中信建投：供减需增 锑价中枢中长期将确定性抬升

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a potential supply-demand imbalance in the antimony market, with a forecasted increase in antimony prices due to declining production and rising demand from various industries [1] Supply Side - Antimony production in China for the period of January to November 2024 is projected to be 50,400 tons for antimony concentrate, 65,600 tons for antimony ingots, and 96,700 tons for antimony oxide, reflecting year-on-year declines of 9%, 11%, and 7% respectively [1] Demand Side - Domestic photovoltaic glass production in China is expected to reach 27,336,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 31% [1] - The apparent demand for bromine is projected at 125,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] Market Dynamics - The scarcity of antimony resources, coupled with a decline in ore grades, is likely to lead to a systematic decrease in production levels [1] - The increasing consumption of antimony driven by industries such as photovoltaics and flame retardants is expected to create a supply shortage, leading to a definitive upward adjustment in antimony price levels in the medium to long term [1]