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This prison stock is up 142% since election; here's why
GEOThe GEO (GEO) Finbold·2025-01-23 11:22

Industry Overview - The private prison industry has been a leading sector in the stock market since November 2024, with Geo Group (NYSE: GEO) being a decisive winner of the rally [1] - Geo Group's stock has soared approximately 142% since the election and is up 22.43% year-to-date (YTD) as of January 23 [1] Geo Group's Performance and Drivers - Geo Group's stock price has surged above its 2017 highs, reaching 34.26atpresstime,drivenbythenewadministration′simmigrationpolicy[2]−Thecompanyisexpectedtobenefitdirectlyfromthenewpolicy,asitoperatesimmigrationdetentioncenterswithinitsportfolio[4]−The13thAmendmentprovisionsallowingforindenturedservitudeaspunishmentremaininplaceinmanyUSstates,whichcouldleadtoanupsurgeincheaplaborforprivateprisoncompanies[5]−Approximately3034.26 at press time, driven by the new administration's immigration policy [2] - The company is expected to benefit directly from the new policy, as it operates immigration detention centers within its portfolio [4] - The 13th Amendment provisions allowing for indentured servitude as punishment remain in place in many U S states, which could lead to an upsurge in cheap labor for private prison companies [5] - Approximately 30% of California's firefighters are inmates, highlighting the recent usage of such labor in the state [6] Analyst Expectations and Ratings - Geo Group's shares are rated as a 'moderate buy' on average on TipRanks, with an average price target of 41.50, forecasting a 20.82% rise in the coming 52 weeks [8] - Only four analyst firms revised their predictions since early October, with Wedbush being the only one to do so in 2025 [9]