如果有人在四年前说飞天茅台会跌到1600多，绝大多数人都会觉得这是天方夜谭。 那时候的茅台，是朋友圈的社交货币，是黄牛的摇钱树，是经销商的安全感，是投资者的理财产品。 一瓶难求，排队像春运，囤货像抢地皮，甚至有人买几箱茅台当嫁妆放进保险柜。 但今年的市场却像变了脸一样，双十一一过，价格直接打到了新地板。 批发价往1600元区间一路溜，速度快到让经销商来不及反应，囤货的人只能看着账面一点点往亏损深坑里掉。 曾经卖一瓶赚两千，如今卖一瓶亏一千，有人苦笑，有人心凉，有人彻底被震醒。 这不是一两天的行程骤变，而是茅台这家巨头在整个消费环境、库存结构、投资逻辑和社交文化巨大变化下，遭遇的系统性冲击。 几年前，飞天茅台就是一种稀缺的象征，瓶子还没到货，价格就先涨了一截。 那时候的市场有个普遍认知，只要能搞到货，就等于捡钱。 原因很简单，货少、需求旺，谁都抢不过供应链。 转折点出现在过去几年里持续的扩产。 市场上最直观的变化，是茅台的产量从十几年前的低水平一路上涨，厂区不断扩建，新车间新库房的规模一茬接一茬。 全国十几亿人口，平均两个就能分到一瓶，曾经的稀缺，在数量上被彻底稀释，供应一旦变多，囤货的策略就发生了翻天覆地的变 ...

| 证券代码 | 股票简称 | 权重 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | 总市值(亿元) | | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | sh600887 | 伊利股份 | 10.26% | 29.43 | 0.17% | | 1861.55 | ■ 食品饮料 | | sh600519 | 贵州茅台 | 9.82% | 1448.00 | -0.17% | | 18132.87 | 食品饮料 | | sz000858 | 五粮液 | 9.49% | 117.65 | -0.17% | 4 7 | 4566.71 | 食品饮料 | | sz002714 | 牧原股份 | 9.18% | 49.70 | -2.07% | | 2715.00 | 农林牧渔 | | sz000568 | 泸州老窖 | 6.62% | 135.76 | -0.09% | | 1998.31 | 食品饮料 | | sz300498 | 温氏股份 | 6.37% | 17.54 | -2.99% | | 1167.10 | 农林牧渔 | | sh600809 | 山西汾 ...

四大思维：茅台战略体系的四维支撑 茅台以惊人的战略思维为"舵"，定航向，明得失。在本次大会上，茅台明确"绝不为了年轻化而年轻化"，确保一切创新坚守品牌核心价值与文化遗产。这 种"有所为，有所不为"的智慧，进一步夯实了茅台品牌基石。 以用户思维为"心"，察需求，建共鸣。茅台将"以消费者为中心"融入血脉，"服务包容而不迎合"，在坚守53度飞天茅台品质底线的同时，通过味觉启蒙触达 年轻群体，构建"从文化符号找人"到"人找文化符号"的闭环，完成从产品交付到情感连接、价值认同的升华。 大会现场 11月28日，贵州茅台召开2025年第一次临时股东大会，备受行业关注。此次大会被业界视为释放茅台未来战略方向的重要信号，标志着茅台以战略定力为根 基，通过"四维合一"的系统升维和"包容而不迎合"的辩证智慧，在守正中创新，致力于从产品品牌跃升为穿越周期的文化符号与精神灯塔。 以科技思维为"桨"， 提效能，拓边界。茅台的科技赋能，并非动摇传统工艺的根基，而是"师古而不泥古"。通过大数据洞察消费趋势，利用物联网构建全 程溯源体系，以智能化提升生产稳定性与效率，以更精准的进行品质管控与创新表达。 以产业思维为"船"， 承重担，谋全局。茅 ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 12月1日，《中共贵州省委关于制定贵州省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称"《建议》"）发布，其中涉及酒产业的部分提到， 巩固提升酱香白酒产业集群，壮大优强企业舰队，深化"赤水河谷 中国酱香"产区品牌建设，巩固全国重要的白酒生产基地领先地位，打造具有全球影响 力的历史经典产业集群。优化调整白酒产品结构和营销策略，拓展"卖酒向卖生活方式转变"路径，丰富多元消费场景，更好适应市场需求。实施"黔酒出 海"专项行动，支持企业大力开拓国际市场。做强做大先进装备制造产业集群。 不仅如此，《建议》还提出，要加快传统产业转型升级，其中就包含酱香白酒产业。不仅要深化"赤水河谷中国酱香"产区品牌建设，巩固全国重要的白酒 生产基地领先地位，打造具有全球影响力的历史经典产业集群；还要优化调整白酒产品结构和营销策略，拓展"卖酒向卖生活方式转变"路径，丰富多元消 费场景，更好适应市场需求。 在业内人士看来，《建议》所提及的内容，将为以茅台为代表的酱香白酒龙头企业带来利好。因为《建议》在诠释产区品牌建设时，明确表示要"壮大优 强企业舰队"。不仅如此，《建议》中提出 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the essential consumer goods sector is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1] Core Insights - In November 2025, four out of eight monitored essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, while four experienced negative growth, with the growth sectors being condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and catering services [29] - The overall growth rates across all sectors have slowed compared to the previous month, attributed to macroeconomic conditions, structural industry challenges, and seasonal factors [29] Subsector Summaries Mid-to-High-End and Above Baijiu - Revenue for the mid-to-high-end and premium baijiu sector in November was RMB 24 billion, down 13.0% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue from January to November at RMB 349.2 billion, a decline of 6.2% [30] - The market is experiencing simultaneous declines in both volume and price, with a conservative consumer spending trend [30] Mass-Market and Below Baijiu - Revenue for the mass-market and lower-tier baijiu industry reached RMB 18.9 billion in November, marking a 3.3% year-on-year decline, with cumulative revenue from January to November totaling RMB 180.9 billion, down 8.5% [30] - The production of baijiu in October was 276,000 kiloliters, down 18.3% year-on-year, indicating a challenging market environment [30] Beer - The domestic beer industry generated revenue of RMB 9.9 billion in November, a 2.0% year-on-year decline, with cumulative revenue from January to November at RMB 162.6 billion, representing a 0.2% year-on-year increase [31] - Seasonal demand has decreased due to a nationwide temperature drop, leading to subdued overall demand [31] Condiments - The condiments sector reported revenue of RMB 418 billion in November, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with cumulative revenue from January to November at RMB 4,129 billion, up 1.3% [18] Frozen Foods - The frozen foods sector achieved revenue of RMB 81.6 billion in November, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with cumulative revenue from January to November at RMB 964 billion, up 2.2% [22] Soft Drinks - Revenue for the soft drinks sector was RMB 388 billion in November, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with cumulative revenue from January to November at RMB 6,583 billion, up 4.1% [24] Catering - The catering industry reported revenue of RMB 130.4 billion in November, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with cumulative revenue from January to November at RMB 1,607 billion, down 0.7% [26]

20只个股今日获机构买入型评级，云南白药最新评级被调高，7股机构首次关注。 机构今日买入型评级记录 | 代码 | 简称 | 机构名称 | 最新评级 | 上次评级 | 预测目标价（元） | 最新收盘价（元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 华创证券 | 强推 | 强推 | 2600.00 | 1448.00 | | 605499 | 东鹏饮料 | 华创证券 | 强推 | 强推 | 340.00 | 269.03 | | 002353 | 杰瑞股份 | 华泰证券 | 增持 | 增持 | 73.20 | 62.07 | | 000034 | 神州数码 | 国泰海通 | 增持 | 增持 | 55.97 | 41.27 | | 605333 | 沪光股份 | 华创证券 | 强推 | 未评级 | 37.90 | 31.30 | | 688472 | 阿特斯 | 中金公司 | 跑赢行业 | 跑赢行业 | 19.00 | 16.01 | | 601155 | 新城控股 | 中金公司 | 跑赢行业 | 跑赢行业 | 18.50 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][15]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in consumer demand as the year-end approaches, with a positive outlook for 2026 [3][10]. - The report highlights a differentiation in the performance of various sub-sectors, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in leading companies within the sector, particularly those with strong growth potential and market positioning [3][10][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.03% this week, with A-shares remaining flat and H-shares up by 0.47% [1]. - The top performers in the sector include Hai Xin Food, Jia Long Co., and Yan Tang Dairy, with significant weekly gains [1]. 2. Sub-sector Analysis - **Alcoholic Beverages**: The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a bottoming phase, with premium brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao expected to gain market share [2][10]. - **Beverages**: The beverage sector is experiencing stable demand recovery, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage recommended for investment [2][14]. - **Food**: The snack segment is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in konjac products, with companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi recommended [2][11]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Moutai, Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Wei Long, and Luzhou Laojiao, reflecting a diverse range of opportunities across the sector [3][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth trajectories, particularly in the context of changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [2][10][15]. 4. Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for key companies indicate a positive growth trajectory, with Moutai expected to achieve revenues of approximately 183.5 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][15]. - Other companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Baba Foods are also projected to see significant revenue growth, driven by market expansion and product innovation [15][17].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600696 | *ST岩石 | 4.78 | -2.85% | 6.49万 | 3115.55万 | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | 65.50 | -1.06% | 5.83万 | 3.83亿 | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | 193.78 | -0.27% | 3.36万 | 6.52亿 | | 600702 | 舍得酒业 | 62.45 | -0.24% | 7.38万 | 4.61亿 | | 002646 | 大佑德酒 | 9.46 | -0.21% | 2.89万 | 2735.60万 | | 600519 | 票外茅台 | 1448.00 | -0.17% | 2.73万 | 39.62亿 | | 000858 | 五粮液 | 117.65 | -0.17% | 12.09万 | 14.23 乙 | | 000995 | 三四级别 | 12.67 | -0.16% | 3.17万 | 4032.83万 | | 000568 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the broader market [19] Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in. The focus should be on high-quality leading companies with strong performance certainty, such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have stable pricing and attractive dividend yields [2][3] - The food and beverage sector has shown mixed performance, with processed food leading gains while liquor, particularly white liquor, has seen declines. The report highlights the importance of brand value and pricing stability in determining long-term competitiveness in the white liquor market [3][6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry increased by 0.07% in the week of November 24-28, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.40%. Among sub-sectors, processed food led with a gain of 5.64%, while white liquor fell by 0.73% [3][11] - The top five performing stocks in the food and beverage sector included Hai Xin Food (+45.38%) and Jia Long Co. (+16.29%), while the worst performers included *ST Rock (-11.03%) and Nanqiao Food (-7.35%) [3][9] White Liquor Insights - Guizhou Moutai's recent shareholder meeting emphasized a commitment to high-quality development over short-term metrics, focusing on sustainable value creation. The company plans to enhance its marketing strategy, manage production capacity, and pursue international market opportunities while reinforcing shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [3][6] - Recent government policies aim to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, which may benefit leading liquor companies with strong brand and channel advantages. The focus is on optimizing supply structures and improving product quality to stimulate effective demand [3][6]

华创证券研报指出，贵州茅台于11月28日召开股东大会，茅台新董事长陈华首次亮相资本市场，明确未 来茅台不会唯指标论，奠定公司长期高质发展主基调。在行业深度调整期中，茅台始终保持自身战略定 力，并积极做出变革为投资者、经销商、消费者等各利益方创造价值，彰显龙头担当与责任。该行维持 公司25-27年EPS预测为72.44/74.89/80.18元，维持目标价2600元及"强推"评级。 ...