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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) shares have lost 25.1% in the past three months. The downside is partly due to the slump in copper prices amid uncertainties over U.S. tariffs and concerns over FCX’s high production costs. Freeport has underperformed the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s decline of 24.2% while outperforming the S&P 500’s fall of 13.6% in the past three months. Its peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) , BHP Group Limited (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group (RIO) , have lost 20.1%, 17.1% and 11.1%, ...

GXO Logistics - GXO Logistics combines e-commerce, automation, AI, and analytics to offer outsourcing solutions for supply chain logistics, particularly in e-commerce warehousing [2] - The stock has been heavily sold off due to some customers rationing operations, but GXO has managed to replace lost revenue, although it takes time to reach profitability levels of mature contracts [3] - Analysts forecast GXO's earnings per share (EPS) to decline from $2.80 in 2024 to $2.48 in 2025, before rising to $2.99 in 2026, indicating a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5 times earnings, which is considered cheap given its long-term growth prospects [4] - The ongoing growth of e-commerce and the increasing complexity of productivity-enhancing technology will drive demand for e-commerce warehousing and logistics outsourcing [10] Tesla - Tesla holds a dominant position in the EV market despite high interest rates affecting auto sales, with a 44% share of the U.S. EV market [5][7] - The company benefits from its scale and first-mover advantage, allowing it to lower its cost per car to below $35,000, while maintaining superior profit margins compared to competitors [6] - Tesla plans to launch its robotaxi offering, the Tesla Cybercab, with volume production starting in 2026, which could significantly enhance its market value [8] - The 36% decline in Tesla's share price this year presents a potential buying opportunity, despite the associated risks [9] Freeport-McMoRan - Freeport-McMoRan's stock is trading 35% below its all-time high, despite the Chicago Metal Exchange price of copper being at an all-time high, indicating a disconnect likely due to skepticism about the sustainability of current prices [11] - The company is well-positioned to thrive in the current environment, with substantial existing mining operations in the U.S. and expansion projects that could increase copper production [12] - The ongoing demand for copper as a key metal in the electrification megatrend makes Freeport-McMoRan a strong long-term investment [13]

Following the receipt of regulatory approvals on March 17, 2025, PTFI was able to resume concentrate export shipments from Indonesia, which had been temporarily restricted since December 2024. In addition, PTFI continues to ramp up production at its newly commissioned precious metals refinery (PMR). FCX expects its consolidated copper sales for the first quarter to align with its January 2025 forecast of 850 million pounds, while its gold sales are anticipated to be about 100,000 ounces lower than the Janua ...

The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside- audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 1.11% lower. Freeport-McMoRan is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Looking at its valuation, Freeport-McMoRan is holding a Forward P/E ratio of 23.32. This denotes a premium relative to the industry's average Forward P/E ...

Financial Performance - Fourth-quarter 2024 net income attributable to common stock totaled $274 million, $0.19 per share, and adjusted net income attributable to common stock totaled $450 million, $0.31 per share [2] - Net income attributable to common stockholders for 2024 was $1,889 million, compared to $1,848 million in 2023 [93] - Net income for 2024 was $4.399 billion, up from $3.751 billion in 2023, reflecting improved operational performance [98] - Adjusted net income attributable to common stock for 2024 was $2.146 billion, slightly down from $2.221 billion in 2023 [103] - FCX's consolidated income tax provision for 2024 shows an effective tax rate of 42% with a provision of $520 million, compared to 42% and $724 million in 2023 [108] - FCX estimates a consolidated effective tax rate of 40% for 2025, with tax impacts at 39% for Peru, 36% for Indonesia, and 0% for the U.S. [114] - Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests totaled $447 million in Q4 2024, representing 36% of FCX's consolidated income before taxes [129] - FCX estimates net income attributable to noncontrolling interests to approximate $2.3 billion for 2025, representing 35% of consolidated income before taxes [132] - Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests for Q4 2023 was $619 million, representing 36% of FCX's consolidated income before taxes [129] Production and Sales - Consolidated production in fourth-quarter 2024 totaled 1.04 billion pounds of copper, 432 thousand ounces of gold, and 22 million pounds of molybdenum [2] - Consolidated sales in fourth-quarter 2024 totaled 1.0 billion pounds of copper, 350 thousand ounces of gold, and 18 million pounds of molybdenum [2] - Consolidated sales for 2025 are expected to approximate 4.0 billion pounds of copper, 1.6 million ounces of gold, and 88 million pounds of molybdenum [2] - Incremental copper production from technology and leaching initiatives totaled 50 million pounds in fourth-quarter 2024 and 214 million pounds for the year 2024 [13] - FCX's North America copper sales for 2024 were 1.26 billion pounds, with an estimated 1.4 billion pounds for 2025 [21] - FCX's South America copper sales for 2024 were 1.2 billion pounds, with an expected 1.1 billion pounds for 2025 [30] - PT-FI's Kucing Liar deposit is expected to produce over 7 billion pounds of copper and 6 million ounces of gold between 2029 and 2041, with capital investments estimated at $4 billion over the next 7-8 years [39] - PT-FI's consolidated copper sales volumes in Q4 2024 were 376 million pounds, down from 511 million pounds in Q4 2023, primarily due to lower ore grades and shipment timing [45] - PT-FI's consolidated gold sales volumes in Q4 2024 were 343 thousand ounces, down from 544 thousand ounces in Q4 2023 [45] - PT-FI's projected sales volumes for 2025 are 1.55 billion pounds of copper and 1.6 million ounces of gold, reflecting reduced operating rates due to planned maintenance projects [46] - Copper production in Q4 2024 was 1,041 million recoverable pounds, with sales of 992 million pounds, compared to 1,095 million pounds produced and 1,116 million pounds sold in Q4 2023 [84] - Gold production in Q4 2024 was 432 thousand recoverable ounces, with sales of 350 thousand ounces, compared to 573 thousand ounces produced and 549 thousand ounces sold in Q4 2023 [84] - Molybdenum production in Q4 2024 was 22 million recoverable pounds, with sales of 18 million pounds, compared to 20 million pounds produced and 22 million pounds sold in Q4 2023 [84] - Total copper production for 2024 was 4,214 million recoverable pounds, slightly up from 4,212 million pounds in 2023 [87] - Gold production in 2024 was 1,880 thousand recoverable ounces, down from 1,993 thousand ounces in 2023 [87] - FCX's mined copper sales in 2024 were 45% in concentrate, 34% as cathode, and 21% as rod, with an average realized copper price of $4.15 per pound in Q4 2024 [118] - At December 31, 2024, FCX had provisionally priced copper sales totaling 133 million pounds at an average price of $3.96 per pound [125] - FCX's net deferred profits on inventories at Atlantic Copper totaled $181 million at December 31, 2024, to be recognized in future periods [127] - Silver sales in South America operations totaled 3.6 million ounces in 2024 at an average realized price of $29.35 per ounce [174] - Silver sales in South America operations totaled 4.1 million ounces in 2023 at an average realized price of $23.57 per ounce [177] - Silver sales in Q4 2024 were 1.4 million ounces at an average realized price of $29.85 per ounce [180] - Silver sales in Q4 2023 were 2.0 million ounces at an average realized price of $23.58 per ounce [183] - Silver sales in 2024 were 6.9 million ounces at an average realized price of $28.52 per ounce [186] - Silver sales in 2023 were 6.0 million ounces at an average realized price of $23.37 per ounce [190] - Molybdenum sales volume remained stable at 30 million recoverable pounds for both 2024 and 2023 [198] Costs and Expenses - Consolidated unit net cash costs for FCX's copper mines are expected to average $1.60 per pound of copper for the year 2025 [12] - Average unit net cash costs for North America copper mines were $3.04 per pound in Q4 2024, expected to approximate $3.00 per pound for 2025 [22][23] - Average unit net cash costs for South America operations were $2.36 per pound in Q4 2024, expected to approximate $2.50 per pound for 2025 [31][32] - PT-FI's unit net cash credits in Q4 2024 were $0.08 per pound of copper, favorable compared to less than $0.01 per pound in Q4 2023, primarily due to higher gold credits [47] - Production and delivery costs for 2024 were $15,554 million, up from $13,627 million in 2023 [93] - PT-FI's new smelter and precious metals refinery incurred $133 million in operational readiness and startup costs in 2024 [94] - Consolidated interest costs for 2024 were $710 million, down from $782 million in 2023 [94] - Total charges for feasibility and optimization studies were $62 million ($0.05 per pound of copper) and $60 million ($0.05 per pound of copper) for metals inventory adjustments [161] - Total charges for feasibility and optimization studies were $107 million ($0.08 per pound of copper) [166] - Nonrecurring charges of $97 million ($0.08 per pound of copper) were incurred in 2024 for labor-related charges at Cerro Verde [175] - Feasibility and optimization studies in 2024 resulted in charges of $57 million ($0.05 per pound of copper) [175] - Noncash and other costs for Indonesia operations in 2024 included $144 million for ARO adjustment and $133 million for operational readiness and startup costs [187] - Noncash and other costs for Indonesia operations in 2023 included $112 million in credits to correct historical PT-FI ARO model inputs and $55 million for an administrative fine [191] - Total costs for molybdenum mines increased to $630 million in 2024 from $530 million in 2023 [198] - Net cash costs for molybdenum mines rose to $535 million in 2024 from $448 million in 2023 [198] - DD&A expenses for molybdenum mines increased to $73 million in 2024 from $66 million in 2023 [198] - Noncash and other costs, net for molybdenum mines increased to $22 million in 2024 from $16 million in 2023 [198] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Operating cash flows totaled $1.4 billion in fourth-quarter 2024 and $7.2 billion for the year 2024 [2] - Capital expenditures in fourth-quarter 2024 totaled $1.2 billion, including $0.6 billion for major mining projects and $0.2 billion for PT-FI's new smelter and precious metals refinery [2] - FCX generated operating cash flows of $1.4 billion in Q4 2024 and $7.2 billion for the full year 2024 [63] - FCX's consolidated operating cash flows for 2025 are estimated to approximate $6.2 billion, based on current sales volume and cost estimates [64] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to approximate $5.0 billion, including $2.8 billion for major mining projects and $0.6 billion for PT-FI's new downstream processing facilities [66] - FCX had $3.9 billion in consolidated cash and cash equivalents at December 31, 2024, with $3.0 billion of availability under its revolving credit facility [62] - FCX's net debt at December 31, 2024, excluding $3.2 billion of debt for PT-FI's new downstream processing facilities, totaled $1.06 billion [71] - FCX declared a total cash dividend of $0.15 per share, consisting of a $0.075 quarterly base dividend and a $0.075 variable performance-based dividend, payable on February 3, 2025 [72] - FCX has 1.4 billion shares outstanding and $3.1 billion available under its share repurchase program as of January 22, 2025 [73] - Cash flow from operating activities rose to $7.160 billion in 2024, compared to $5.279 billion in 2023, indicating stronger cash generation [98] - Capital expenditures for Indonesia operations decreased to $2.908 billion in 2024 from $3.411 billion in 2023, reflecting reduced investment [98] - Net cash used in financing activities was $3.284 billion in 2024, up from $2.650 billion in 2023, driven by higher debt repayments and dividends [98] - FCX's net debt as of December 31, 2024, was $4.289 billion, excluding $3.233 billion for PT-FI's new downstream processing facilities [116] Prices and Realized Values - Average realized prices in fourth-quarter 2024 were $4.15 per pound for copper, $2,628 per ounce for gold, and $22.23 per pound for molybdenum [2] - The average realized price for copper in Q4 2024 was $4.15 per pound, up from $3.81 per pound in Q4 2023 [84] - The average realized price for gold in Q4 2024 was $2,628 per ounce, up from $2,034 per ounce in Q4 2023 [84] - The average realized price for molybdenum in Q4 2024 was $22.23 per pound, up from $20.66 per pound in Q4 2023 [84] - Average realized copper price per pound increased to $4.21 in 2024 from $3.85 in 2023 [87] - Gross profit per pound of molybdenum decreased to $2.04 in Q4 2024 from $2.48 in Q4 2023 [194] - Gross loss per pound of molybdenum was $0.39 in 2024, compared to a gross profit of $5.79 per pound in 2023 [198] Reserves and Assets - FCX's preliminary estimated consolidated recoverable proven and probable mineral reserves at December 31, 2024, include 97.0 billion pounds of copper, 23.0 million ounces of gold, and 3.16 billion pounds of molybdenum [54] - Total assets increased to $54.848 billion in 2024 from $52.506 billion in 2023, driven by growth in property, plant, and equipment [96] - Long-term debt increased to $8.907 billion in 2024 from $8.656 billion in 2023, indicating higher borrowing [96] - Restricted cash and cash equivalents decreased to $1.0 billion in 2024 from $1.3 billion in 2023, due to regulatory changes in Indonesia [96][99] - Total assets at December 31, 2024, were $54.848 billion, with Indonesia operations accounting for $27.309 billion [140] Segment Performance - North America Copper Mines generated $6,060 million in total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, with $180 million from unaffiliated customers and $5,880 million from intersegment sales [143] - South America Operations reported total revenues of $4,533 million for 2024, including $3,618 million from Cerro Verde and $915 million from other operations [143] - Indonesia Operations contributed $9,774 million in revenues for 2024, with $544 million from intersegment sales [143] - FCX's total operating income for 2024 was $6,864 million, with $5,622 million from Indonesia Operations and $1,471 million from South America Operations [143] - Capital expenditures for 2024 totaled $4,808 million, with $2,908 million allocated to Indonesia Operations and $1,033 million to North America Copper Mines [143] - North America Copper Mines revenues for Q4 2024 were $1.606 billion, with copper contributing $1.373 billion and molybdenum contributing $175 million [151] - Gross profit for North America Copper Mines in Q4 2024 was $183 million, with copper sales at 320 million recoverable pounds and molybdenum sales at 8 million recoverable pounds [151] - Unit net cash costs for copper in Q4 2024 were $3.04 per pound, while molybdenum unit net cash costs were $15.40 per pound [151] - North America Copper Mines revenues for Q4 2023 were $1.385 billion, with copper contributing $1.209 billion and molybdenum contributing $134 million [154] - Gross profit for North America Copper Mines in Q4 2023 was $128 million, with copper sales at 319 million recoverable pounds and molybdenum sales at 7 million recoverable pounds [154] - Unit net cash costs for copper in Q4 2023 were $2.86 per pound, while molybdenum unit net cash costs were $17.50 per pound [154] - North America Copper Mines revenues for the full year 2024 were $6.211 billion, with copper contributing $5.417 billion and molybdenum contributing $608 million [159] - Gross profit for North America Copper Mines in 2024 was $816 million, with copper sales at 1.263 billion recoverable pounds and molybdenum sales at 30 million recoverable pounds [159] - Unit net cash costs for copper in 2024 were $3.11 per pound, while molybdenum unit net cash costs were $16.20 per pound [159] - South America Operations revenues excluding adjustments were $1.312 billion for the three months ended December 31, 2024, with copper contributing $1.208 billion [167] - South America Operations gross profit was $314 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024, with copper accounting for $283 million [167] - South America Operations gross profit per pound of copper was $1.05 using the by-product method and $0.95 using the co-product method for the three months ended December 31, 2024 [167] - South America Operations revenues excluding adjustments were $1.175 billion for the three months ended December 31, 2023, with copper contributing $1.096 billion [170] - South America Operations gross profit was $181 million for the three months ended December 31, 2023, with copper accounting for $176 million [170] - South America Operations gross profit per pound of copper was $0.63 using the by-product method and $0.62 using the co-product method for the three months ended December 31, 2023 [170] - South America operations reported revenues of $5,171 million in 2024, with production and delivery costs of $3,230 million and DD&A of $446 million [174] - Other mining operations generated revenues of $26,406 million in 2024, with production and delivery costs of $18,012 million and DD&A of $1,737 million [174] - South America operations achieved gross profit of $1,492 million in 2024, with copper sales of 1,177 million recoverable pounds and gross profit per pound of $1.27 [174] - South America operations reported revenues of $4,941 million in 2023, with production and delivery costs of $3,239 million and DD&A of $459 million [177] - Other mining operations generated revenues of $24,166 million in 2023, with production and delivery costs of $16,406 million and DD&A of $1,545 million [177] - South America operations achieved gross profit of $1,241 million in 2023, with copper sales of 1,200 million recoverable pounds and gross profit per pound of $1.04 [177] - Indonesia operations product revenues for Q4 2024 were $2.492 billion, with copper contributing $1.543 billion and gold contributing $901 million [180] - Gross profit for Indonesia operations in Q4 2024 was $1.056 billion, with copper accounting for $638 million and gold for $396 million [180] - Copper sales in Q4 2024 were 376 million recoverable pounds, generating a gross profit of $2.81 per pound [180] - Gold sales in Q4 2024 were 343 thousand recoverable ounces, generating a gross profit of $1,153 per ounce [180] - Indonesia operations product revenues for Q4 2023 were $3.106 billion, with copper contributing $1.947 billion and gold contributing $1.108 billion [183] - Gross profit for Indonesia operations in Q4 2023 was $1.695 billion, with copper accounting for $1.054 billion and gold for $614 million [183] -

He focuses on identifying growth investing opportunities that present the most attractive risk/reward upside potential. His approach combines sharp price action analysis with fundamentals investing. JR Research is an opportunistic investor. He was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst. He was also recognized by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. He identifies attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price actio ...

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan's stock has declined 37% from its all-time high despite copper prices nearing an all-time high, indicating a potential investment opportunity amid market downturns [1] Group 1: Reasons for Stock Decline - The stock's performance is disconnected from copper prices due to two main factors that appear unjustified [2] - A fire at a newly opened smelter in Indonesia has led to operational challenges, including a potential export ban on copper concentrate starting January 1, 2025, requiring permits for exports [3] - The Indonesian government has issued a six-month permit for Freeport to export concentrates while repairs are made to the smelter [4] - Concerns over the recent rise in U.S. copper prices being driven by speculative buying ahead of potential tariffs may have contributed to the stock's decline [5] Group 2: Company Positioning - Freeport-McMoRan is strategically positioned to benefit from U.S. production initiatives and tariff conflicts, with plans for brownfield expansions in Arizona expected to add 650 million pounds of copper annually [6][7] - The company's U.S.-focused leaching initiative aims to recover 800 million pounds of copper annually by 2030, contributing to a projected total production of 4 billion pounds in 2025 [8] Group 3: Long-term Demand for Copper - Copper is essential for various modern economic trends, including electric vehicles, renewable energy, and the Internet of Things, all of which are part of the "electrification of everything" megatrend [9][10] - While individual demand drivers may experience temporary weaknesses, the overall demand for copper is expected to remain strong [11] Group 4: Investment Opportunity - The combination of rising copper prices, favorable volume growth outlook, and long-term demand trends makes Freeport-McMoRan an attractive stock to consider for investment [12] - The current disconnect between the falling stock price and rising copper prices presents a potential opportunity for investors [13]

Core Viewpoint - The price of copper is nearing an all-time high, presenting a strong investment opportunity in Freeport-McMoRan, a major copper and gold miner, particularly due to its U.S. production and potential benefits from market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) copper price is up 27% year to date, currently around $5.10 per pound, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) price is up almost 14% year to date [2]. - Concerns over potential tariffs on imported copper by the Trump administration have led to increased buying in the U.S. market [3][4]. Group 2: Freeport-McMoRan's Competitive Position - Freeport-McMoRan produces copper primarily in the U.S., which shields it from retaliatory tariffs and allows it to benefit from rising CME prices [5]. - The company’s production volumes for 2024 are projected at 1.246 billion pounds in North America, 1.168 billion pounds in South America, and 1.8 billion pounds in Indonesia [6]. - The unit net cash cost of production is $3.04 per pound in the U.S., compared to $2.36 per pound in South America and a net cash credit of $0.08 per pound in Indonesia, indicating higher leverage to U.S. price increases [6][7]. Group 3: Production Expansion Potential - Freeport-McMoRan has plans to increase U.S. copper production, with a low-cost leaching initiative expected to produce 300 million to 400 million pounds by 2026, up from 214 million pounds in 2024, aiming for 800 million pounds by 2030 [10]. - The company is exploring brownfield expansions in Lone Star, Arizona, which could double current production, and is considering a project in Bagdad, Arizona, that could add 200 million to 250 million pounds by 2029 [11]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - With copper prices at $5 per pound, Freeport-McMoRan is projected to generate $15 billion in EBITDA in 2026 and 2027, suggesting the company is undervalued with a current market cap of $58.1 billion [12].

Core Viewpoint - J.P. Morgan analyst Bill Peterson upgraded Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. to an Overweight rating, raising the price forecast to $52 from $48, driven by tariff-related factors and long-term supply constraints supporting premium pricing for U.S. operations [1] Group 1: Tariff and Pricing Impact - Since the announcement regarding the assessment of U.S. copper imports as a national security risk, COMEX copper has maintained an average premium of approximately 10% over LME prices [2] - The ongoing review is expected to conclude by November 22, which may lead to protective measures for U.S. copper imports [3] Group 2: Financial Contributions and Positioning - Freeport-McMoRan's U.S. operations contribute around 10% of its operating profit for FY24 and 20% of post-tax earnings due to net operating loss benefits [3] - The company is well-positioned compared to peers to capitalize on near-term upside opportunities, even if protective policies do not materialize [4] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The Commodities team projects widening supply deficits this year and into the next decade, reinforcing a favorable long-term outlook for copper pricing [5] - The expected resumption of concentrate exports and record gold prices are anticipated to boost by-product credits at the Grasberg mine [4]