Where Will Moderna Be in 3 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Moderna is transitioning from a focus on its coronavirus vaccine to a more traditional pharmaceutical business model, with expectations of launching new products and managing financial constraints in the coming years [1][3][12] Group 1: Financial Outlook - Moderna's trailing-12-month revenue is over $5 billion, with reported operating losses of $2.7 billion, indicating financial pressure to produce in-demand medicines [5] - The company plans to reduce its annual research and development investment by $1.1 billion by 2027, reflecting a shift in financial strategy [4] Group 2: Product Pipeline and Potential - Moderna aims to launch a total of 10 products over the next three years, with key candidates including a combination shot for influenza and COVID, an influenza vaccine, and a next-generation COVID vaccine, each potentially generating over $1 billion in annual sales [4][6] - The Department of Health and Human Services has committed $590 million to support Moderna's pandemic influenza vaccine program, which may enter late-stage trials soon, reducing risks associated with advancing additional pipeline programs [7] Group 3: Oncology and Future Growth - Moderna is developing seven oncology drugs in mid-to-late-stage clinical trials, particularly focusing on individualized neoantigen therapies (INTs) that leverage the genetic sequence of tumor cells to enhance immune response against cancer [9][10] - Successful commercialization of any oncology candidates could signal a positive future for the company, even if immediate revenue inflow is limited due to the niche markets targeted [10][11] Group 4: Investment Horizon - Investors should be prepared for a long-term investment, with expectations of significant growth materializing around early 2028, rather than in the immediate future [12][13] - The company must demonstrate the viability of its clinical programs within the next three years to maintain investor confidence and stock value [15]