Moderna Stock Heads for Worst-Ever Day After Reducing Revenue Forecast

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Moderna Inc has lowered its 2025 revenue forecast to a range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, reflecting a $1 billion reduction from previous estimates due to weaker demand for its Covid-19 and RSV vaccines [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The adjustment in revenue forecast indicates that most of the revenue is expected to materialize in the second half of 2025 [1] - The stock price of Moderna has dropped 24% to $32.11, marking its lowest level since April 2020 and indicating a significant decline in market confidence [2] - Moderna is facing its third consecutive annual loss and has already decreased more than 22% in the first two weeks of January 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Options traders are actively speculating, with 40,000 puts and 77,000 calls exchanged, which is four times the average intraday volume [3] - The most popular options are the January 2025 38 call and the 34.50 call, with new positions being opened in both [3] - The sentiment shift is reflected in Moderna's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 52%, which is in the low 1st percentile of annual readings, indicating a more call-biased stance among short-term options traders [4]