ExxonMobil stock's potential cash flow and dividend growth make it a buy.The S&P 500 may have logged its worst quarter since 2022 in the first three months of 2025 with its 4.6% drop, but shares of ExxonMobil (XOM 0.24%) defied the odds and returned 10.6% in Q1 this year, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence.ExxonMobil delivered solid numbers for 2024, generated billions of dollars in cash flows, increased its dividend for the 42nd consecutive year, and laid out plans to grow its ear ...

President Donald Trump’s recently imposed tariff has rattled the equity market. The question in everybody’s mind is whether the tariffs will be in place for an extended period. If the tariffs stick around for a while, U.S. spending across all businesses will probably take a hit in the face of increased prices. Eventually, there will be a contraction in the American economy. If there is a slowdown, then energy demand will go down, which could weigh heavily on the business performance of most energy companies ...

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil anticipates a $900 million increase in quarterly profit due to higher oil and natural gas prices and improved refining margins, but faces challenges in Q2 as crude prices have dropped significantly [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company expects first-quarter earnings to be approximately $900 million higher than the previous quarter's profit of $7.4 billion, and about $100 million higher than the same quarter last year, which reported $8.2 billion [3]. - Brent crude averaged just under $75 per barrel, a 1.3% increase from Q4, while natural gas prices surged by 30% due to increased demand from a cold winter in the U.S. [4]. Market Conditions - Early Q2 has seen a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude dropping over 10% to around $65 per barrel due to tariff concerns, and natural gas prices in the U.S. falling more than 5% [5][6]. - If current price levels persist or decline further, it could significantly impact Exxon's results in upcoming quarters, particularly affecting refining margins [6]. Long-term Strategy - Exxon is focused on enhancing its long-term earnings capacity by investing in its most efficient resources and reducing structural costs [7][11]. - The company plans to invest approximately $140 billion by 2030 in its best assets and aims for an additional $7 billion in cost savings, potentially delivering an extra $20 billion in annual earnings and $30 billion in incremental cash flow by 2030 [9][10]. Historical Performance - In the previous year, Exxon achieved $33.7 billion in earnings and $55 billion in cash flow from operations, marking its third-best year in a decade despite lower average refining and chemical margins [8]. - The company's strong performance was attributed to growth in high-margin assets and effective cost-saving measures [8]. Resilience to Volatility - While short-term earnings may be affected by fluctuating oil prices, Exxon's investments in low-cost assets and cost-cutting strategies are expected to mitigate the impact of price volatility in the long run [11].

Group 1 - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) anticipates that higher commodity prices for oil and natural gas will positively impact its first-quarter 2025 earnings, with a forecasted increase of $900 million compared to the previous quarter [1][3] - Brent crude prices averaged $74.98 per barrel in the first quarter, reflecting a 1.3% increase quarter over quarter, but a 9% decrease year over year [2] - Natural gas prices in the U.S. were approximately 30% higher in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, which is expected to contribute positively to ExxonMobil's earnings [2][5] Group 2 - ExxonMobil is projected to report an adjusted profit of $1.70 per share in the first quarter of 2025, with earnings release scheduled for May 2, 2025 [4] - The company derives a significant portion of its income from oil and gas production, and its earnings are highly influenced by commodity pricing [5] - Stronger oil refining margins are expected to contribute an additional $300-$700 million to earnings relative to the previous quarter [3] Group 3 - ExxonMobil currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with better-ranked stocks in the energy sector including Archrock Inc. (AROC), Nine Energy Service (NINE), and Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) [6] - Archrock focuses on midstream natural gas compression and generates stable fee-based revenues [7] - Nine Energy Service provides onshore completion and production services across key U.S. basins, positioning the company for long-term growth due to sustained demand for oil and gas [8] - Kinder Morgan operates a resilient midstream business model driven by take-or-pay contracts, ensuring consistent earnings and reliable capital returns [9]

Core Viewpoint - Investors' interest in Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has decreased despite a significant trading volume spike on March 31, with shares trading at 21,652,300, followed by a drop to 12,587,400 in the last session [1] Group 1: Production and Operations - ExxonMobil has strengthened its position in the Permian Basin by acquiring Pioneer Natural Resources, which is expected to boost its 2024 production by 570 thousand oil equivalent barrels per day [3] - The company aims to double its production in the Permian to approximately 2.3 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030 [3] - Operations in the Stabroek Block in Guyana are also contributing significantly to production, with plans to have eight FPSO units operational by 2030 [4] Group 2: Financial Strength and Business Model - ExxonMobil's integrated business model allows it to navigate uncertain market conditions, as it is involved in exploration, production, refining, and chemical businesses [5] - The company's debt-to-capitalization ratio stands at 13.36%, significantly lower than the industry average of 27.8% [6] - This strong balance sheet positions ExxonMobil favorably compared to competitors like BP, which has a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 43.2% [6] Group 3: Dividend and Income Reliability - ExxonMobil has increased its dividend payout for 42 consecutive years, establishing itself as a reliable income source for long-term investors [8] - The company’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders reflects strong operational stability across its upstream and downstream activities [8] Group 4: Market Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, XOM's stock has risen 12.5%, underperforming the industry composite's 13.3% improvement, while Chevron's stock increased by 16.9% [9] - XOM is considered relatively overvalued, trading at a 7.48x trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA, compared to the industry average of 4.72x [14] - Given the current overvaluation and waning investor interest, it may be prudent to wait for a more favorable entry point [15]

Financial Results - Exxon Mobil Corporation is set to release its first-quarter financial results on April 3, with expected earnings of $1.70 per share, a decrease from $2.06 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $86.09 billion, up from $83.08 billion a year earlier [1] Management Changes - Karen T. McKee, president of ExxonMobil Product Solutions Company, will retire effective May 1, with Matt Crocker named as her successor [2] - Exxon Mobil shares fell by 0.3% to close at $118.67 on the day of the announcement [2] Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott maintained an Overweight rating, lowering the price target from $141 to $138 [6] - Wells Fargo analyst Roger Read also maintained an Overweight rating, reducing the price target from $136 to $135 [6] - Truist Securities analyst Neal Dingmann maintained a Hold rating, raising the price target from $117 to $119 [6] - Piper Sandler analyst Ryan Todd maintained an Overweight rating, cutting the price target from $138 to $127 [6] - TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman maintained a Buy rating, increasing the price target from $127 to $132 [6]

Financial Results - Exxon Mobil Corporation is set to release its first-quarter financial results on April 3, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.70 per share, a decrease from $2.06 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $86.09 billion, up from $83.08 billion a year earlier [1] Management Changes - Karen T. McKee, president of ExxonMobil Product Solutions Company, will retire effective May 1, with Matt Crocker named as her successor [2] Dividend Information - Exxon Mobil currently offers an annual dividend yield of 3.34%, translating to a quarterly dividend of 99 cents per share, or $3.96 annually [3] - To achieve a monthly dividend income of $500, an investor would need to own approximately 1,515 shares, equating to a total investment of about $179,785 [4] - For a more conservative monthly income goal of $100, an investor would need 303 shares, or an investment of around $35,957 [4] Dividend Yield Dynamics - The dividend yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividend payment by the current stock price, which can fluctuate based on stock price changes [5] - For instance, if the stock price rises, the dividend yield decreases, and vice versa [5] - Changes in the dividend payment itself can also affect the yield; an increase in dividends raises the yield if the stock price remains constant [6] Stock Performance - Shares of Exxon Mobil fell by 0.3% to close at $118.67 on Wednesday [6]

Core Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, highlighting a trend towards diversification in investment portfolios [1] - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 indicates a growing interest in financial products beyond traditional savings [1] - The entry into the US market has been facilitated by platforms like Seeking Alpha, which provide valuable analyses for comparison with local markets [1] Investment Focus - The company has diversified investments across various sectors including banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hotels, reflecting a strategic approach to portfolio management [1] - There is a notable shift from solely investing in blue-chip companies to a broader range of industries and market capitalizations, indicating a more dynamic investment strategy [1] - The company holds stocks for both retirement and trading profits, showcasing a dual strategy in investment objectives [1] Market Trends - The logistics and shipping industries are gaining traction in the US market, paralleling trends observed in the ASEAN region [1] - The increasing engagement in stock markets, particularly in the Philippines and the US, suggests a growing confidence among investors in these regions [1] - The use of comparative analyses between different markets is becoming a common practice among investors, enhancing decision-making processes [1]

Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of XOM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor, and this article is not meant to be a recommendation for the purchase or sale of stock. Investors a ...

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil is facing potential challenges due to global economic uncertainty despite having achieved record production levels and strong profits in 2024 [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - ExxonMobil's earnings per share decreased from $8.89 in 2023 to $7.84 in 2024, yet it remains one of the best years in a decade [4]. - Analysts predict a further decline in earnings to $7.50 per share in 2025 due to economic headwinds [5]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a debt-to-capital ratio of 12.5% and an AA- credit rating [7]. Group 2: Dividend and Shareholder Value - ExxonMobil has consistently raised its dividends for 42 consecutive years, demonstrating resilience through various economic cycles [6]. - The current dividend yield stands at 3.3%, which is relatively high among S&P 500 stocks, indicating a potential buying opportunity for dividend investors [12]. - The company plans to spend $20 billion annually on share repurchases through 2026 to counteract share dilution from its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources [8]. Group 3: Growth Strategy - ExxonMobil aims to increase its oil and gas production from 4.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024 to 5.4 million barrels per day by 2030 [9]. - The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources enhances its presence in the Permian Basin, which is crucial for its growth strategy [9]. - Management targets an annualized earnings growth rate of 10% through 2030, focusing on reducing upstream costs and breakeven prices [10].