【重点推荐】 行业与公司 证券研究报告 | 2026年03月20日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-03-19 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4006.55 | 13901.56 | 4583.25 | 14931.73 | 4068.73 | 1339.03 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -1.38 | -2.01 | -1.61 | -2.54 | -1.73 | -2.44 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9352.64 | 11757.04 | 5478.50 | 3982.31 | 5417.48 | 620.07 | $$\overline{{{\prod_{p\in\mathbb{R}}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\frac{p_{i}}{p_{i}}}}}$$ 贵州茅台(600519.SH) 深度报告:革故鼎新，与时偕行，再论茅台的护城 河与增长潜力 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月19日 贵州茅台（600519.SH） 优于大市 革故鼎新，与时偕行，再论茅台的护城河与增长潜力 估值承压：多因素压制需求，飞天消费属性增强。正确客观认识茅台酒属性特点 是理解其估值的前提，2022-2025 年贵州茅台股价自高点下跌 33%、PE(TTM)下降 63%，我们认为需求减少、场景受限是主因，飞天茅台酒消费属性增强，市场价 格自高点最大下跌 60%，导致估值回调。 以史为鉴：紧扣时代脉搏，市场化改革破局供需难题。复盘历史，公司尊重市场 规律，多次市场化改革化解危机：1）1998 年国内产业结构调整，酒类需求减少， 公司通过市场化引进特约经销商、专卖店等，培育核心意见领袖，奠定价格的龙 头地位。2）2013-15 年受"限三公消费"等政策冲击，飞天价格最大下跌 56%， 公司市场化招商，开发生肖茅台酒等非标类产品，拓展商务消费场景，顺利成 为行业龙头。 对标爱马仕：匠心品质为核，品牌与时俱进。长期看，茅台酒仍具有不可替代性， 考虑到生产工艺特点，十五五期间茅台酒理论可供销售量预计约 5.2 万吨，增量 有限，高档奢侈属性有增强的基础。我们认为爱马仕对茅台酒的发展具有 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to financial engineering or quantitative analysis[1][2][4][6] - The content primarily focuses on market data, financing and securities lending balances, industry characteristics, ETF financing, and individual stock performance[9][12][27][41][46] - No quantitative models, factors, or related testing results are discussed in the provided documents[1][2][4][6]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 浩然斯坦 来源：雪球 过去几年国内无风险利率一直往下走，按经典估值模型的逻辑，茅台这种底子极厚、商业模式近乎完美的公司，估值本该跟着往上抬才对。但实际 情况是，它的市盈率从当年 73 倍的成长股溢价，跌到了如今 19 倍的公用事业估值中枢，这个反差非常强烈。 是不是茅台的商业模式不行了？答案肯定不是。酒还是那瓶酒，茅台的品牌壁垒依旧是独一份的，没什么能复制，它的生意本质从来没变过。 真正变的，是市场给茅台的价值定价锚，是市场对这家公司的未来预期，彻底变了。 简单说，市场给茅台的估值逻辑已经完成了根本性切换：从过去赚成长的钱，变成了现在赚股息的钱。一旦走到这一步，它对无风险利率的波动， 自然就没那么敏感了。 2019 年，茅台市盈率能冲到 73 倍，估值能跟创业板掰掰手腕，核心是市场给了它成长股溢价。那时候大家买茅台，看的是什么？是业绩和估值双 升的机会，是每年能稳稳保持 15% 以上的利润增长，是商务消费、礼品消费的持续爆发，更看中的是它独一份的永续经营能力和提价权。 但现在呢？ ...

食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒底部逐步夯实，重视龙头配置 价值—行业点评报告》-2026.3.17 《政策定调树立信心，白酒复苏趋势 明确—行业点评报告》-2026.3.17 《餐饮修复叠加通胀预期，调味品板 块值得重视—行业周报》-2026.3.15 春节提振消费表现，1-2 月社零增速环比提升 ——行业点评报告 张宇光（分析师） 张恒玮（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhanghengwei@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122020008 投资建议：春节消费集中释放，社零数据增长较好，建议关注头部企业 2026 年 1-2 月社零数据呈现稳步复苏态势，增速环比 2025 年 12 月实现较好回升， 其中粮油食品、烟酒类消费实现双位数高增，主要受益于春节错期下，假期消费 集中在 1-2 月释放。食品饮料板块市场预期以及估值均处于低位 ...

贵州茅台 20260317 贵州茅台新任管理层对未来 2-3 年的行业竞争格局和公司战略有何判断与规划？ 茅台新任管理层对未来 2-3 年的行业竞争持较为谨慎的态度，并对行业增长偏 向悲观。基于此判断，公司制定了以积极姿态参与市场份额竞争的战略。 在产 品与价格方面，公司决定尊重市场和消费者需求。对于部分非标产品，如精品 茅台和生肖酒，公司根据市场实际成交价下调了出厂价。例如，精品茅台的出 厂价从之前的 3,000 元左右下调至 2000 元左右，以贴近其 2,200 元至 2,500 元的市场价；生肖酒的出厂价也从约 2,500 元降至 1,800 至 1,900 元，以确 保经销商利润和渠道秩序的稳定。公司调整了产品结构，将依据市场需求决定 产品供应，减少非市场需求旺盛的高端产品投放，但若市场有需求仍会进行相 应投放。公司内部判断并接受飞天茅台批价在未来 2-3 年于 1,500 元上下波动。 在市场费用方面，公司计划今年（2026 年）为茅台酒划拨一定的市场管理费 用，用于品牌推广、向下触达消费者及人群扩散，这在以往较为少见。 摘要 茅台春节量价齐升验证需求刚性，批价一度达 1,700-1,850 元， ...

证券研究报告 白酒：改革中寻找底部价值 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 2026年3月17日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521030001 韦 毓 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525120002 核心观点 风险提示：1）宏观经济波动影响；2）消费复苏不及预期；3）行业竞争加剧风险。 上一轮白酒周期与地产投资相关度较高 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 12/01 12/04 12/07 12/10 13/01 13/04 13/07 13/10 14/01 14/04 14/07 14/10 15/01 15/04 15/07 15/10 16/01 16/04 16/07 16/10 17/01 白酒(中信) 沪深300 八项规定+酒鬼塑 化剂，白酒跑输行 业，但仅维持1年 白酒跟随大盘涨跌 白酒开始 跑出超额 (5) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 11/02 11/06 11/ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that Guizhou Moutai is entering a new era of direct-to-consumer (2C) marketing, which is expected to drive continuous growth. The company is shifting its sales strategy to a consignment model for various non-standard products, allowing direct access to consumers through the i Moutai platform. This transition aims to enhance price control and marketing transformation [7]. - The report forecasts total revenue for 2023 at 150.56 billion RMB, with a projected growth rate of 18.04%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 194.49 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 5.06% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 74.73 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 93.98 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 4.26% [1]. Financial Projections - Total revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 150,560 - 2024: 174,144 - 2025: 183,022 - 2026: 185,125 - 2027: 194,493 [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is projected as follows: - 2023: 74,734 - 2024: 86,228 - 2025: 90,107 - 2026: 90,139 - 2027: 93,980 [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be: - 2023: 59.68 - 2024: 68.86 - 2025: 71.96 - 2026: 71.98 - 2027: 75.05 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be: - 2023: 24.47 - 2024: 21.21 - 2025: 20.29 - 2026: 20.29 - 2027: 19.46 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Guizhou Moutai is entering a new era of direct-to-consumer (2C) marketing, which is expected to drive continuous growth. The company is shifting its sales strategy to a consignment model for various non-standard products, allowing direct access to consumers through the i Moutai platform. This transition aims to enhance price control and marketing transformation [7]. - The financial forecasts indicate total revenue growth from CNY 150.56 billion in 2023 to CNY 194.49 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.06%. Net profit is projected to increase from CNY 74.73 billion in 2023 to CNY 93.98 billion in 2027, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [1][8]. - The report highlights a significant change in the relationship with distributors, moving to a fixed commission model that encourages long-term customer cultivation and better brand service. This model is expected to reduce inventory pressure on distributors and enhance the company's ability to manage real sales data [7]. Financial Projections - Total revenue (CNY million): - 2023: 150,560 - 2024: 174,144 - 2025: 183,022 - 2026: 185,125 - 2027: 194,493 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 18.04% - 2024: 15.66% - 2025: 5.10% - 2026: 1.15% - 2027: 5.06% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (CNY million): - 2023: 74,734 - 2024: 86,228 - 2025: 90,107 - 2026: 90,139 - 2027: 93,980 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 19.16% - 2024: 15.38% - 2025: 4.50% - 2026: 0.04% - 2027: 4.26% [1] - Earnings per share (CNY): - 2023: 59.68 - 2024: 68.86 - 2025: 71.96 - 2026: 71.98 - 2027: 75.05 [1] - Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E): - 2023: 24.47 - 2024: 21.21 - 2025: 20.29 - 2026: 20.29 - 2027: 19.46 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the price of Moutai are attributed to strategic adjustments by the company, seasonal demand reduction post-Spring Festival, and cautious market behavior among distributors and resellers [3][4]. Price Fluctuations - Moutai's wholesale price has shown significant volatility, dropping from 1700 yuan/bottle at the beginning of March to around 1560 yuan/bottle by March 10, with a slight recovery to 1620 yuan/bottle on March 14 before declining again [3]. - In Jiangsu, the market price for scattered Moutai bottles is around 1560 yuan/bottle, while original box prices range from 1600 to 1610 yuan/bottle, indicating a decrease in demand during the traditional off-season [3]. Market Sentiment - The instability in prices has led distributors and resellers to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on risk management and avoiding excessive inventory purchases [4]. - A veteran reseller noted that the recent price fluctuations have made it difficult for even experienced traders to predict future trends, leading to a more conservative market stance [4]. New Business Model - Moutai has introduced new consignment policies for non-standard products, requiring distributors to pay a deposit to qualify for sales through the "i Moutai" platform, with a unified pricing strategy and a 5% rebate for distributors [5]. - This shift is seen as a move by Moutai to strengthen its pricing power and reduce market speculation, effectively transforming distributors into service providers rather than price manipulators [5]. Market Dynamics - Historically, there has been a significant price gap between Moutai's guided prices and market prices, often influenced by channel control. The recent adjustments are aimed at curbing market speculation and enhancing pricing stability [5]. - While the new measures may disrupt traditional channel dynamics, concerns remain regarding the uncertainties introduced by a more market-driven approach [5].