Intel Vs. AMD: Server Battle, AI Race Frame Earnings Test

Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is at a critical juncture with Intel and AMD preparing to report Q4 earnings, with investor sentiment being reshaped by dynamics in the PC, server, and AI markets [1] Intel Analysis - Intel faces a tough near-term outlook due to limited market growth, CPU share losses, and ongoing PC weakness [2] - The server segment is nearing a bottom, but AI remains a significant gap in Intel's pipeline [2] - M&A speculation surrounds Intel, but regulatory challenges and growing dependence on TSMC pose hurdles [2] - A potential breakthrough in Intel's 18A node could offer a lifeline, though success remains unproven [3] AMD Analysis - AMD has gained server CPU share but is highly sensitive to AI GPU demand for 2025 [3] - Q4 earnings are expected to be in-line, but PC headwinds and muted embedded/gaming demand could pressure Q1 results [4] - AMD's 2025 AI revenue is projected at $8 billion, below the$9 billion consensus [4] - Nvidia holds over 80% of the AI market share, positioning AMD as a secondary player [4] Competitive Landscape - AMD appears better positioned with steady server CPU gains and AI exposure, though its long-term AI market share remains uncertain [5] - Intel is grappling with manufacturing uncertainty and AI irrelevance, but positive 18A developments could shift sentiment [5] - Investors are evaluating whether Intel's current position is solid or a mirage, while AMD's AI strategy faces a reality check [5]