Earnings Preview: Exxon Mobil (XOM) Q4 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil (XOM) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended December 2024, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Exxon’s quarterly earnings is $1.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 36.3$87.12 billion, which is a 3.3% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.77% higher, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for Exxon is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.38%, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [10][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Exxon was expected to post earnings of $1.91 per share but exceeded expectations with actual earnings of$1.92, resulting in a surprise of +0.52%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [12][13]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, other factors may influence stock movement, and Exxon does not currently appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings surprise [14][16].