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Should You Buy Energy Transfer Stock Now That It's Over $20?
ETEnergy Transfer(ET) The Motley Fool·2025-01-22 11:17

Energy Transfer's Performance and Growth - Energy Transfer's units soared 42% last year and continued to rally in early 2024, pushing its unit price above 20[1]Thecompanyexpectedtogeneratebetween20 [1] - The company expected to generate between 15.3 billion and 15.5billionofadjustedEBITDAin2024,a1215.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2024, a 12% increase from 2023 [2] - Growth was fueled by expansion projects, acquisitions, and strong market conditions, including deals for Lotus Midstream (1.5 billion), Crestwood Equity Partners (7.1billion),andWTGMidstream(7.1 billion), and WTG Midstream (3.1 billion) [3] - The company reported volume records across several categories in the third quarter [3] Expansion Projects and Market Opportunities - Energy Transfer secured several new organic expansion projects, including the 2.7billionHughBrinsonPipeline,whichwillprovideadditionalnaturalgastransportationcapacityfromthePermianBasintotheGulfCoast[4]Thecompanyhasseveralpotentialprojectsunderdevelopmenttosupportgrowingnaturalgasdemand,drivenbyAIdatacentersandotherfactors[4]ForecastersexpectUSelectricitydemandtoaccelerateoverthecomingdecades,poweredbyAIdatacenters,electricvehicles,andonshoringofmanufacturing,providingmultipleopportunitiesforEnergyTransfertoexpanditsnaturalgaspipelinesystem[9]ValuationandFinancialProfileEnergyTransfertradesatabottomofthebarrelvaluationcomparedtoitspeersinthemidstreamsector,withahighdistributionyieldof642.7 billion Hugh Brinson Pipeline, which will provide additional natural gas transportation capacity from the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast [4] - The company has several potential projects under development to support growing natural gas demand, driven by AI data centers and other factors [4] - Forecasters expect U S electricity demand to accelerate over the coming decades, powered by AI data centers, electric vehicles, and onshoring of manufacturing, providing multiple opportunities for Energy Transfer to expand its natural gas pipeline system [9] Valuation and Financial Profile - Energy Transfer trades at a bottom-of-the-barrel valuation compared to its peers in the midstream sector, with a high distribution yield of 6 4% [5][6] - The company has a strong investment-grade balance sheet, with a leverage ratio in the lower half of its target range of 4 to 4 5 times, and one of the lowest dividend payout ratios in the space at around 50% of its cash flow [7] - Energy Transfer's growth prospects have strengthened, with a few billion dollars of organic expansion projects under construction and several more under development, including the Lake Charles LNG export terminal [8][9] Strategic Acquisitions and Future Growth - Energy Transfer has the financial flexibility to continue consolidating the midstream sector and is always on the lookout for accretive acquisitions that enhance its strategic position [10] - The company expects to grow its distribution by 3% to 5% per year, supported by its strong financial profile and visible growth opportunities [11] - Energy Transfer remains a compelling buy above 20 per unit, offering a high-yielding distribution and a still-cheap valuation [11]