industry is becoming increasingly competitive, with Moutai's entry signaling a shift in market dynamics, as established brands may struggle to compete with Moutai's resources and brand strength [11]. - Moutai's unique positioning allows it to integrate pet food into its existing distribution channels, creating a closed-loop system that enhances overall profitability [11]. - The potential for Moutai to innovate within the pet food sector could set new standards for quality and sustainability, influencing industry practices [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector for 2026, particularly focusing on cyclical opportunities in the liquor and restaurant supply chain [5][9]. Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery in demand for the food and beverage sector, with January-February retail sales in the restaurant sector growing by 4.8% year-on-year, and a notable increase in tobacco and alcohol sales by 19.1% [5][9]. - The white liquor sector is expected to stabilize, with Moutai prices maintaining above 1500 RMB, indicating a potential turning point in the industry cycle [5][10]. - The report highlights a trend towards consolidation in the industry, favoring large companies capable of nationwide distribution and those with regional integration potential [5][9]. - Key recommendations include Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye in the liquor sector, and companies like Anjuke Foods, Haitian Flavoring, and Yili in the consumer goods sector [5][12]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector outperformed the market, with a 0.48% decline compared to a 3.38% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking third among 31 sub-sectors [8][32]. - The report notes structural improvements in the consumer goods sub-sector, with competition shifting from price to quality, leading to a gradual balance in supply and demand [5][12]. White Liquor Sector - As of March 21, Moutai's bottle price is 1560 RMB, with a slight weekly decrease, while the case price increased by 35 RMB to 1640 RMB, indicating price stability [10][18]. - Moutai's new consignment policy aims to enhance price stability and reduce financial pressure on distributors, transitioning to a model that encourages sales volume growth [10][11]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sub-sector is expected to recover, with a focus on supply chain-related products such as condiments and frozen foods, alongside structural opportunities in the dairy sector [12][5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in demand for convenience foods driven by tourism during the Spring Festival, recommending companies like Shuanghui Development and New Dairy [12][5].

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 21 日 相关研究 《茅台代售政策落地 坚定看好公司市场化 改革——食品饮料行业周报 20260309- 20260313》 2026/03/16 《批价维持合理 估值吸引力提升——食品 饮料行业周报 20260302-20260306》 2026/03/07 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 茅台批价坚挺 关注糖酒会反馈 看好 —— 食品饮料行业周报 20260316-20260320 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：食品安全问题，经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 《节后茅台批价 ...

【重点推荐】 行业与公司 证券研究报告 | 2026年03月20日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-03-19 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4006.55 | 13901.56 | 4583.25 | 14931.73 | 4068.73 | 1339.03 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -1.38 | -2.01 | -1.61 | -2.54 | -1.73 | -2.44 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9352.64 | 11757.04 | 5478.50 | 3982.31 | 5417.48 | 620.07 | $$\overline{{{\prod_{p\in\mathbb{R}}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\frac{p_{i}}{p_{i}}}}}$$ 贵州茅台(600519.SH) 深度报告:革故鼎新，与时偕行，再论茅台的护城 河与增长潜力 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月19日 贵州茅台（600519.SH） 优于大市 革故鼎新，与时偕行，再论茅台的护城河与增长潜力 估值承压：多因素压制需求，飞天消费属性增强。正确客观认识茅台酒属性特点 是理解其估值的前提，2022-2025 年贵州茅台股价自高点下跌 33%、PE(TTM)下降 63%，我们认为需求减少、场景受限是主因，飞天茅台酒消费属性增强，市场价 格自高点最大下跌 60%，导致估值回调。 以史为鉴：紧扣时代脉搏，市场化改革破局供需难题。复盘历史，公司尊重市场 规律，多次市场化改革化解危机：1）1998 年国内产业结构调整，酒类需求减少， 公司通过市场化引进特约经销商、专卖店等，培育核心意见领袖，奠定价格的龙 头地位。2）2013-15 年受"限三公消费"等政策冲击，飞天价格最大下跌 56%， 公司市场化招商，开发生肖茅台酒等非标类产品，拓展商务消费场景，顺利成 为行业龙头。 对标爱马仕：匠心品质为核，品牌与时俱进。长期看，茅台酒仍具有不可替代性， 考虑到生产工艺特点，十五五期间茅台酒理论可供销售量预计约 5.2 万吨，增量 有限，高档奢侈属性有增强的基础。我们认为爱马仕对茅台酒的发展具有 ...