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There's a lot of uncertainty right now about tariffs. But in my view, the U.S. will be a net winner out of the trade wars, and the result will be an environment favorable to companies like Energy Transfer (ET 1.64%). A lot could go wrong The tariffs appear to be tactical and strategic. Tactically, they stimulate trade deals that remove impediments for U.S. exporters by creating a more level playing field. Strategically, they encourage more industrial activity and investment in the U.S. Even if President Tru ...

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer is positioned as a reliable investment amidst market volatility, particularly due to its resilience against tariffs and economic downturns [1][2]. Company Overview - Energy Transfer is a midstream company providing pipeline, storage, and terminal services for natural gas, NGLs, crude oil, and refined products, operating over 125,000 miles of pipeline across 44 states [3]. - The company accounts for approximately 20% of the global NGL exports, functioning as a "toll-road operator" between upstream and downstream companies [3]. Economic Resilience - Midstream pipeline companies like Energy Transfer are less affected by price fluctuations in oil and natural gas, as they earn revenue through tolls on their infrastructure [4]. - This makes Energy Transfer an ideal investment during uncertain economic times [4]. Regulatory Environment - Recent developments indicate that Energy Transfer's regulatory challenges are easing, particularly following a North Dakota Supreme Court ruling that ordered Greenpeace to pay the company $660 million in damages [6]. - The Trump Administration's push for increased domestic energy production further supports the company's operational environment [6]. Growth Drivers - The rising energy demands from AI and cloud data centers are expected to provide significant growth opportunities for Energy Transfer, which is expanding its capacity in the Permian Basin [7]. - A recent partnership with CloudBurst to supply natural gas to an AI-focused data center in Central Texas exemplifies this growth strategy [7]. Financial Performance - Energy Transfer has experienced stable earnings growth, with revenue expanding at a CAGR of 4% from 2014 to 2024, and EPU rising at a CAGR of 8% during the same period [9]. - Analysts project revenue and EPU growth rates of 5% and 9%, respectively, from 2024 to 2027 [9]. Dividend Policy - As a master limited partnership (MLP), Energy Transfer has consistently raised its dividend for 12 consecutive years, with a forward yield of 8%, significantly higher than its peer Kinder Morgan's 4.6% [10]. - The company has allocated nearly 100% of its EPU to dividends over the past year [10]. Valuation Metrics - Energy Transfer's stock trades at a low valuation of 11 times this year's EPU, which, combined with its high yield and resilient business model, limits downside potential [11]. - In contrast, Kinder Morgan trades at 21 times its forward EPU despite slightly faster growth [11]. Insider Activity - Insider sentiment appears positive, with Energy Transfer's insiders purchasing seven times more shares than they sold over the past year, indicating confidence in the company's prospects [12]. - This contrasts sharply with Kinder Morgan, where insiders sold 18 times as many shares as they bought during the same period [12]. Investment Thesis - Energy Transfer is characterized as a safe-haven investment, particularly suitable for uncertain market conditions, and is viewed as an undervalued dividend play [13].

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market volatility presents opportunities for income investors to acquire shares of companies with solid dividend payouts, particularly those that have seen significant price declines of 20% or more. Group 1: Energy Transfer LP - Energy Transfer LP's units have decreased just over 20% from their previous high earlier this year, indicating potential for recovery as they are considered oversold [2] - The company's revenue is stable and not directly affected by oil and gas prices, which positions it well amid economic fluctuations [3] - Demand for Energy Transfer's midstream assets is expected to grow due to the rising need for electricity from data centers driven by artificial intelligence [4] - The company offers a forward distribution yield of 7.73% and anticipates annual distribution growth of 3% to 5% [5] Group 2: Occidental Petroleum - Occidental Petroleum's share price has dropped approximately 28% from its high earlier this year, making it a potentially attractive investment with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8, compared to the S&P 500 energy average of 13.6 [6] - The company is recognized for its extensive oil and gas holdings in the U.S. and its leadership in carbon capture initiatives, which adds to its appeal [7] - Occidental's forward dividend yield has increased to over 2.5%, enhancing its attractiveness as a dividend stock [8] Group 3: United Parcel Service - United Parcel Service's shares have fallen around 27% from their high earlier this year, returning to levels seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic [9] - Concerns exist regarding UPS reducing its volume with Amazon by over 50% by the second half of 2026, but this move is aimed at improving profitability by focusing on higher-margin shipments [10] - UPS is expected to maintain strong business fundamentals due to high barriers to entry and increasing demand for e-commerce and tighter supply chains [11] - The company offers a forward dividend yield of 6.65% and has a strong track record of increasing its dividend payout for 16 consecutive years [11]

Core Insights - JR Research is recognized as a top analyst in technology, software, and internet sectors, focusing on growth and GARP strategies [1] - The investment approach emphasizes identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities with strong price action to generate alpha above the S&P 500 [1][2] - The investment group Ultimate Growth Investing specializes in high-potential opportunities across various sectors, targeting stocks with robust fundamentals and turnaround potential [3] Investment Strategy - The focus is on growth investing opportunities that offer significant upside potential while avoiding overhyped and overvalued stocks [2] - The strategy includes capitalizing on battered stocks that have substantial recovery possibilities [2] - The investment outlook typically spans 18 to 24 months for the thesis to materialize [3] Group Characteristics - Ultimate Growth Investing is designed for investors looking to capitalize on growth stocks with strong fundamentals and buying momentum [3] - The group targets turnaround plays at highly attractive valuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer is making significant progress in converting its Lake Charles facility from a natural gas import terminal to a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal, which is expected to enhance its long-term growth outlook and increase its high-yielding distribution [2][6]. Project Development - Energy Transfer has been working on the Lake Charles LNG project for over 10 years, initially proposing a capacity of nearly 16.5 million tons per year for LNG production and export [3]. - The project faced setbacks, including Shell's withdrawal in 2020 due to the pandemic's impact on the LNG market, but Shell returned as a customer in 2022 with a 20-year agreement for 2.1 million tons of LNG per year [4][5]. New Partnership - Energy Transfer has signed an agreement with MidOcean Energy, which will fund 30% of the project's multibillion-dollar construction cost in exchange for 30% of the LNG production, approximately 5 million tons per year [6][7]. - MidOcean Energy's involvement is expected to significantly reduce the capital outlay required by Energy Transfer and enhance the project's commercial viability [8]. Financial Implications - The project is anticipated to generate substantial future cash flows from both the retained stake in the facility and increased gas volumes transported through Energy Transfer's pipelines [9]. - The company aims to make a positive Final Investment Decision (FID) by the end of this year, bolstered by a significant percentage of LNG capacity already under contract [7][9].

In a time of economic uncertainty and potential tariff repercussions, investors are searching for stable assets with attractive returns. Energy Transfer TodayETEnergy Transfer$15.92 -0.76 (-4.53%) 52-Week Range$14.60▼$21.45Dividend Yield8.17%P/E Ratio12.43Price Target$22.09Add to WatchlistEnergy Transfer LP NYSE: ET, a key player in North America's midstream energy infrastructure, has recently garnered significant attention for that reason and several others. Despite reaching a new 52-week low earlier in t ...