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Freeport-McMoRan's Copper Sales Fall Sparks Mixed Analyst Reactions, Long-Term Upside Remains In Play
FCXFreeport-McMoRan(FCX) Benzinga·2025-01-24 18:41

Core Insights - Several analysts have revised their price forecasts and ratings for Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. following the fourth-quarter FY24 results, which showed revenue of 5.72billion,belowtheconsensusof5.72 billion, below the consensus of 5.99 billion, while adjusted EPS was 0.31,exceedingtheconsensusof0.31, exceeding the consensus of 0.22 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The quarterly adjusted EBITDA was reported at 2.11billion,meetingexpectationsduetostrongrealizedpricingandcostefficiencies,despiteweakercopperandmolybdenumsalesandhigherdeliverycosts[2]−Managementanticipatesfirst−quartersalestobeimpactedduetopausedshipmentsandmaintenance,leadingtoaquarter−over−quarterdeclineincopperandgoldsalesof−142.11 billion, meeting expectations due to strong realized pricing and cost efficiencies, despite weaker copper and molybdenum sales and higher delivery costs [2] - Management anticipates first-quarter sales to be impacted due to paused shipments and maintenance, leading to a quarter-over-quarter decline in copper and gold sales of -14% and -36% respectively [3] - Earnings are projected to improve in the second quarter as deferred sales from Indonesia begin to recover [4] Group 2: Future Guidance - For 2025, Freeport-McMoRan expects sales volumes of 4.0 billion pounds of copper, 1.6 million ounces of gold, and 88 million pounds of molybdenum [1] - The company has cut its FY25 copper guidance, indicating that some lost sales may not be recouped [3] - If copper qualifies for 45X tax credits, it could lead to potential cost savings of 500 million per year, which may positively impact consensus estimates [4] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Forecasts - JP Morgan analyst Bill Peterson maintained a price forecast of 48withaNeutralrating,whileRaymondJamesanalystBrianMacArthuradjustedthepriceforecastfrom48 with a Neutral rating, while Raymond James analyst Brian MacArthur adjusted the price forecast from 53 to 49withanOutperformrating[2][4]−BMOCapitalMarketsreduceditspriceforecastfrom49 with an Outperform rating [2][4] - BMO Capital Markets reduced its price forecast from 54 to 50whilekeepinganOutperformrating,whereasJefferiesdowngradedthecompanyfromBuytoHoldandloweredthepriceforecastfrom50 while keeping an Outperform rating, whereas Jefferies downgraded the company from Buy to Hold and lowered the price forecast from 48 to 40[5]Group4:MarketPerformance−FCXsharesweredown1.7940 [5] Group 4: Market Performance - FCX shares were down 1.79% at 37.81 during the last check on Friday [6]