Goldman Sachs Stays On The Sidelines On Exxon Mobil - Here's Why

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta has lowered the price forecast for Exxon Mobil Corporation from $125 to$123 ahead of the company's fourth-quarter results, maintaining a Neutral rating [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Estimates - Exxon Mobil anticipates a reduction in fourth-quarter upstream earnings by $(0.9) billion to$(0.5) billion due to changes in oil prices [2]. - The company projects that variations in industry margins will impact energy products earnings by $(0.7) billion to$(0.3) billion, specialty products earnings by $(0.1) billion to$0.1 billion, and chemical products earnings by $(0.5) billion to$(0.3) billion [3]. - Revised EPS estimates for 2024-2026 are $7.63 (from$7.91), $8.17 (from$8.35), and $9.97 (from$9.71), reflecting adjustments in commodity prices and refining margins [4]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - The company benefits from strong execution, shareholder returns (~8% capital returns yield in 2025/2026), and premium Upstream assets (Permian, Guyana, LNG), but its relative valuation keeps the analyst on the sidelines [2]. - Investors can gain exposure to Exxon Mobil through Vanguard Energy ETF VDE and SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy Select Sector XLE [4]. Group 3: Market Reaction - XOM shares are down 1.28% at $108.74 as of the last check [4].