Group 1 - Intel's stock has declined by 21.8% in less than a month, from $54.32 on January 22, 2026, to $42.49, due to a weaker than expected outlook for Q1 FY'26 and concerns about its foundry operations [1] - The ongoing correction suggests potential for further downside, with a price target of $30 being plausible, as the stock has reached this level in the past five years [3] - Historical data indicates that the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips (defined as a decline of 30% or more within 30 days) is -0.2%, despite a median peak return of 37% [4][10] Group 2 - Intel has experienced three instances since January 1, 2010, where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was activated [6] - To assess the risk of a dip indicating a worsening business situation, metrics such as revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength must be evaluated [7] - A multi-asset portfolio approach is suggested to mitigate risks and take advantage of potential upside, as individual selections can be volatile [8]

Core Insights - The market has shifted its focus from beating earnings expectations to the importance of future guidance, as demonstrated by Intel's recent performance [1][3][8] Company Performance - Intel reported earnings of $0.15 per share and revenue of $13.7 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.08 per share and $13.4 billion, respectively [1] - Despite the positive earnings report, Intel's stock fell by 17% the following day due to a disappointing revenue outlook for the next quarter, projected between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, below the analyst expectation of $12.51 billion [2][3] Market Dynamics - The current earnings season indicates that markets are prioritizing forward visibility and growth momentum over past performance [3][8] - Major technology companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple, are expected to report earnings soon, with a focus on guidance related to artificial intelligence spending [4] Investment Trends - There is growing impatience in the market regarding AI investments, with companies that demonstrate clear monetization in cloud services being rewarded, while those that spend aggressively without measurable impacts face declines [5] - The technology sector, representing over a third of the S&P 500's market capitalization, must show that AI spending translates into real demand and earnings growth to justify elevated valuations [6] Earnings Overview - Early earnings data shows strong profit growth, with most companies beating estimates; however, growth is concentrated among a small number of large firms, making the market susceptible to negative surprises [7]

First Principles Partners is an equity research analyst specializing in technology, innovation, and sustainability investment. My unique approach, "First Principles," involves breaking down complex problems to their most basic elements in terms of financial and technology, enabling me to uncover overlooked investment opportunities.With a strong background in investment, private equity and venture capital, I have a proven track record of delivering strong returns for readers. Articles on Seeking Alpha focus ...

The industrial tool maker announced a higher dividend payout for the year as net profit and revenue dropped. ...

【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 作者 Johnny Zhang，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公 众号对文中观点结论认可。 2025 年底，在持续政策扶持和机构唱多的双重驱动下，不少"AI 概念股"走出了一波陡峭的暴 涨行情。 但尴尬的是，这些公司的业绩却迟迟没有跟上。 股价先于业绩起飞，在市场里其实是常有的 事，但脱离当前基本面去赌长期增长，本身就风险不小。 随着公司盈利下滑，市盈率这类前瞻估值指标会变得高得离谱，有时候资金跟风炒作的热度， 甚至能把股价推到基本面完全撑不起的高度。 在 2025 年四季度财报发布前，英特尔（INTC）已经从2025年8月的低点飙涨了180%。 要知道，这段时间里英特尔营收不过是持平或个位数低速增长，自由现金流更是连续第四年下 滑。 市场之所以愿意买单，是押注它的数据中心和晶圆代工业务能成功翻身。 财报发布前，市场情绪一片火热，投资者都觉得英特尔已经熬过了增长低谷，这才把股价越推 越高。可等到公司发布 2026 财年一季度的疲软业绩指引后，大家才被泼了一盆冷水。 公司明确表示，本季度营收会下滑，非公认会计准则下的每股收益基本持平，毛利率还会大 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 英特尔采用其首款1.8纳米（nm·nm=1/10^9米，18A）工艺制造的中央处理器（CPU）获得了积极 评价。这提升了市场对英特尔半导体制造能力的信心，并可能有助于其争取代工（半导体合同制 造）客户。 自2021年以来，英特尔一直在推行IDM 2.0战略，对其此前以设计为中心的半导体业务进行重组。 该公司旨在加强其内部制造能力，同时在代工业务方面取得成功，以重夺昔日IDM地位。分析师 指出，在美国政府大力资助旨在扩大国内半导体供应链的背景下，这一战略正在逐步实现。新款英 特尔CPU被视为其制造能力提升的切实例证。一些分析师认为，此次战略对市场的影响可能更多 地集中在三星电子而非目前的代工领军企业台积电身上。 据业内人士27日透露，搭载英特尔下一代处理器"酷睿Ultra系列3"（代号"Panther Lake"）的笔记 本电脑正在陆续发布。Panther Lake的基准测试结果也已公布。同日在韩国发布"Galaxy Book6 Ultra"和"Galaxy Book6 Pro"的三星电子表示，该处理器"显著提升了能效和处理性能"。 IT媒体The Verge和Wire ...

Core Viewpoint - Intel has been one of the biggest laggards in the market in recent years, experiencing a significant decline in share prices due to falling revenues and increasing net losses, indicating challenges in the company's turnaround efforts [1]. Company Performance - Intel's shares have fallen as revenues dropped, leading to net losses that have accumulated over time [1]. Market Position - The company is facing difficulties in its turnaround strategy, which has not yet yielded positive results [1].

Core Viewpoint - Intel has obtained a patent for "interconnects for advanced integrated circuit structure manufacturing," indicating its ongoing innovation in semiconductor technology [1] Group 1 - The patent is officially titled "用于高级集成电路结构制造的间距划分互连" and has been granted with the announcement number CN109860188B [1] - The application date for the patent was October 2018, suggesting a long-term investment in research and development by Intel [1]

此外考虑将一部分资产配置于黄金（对冲货币贬值与尾部风险，但留意近期贵金属连续强劲刷新记录高位，已经严重超买）、其他大宗商品（对冲通胀与地 缘风险）以及基础设施等能产生稳定收益的实物资产。并保留一定比例的现金或短期国债，不仅能在市场暴跌时提供缓冲，更能捕捉未来出现的高确定性机 会。 过去几个月来，科技等增长型板块的表现逊于周期性板块和价值股。但是，大型科技公司凭借扎实的现金流和对AI趋势的卡位，在经济不确定性中反而更 像资金"避难所"，仍有能力带领市场创新高。机构预期，盈利增长、周期性上涨以及人工智能的广泛应用，都将支撑标普500指数和市场波动率，而市场脆 弱性和高风险政策则会加剧市场不稳定性。但无疑，上涨的路径将更为震荡，且其领导地位正从"增长引擎"逐渐转变为"市场系统性风险的集中体现"。 由于近几周市场几乎都被紧张的地缘政治局势所牵引，掩盖了一个事实：本轮财报季的科技公司业绩其实不乏亮点。实际上在已经公布业绩的科技股中，台 积电（财报和指引双双超出市场预期）、网飞（业绩优于预期，但对本季度和今年全年的业绩指引谨慎）和英特尔（营收和每股收益超预期，但本季度业绩 指引低于预测）都交出了不错的成绩单。本周市场继续 ...

行业评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 1 月 26 日 星期一 【行业评论】 科技行业周报：英特尔财报证实 CPU 紧缺 黄晨 +852-2532 1954 chen.huang@firstshanghai.com.hk 1 月 22 日盘后，英特尔（INTC）发布 25Q4 财报，营收 136.7 亿美元，同比下降 4.1%， 环比增长 3%。其中客户端计算业务（CCG）业务营收 81.9 亿美元，同比下降 6.6%； 数据中心和人工智能（DCAI）业务营收 47.4 亿美元，同比增长 8.9%；代工业务（Intel Foundry Services）营收 45.1 亿美元，同比增长 3.8%。26Q1 营收指引在 117 亿至 127 亿美元区间。公司的指引低于预期，原因在于产能紧张，预计 26Q2 开始供应 逐步回升。此外公司表示其 18A 良率仍未达到行业领先水平，仍将继续提升。关于 14A，目前有两家潜在客户正在探索基于此工艺制造的芯片，潜在客户对 14A PDK 0.5 版本的反馈是积极的。 我们认为英特尔业绩会证实了 CPU 的紧缺。 ...