证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 12 日 贵州茅台（600519.SH） i 茅台强化消费者触达，市场化改革加速 消费品/食品饮料 1、《贵州茅台（600519）—新起点， 目标理性进取》2025-12-01 2、《贵州茅台（600519）—龙头担当， 降速调整》2025-10-29 3、《贵州茅台（600519）—市场动销 持续改善，凝聚共识强化信心》 2025-09-16 | 陈书慧 | S1090523010003 | | --- | --- | | | chenshuhui@cmschina.com.cn | | 刘成 | S1090523070012 | | | liucheng5@cmschina.com.cn | % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2 2 2 相对表现 -2 -17 -24 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Jan/25 May/25 Aug/25 Dec/25 (%) 贵州茅台 沪深300 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 公司近期召开经销商大会，并在 i 茅台上上线 500ml 飞天茅台及精品等主销单 品。我们认为，这一改革提升消费者触达，精准解决大众需 ...

还有分析指出，随着企业更加明确以量换价来稳住市场份额以后，茅台率先主动调整，i茅台上线飞天全系以后，批价管理更为科学且及时，普飞批价或逐 步企稳，在预期稳定的背景下，2026年春节旺季将是本轮行业调整末端的重点观察期。 国金证券指出，目前市场对白酒产业景气度预期已经处于绝对低位，龙头酒企逐步明确的量价规划将逐步消除市场对行业价盘、价格竞争的担忧，整体板块 下行风险相对可控，看好情绪回落背景下板块的安全边际。 从估值方面来看，吃喝板块估值处于历史低位，当前或为板块左侧布局较好时机。数据显示，截至上个交易日（1月9日）收盘，食品饮料ETF华宝 （515710）标的指数细分食品指数市盈率为20.16倍，位于近10年来5.88%分位点的低位，中长期配置性价比凸显。 展望后市，中信建投指出，复盘2012-2016年、2016-2021年、2022-2025年高端酒量价变化，白酒产业"五底阶段"（政策底、库存低、动销底、批价底、产销 底）与资本市场"三低一高"（预期低、估值低、公募持仓低、高分红）共振，结合近期茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖市场策略相继落地，站在春节旺季来临之 际，本轮白酒调整期拐点或将至，资本市场预期先行，白酒 ...

吃喝板块今日（1月12日）震荡上行，反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品饮料ETF华宝（515710）开盘后多 数时间红盘震荡，截至发稿，场内价格涨0.34%。 成份股方面，白酒大面积上攻，截至发稿，山西汾酒、泸州老窖、古井贡酒大涨超2%，五粮液、洋河 股份、今世缘涨超1%，贵州茅台等亦小幅飘红。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 · | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 露加 九轮 面线 工具 @ (2) > | | | 食品饮料ETF华宝 ① | | 515710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.59 | | | | | 515710 食品饮料ETF均值] 10:07 价 0.596 酒頭 0.002(0.34%) 均价 0.595 威交量 1800 IOPV 0. | | | | 11 6 6 11 | | 0 - 96 | | +0.002 +0.34% | | 0.596 | | | | | | | | | 0.3596 | ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时中收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月12日初 现企稳迹象，整体价格在连续探底后暂别颓势。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为8925 元，较昨日回升7元，价格中枢的跌势放缓。今日市场呈现"涨跌互现、整体微升"的分化格局。上涨产品 中，国窖1573表现强势，环比上涨10元/瓶，领涨全场。古井贡古20价格上涨7元/瓶。洋河梦之蓝M6+价格 上涨5元/瓶。青花郎价格上涨4元/瓶。青花汾20价格微涨1元/瓶。水晶剑南春价格与昨日持平。下跌产品方 面，飞天茅台与五粮液普五八代的回调幅度居前，价格分别环比下跌8元/瓶，i茅台推出平价飞天的定价锚 作用开始渗透终端，而普五八代迄今已三连跌，今日价格跌破800元关口，创下一个月来新低。精品茅台 价格下跌3元/瓶。习酒君品价格微跌1元/瓶。市场多数核心产品的价格企稳，是带动整体总价止跌回升的 主因。 | S | 洋河梦之蓝M6+ 52度/550ml | 584/瓶 | 5元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 古井贡古20 52度/500ml | 507/瓶 | 7元4 | | | 习酒 ...

教师队伍建设成效显著。以"我为良师"全员行动、全周期教师培养体系、"四有"好教师团队建设等重点 项目为抓手，系统推进教师队伍高质量发展。"十四五"期间，全市中小学教育高层次人才持续涌现：获 评国家级教学名师3人，教育部"双名计划"培养对象4人，"苏教名家"培养对象26人，省特级教师29人， 省级教学名师66人，正高级教师248人。 教育数字化转型升级。首创教育首席数据官（CDO）制度，建立项目全生命周期管理机制。创新数字 场景，打造集入学报名、中考服务、身心健康、校园安全等场景应用于一体的"锡学通"一站式服务大 厅。部署"锡教通"AI教育大模型，开发智能体广场，上线数字人"小锡老师"。发布人工智能教育蓝皮 书，全域推进AI教育。无锡经验在全国人工智能教育大会上推广，在2025世界数字教育大会进行展 示。 教育综合改革纵深推进。出台《无锡市深化新时代教育评价改革实施方案》。实施民办学校规范办学三 年行动计划，率先实施民办学校分类监管。落实"双减"政策，加大"五项管理""五项规范"飞行检查力 度，加强学科类隐形变异培训防范治理，开展校外培训机构专项整治百日攻坚行动，切实发挥对各类机 构的警示震慑作用。 "十四五" ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 1月6日,贵州茅台2026年丙午马年生肖酒(以下简称:2026马年生肖茅台)正式开售,"i茅台"App显示,开售后 不到一分钟即售罄。二级市场上也已出现显著溢价,1899元/瓶的马年生肖茅台经典款在得物、闲鱼等线 上平台成交价上涨至1950元—2499元/瓶不等。 记者 管悦 济南报道 开售即热炒 一瓶涨超四百元 "新一批马年生肖茅台还没到货,得再等两天。"1月8日,济南历城区一家酒行柜台前,老板于先生一边整理 货架,一边向几位顾客说道。 "不少顾客是出于赠礼、收藏,或是订婚、新生儿等宴席需要。"历下区一家酒行老板夏女士表示,预订的 消费者多为"硬需求"群体,"官方价1899元/瓶的经典款卖到2500元/瓶；定价2499元/瓶的另一版本,则已涨 至3000元/瓶以上。" 自1月1日起,贵州茅台通过"i茅台"App以1499元/瓶的指导价投放飞天茅台。1月3日,"i茅台"发布消息称, 元旦假期内,超10万名用户购买到自己心仪的产品,同时宣布调整购买政策,自1月4日至春节前,每人每日可 购买的飞天茅台(2026)最大数量从12瓶下调为6瓶。 不过,与线上平 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand structure of raw milk is improving, and the snack food sector continues to show upward momentum. The food and beverage index increased by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.7 percentage points. Sub-sectors such as processed foods (+6.7%), soft drinks (+5.8%), and snacks (+4.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Insights - The supply-demand dynamics for raw milk are optimizing, and the snack food sector is experiencing sustained growth. The recent policy by the Ministry of Commerce to implement safeguard measures on imported beef is expected to alleviate the impact on domestic industries, leading to a potential increase in beef prices over the next 2-3 years. The domestic dairy sector is facing challenges, with a continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory, which may lead to a widening supply-demand gap post-Spring Festival [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.7 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Qianwei Yangchun, Anji Food, and Yangyuan Beverage, while stocks like Jiabi You, *ST Chuntian, and Xianle Health saw declines [12][13]. Upstream Data - As of January 6, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,407 per ton, reflecting a 10.4% year-on-year decrease. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term [19][21]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the improving raw milk supply-demand balance and the growth in the snack food sector. Notable mentions include: - Yuran Agriculture: Expected to benefit from the recovery in raw milk prices. - Modern Dairy: Anticipated to gain from the overall industry improvement. - Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy: Expected to see positive impacts from the anticipated recovery in milk prices [10][11]. Snack Food Sector - The snack food sector is projected to continue its upward trend, particularly during the Spring Festival season. Companies such as Weilang Delicious, Ganyuan Food, and Yanjin Food are highlighted for their potential growth due to seasonal demand and strategic initiatives [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, with expectations for a recovery in sales and valuation improvements in 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring with a focus on balancing volume and price, and a potential turning point is anticipated in Q3 2026 [2][6]. - The report highlights the importance of consumer price index (CPI) as a key indicator for the consumer goods sector, predicting gradual improvements in food CPI throughout 2026 [2][6]. - The report recommends several high-quality liquor companies for long-term investment, including Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also suggesting attention to Wuliangye and other brands [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview of Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.12% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 2.46%, although it underperformed the broader market by 1.70 percentage points [5]. - Notable stock performances included Ziyuan Food (+33.97%), Qianwei Central Kitchen (+22.52%), and Anji Food (+18.34%) [5]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sub-sectors - The food and beverage industry lagged behind the Shenwan A index by 3.06 percentage points, with various sub-sectors underperforming, particularly beverages and dairy [33][34]. 3. Liquor Pricing Trends - As of January 10, 2026, the price of Moutai was reported at 1540 RMB for loose bottles, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 50 RMB, while the price for a case rose by 40 RMB to 1545 RMB [7][19]. - The report indicates that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks and suggesting a potential for price stability moving forward [7][19]. 4. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report emphasizes the shift in competitive strategies from price-based to quality-based approaches among consumer goods companies, with expectations for improved margins as raw material costs stabilize [2][6]. - Recommendations for consumer goods include Anjijia Food, Yili Group, and Tianwei Food, with a focus on the supply chain related to condiments and frozen foods [8]. 5. Dairy Industry Outlook - The dairy sector is expected to see an improved supply-demand balance in 2026, with growth potential in deep-processed products and low-temperature milk [8][9]. - Yili Group's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 11.3 billion, 12.2 billion, and 12.9 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [9].

近日，i茅台进展不断。 1月1日， i茅台正式上架2026年53度500ml飞天茅台酒，售价1499元/瓶，上线即"秒空" 。 为满足更多用户的需求， i茅台发布公告， 自1月4日至春节前，小茅将每人每日可购买的飞天53%vol 500ml贵州茅台酒（2026） 最大数 量调整为6瓶。 此前，每人每日最大可购买量为12瓶。 1月5日，茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华，党委副书记、总经理王莉1月4日率队赴贵阳调研i茅台平台配套物流保障情况。 1月9日，2026年茅台酒全国经销商会长联谊会在武汉召开。会上， 茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华宣布 ， 53%vol 500ml贵州茅台酒上线 第9日，i茅台新增用户已超270万，成交用户已超40万。 除了白酒销售以外，贵州茅台还进一步拓展其他业务。企查查显示，近日，贵州爱茅台数字科技有限公司成立，注册资本6亿元，经营范围 包含： 互联网直播技术服务；区块链技术相关软件和服务；集成电路芯片及产品销售；工业互联网数据服务等 。企查查股权穿透显示，该 公司由贵州茅台全资持股。 ...

茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华指出，茅台酒长期以来在销售领域的非市场化导致供需不适配，普通消费者难以公平、便捷、保真购酒。 今年1月，"i茅台"线上开售1499元茅台，引发市场关注。 陈华表示，i茅台的根本目的是解决触达和效率，摸清真实消费边界。在防止炒作、供需适配、市场稳定三条原则下，i茅台动态投放，让产品直达消费 端，有助于建立良好的渠道生态。 据茅台集团消息，1月9日，2026年茅台酒全国经销商会长联谊会在武汉召开。 数据显示，53%vol500ml贵州茅台（600519）酒上线第9日，i茅台新增用户已超270万，成交用户已超40万。 陈华表示，这样的触达能力和效率，线下渠道同等条件下难以企及，i茅台触达的用户大部分不是原有渠道中的核心客户，而是过去渠道难以覆盖未曾触 达的真实消费者。这次改革，重心是让产品各归其位，重建"金字塔"结构。其中，底座是飞天茅台酒，塔腰是精品酒、生肖酒，塔尖是陈年酒、文化酒。 同时，产品投放也要市场化，采取精细化、差异化的投放，根据经销商动销情况、区域市场承载能力动态调整，避免平均主义"铺货"，确保产品结构与市 场需求精准适配，以构建"随行就市"的产品价格体系。 近期，陈华多次 ...