Moderna Shares Spike on H5N1 News—What's Next for Investors?

Stock Performance and Market Reaction - Shares of Moderna surged over 12% following news of the first confirmed death from H5N1 bird flu in the US, reaching a peak of 14% before retreating to $47 53 after hours [1] - The stock has since declined further, trading at$44 56, down 6 25% from its previous close [2] - Despite the recent surge, the stock has dropped over 60% in 2024, making it one of the worst-performing stocks across all sectors [10] Pipeline and Future Prospects - Moderna is forecasting approvals for 10 new vaccines in the next three years, including three candidates planned for launch in 2025 [3] - The company is collaborating with Merck & Co to develop personalized cancer vaccines, with its most advanced candidate, V940-Keytruda, entering Phase III trials in 2024 [5] - Moderna received a $250 million upfront payment from Merck under the partnership, with both companies sharing development costs and potential profits equally [7] Financials and Revenue Streams - Moderna generates approximately$3 billion in annual revenue, with a significant portion coming in the third and fourth quarters due to flu season [8] - The company reported $1 9 billion in revenue in its November earnings report, bringing the total for the first three quarters of 2024 to$2 2 billion [9] - Moderna has a 9 billion cash balance, which is substantial compared to some biotech companies with products already on the market [8] R&D and Profitability Concerns - Moderna's R&D spending is projected to be around 4 7 billion annually, revised downward but still significant [10] - The company is currently not profitable, as the funds from its COVID-19 vaccine profits have dried up, contributing to the stock's poor performance [10] Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets - Analysts have a consensus Hold rating on Moderna, with a 12-month price target of $78 83, representing a 76 92$179 00 and a low forecast of $40 00, indicating mixed sentiment among analysts [4] - Despite being on Barron's list of stocks to watch in 2025, Moderna was not included in MarketBeat's list of top five stocks recommended by analysts [13]