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Prediction: This Company Will Have a Trillion-Dollar Market Cap by 2040
ISRGIntuitive(ISRG) The Motley Fool·2025-01-26 12:57

Market Cap and Growth Potential - Companies with market caps below 1trillionbutwithplausiblechancesofreachingthatmilestonecoulddeliverexcellentreturnstolongterminvestors[1]IntuitiveSurgicalcurrentlyhasamarketcapof1 trillion but with plausible chances of reaching that milestone could deliver excellent returns to long-term investors [1] - Intuitive Surgical currently has a market cap of 215 billion and would need a compound annual growth rate of 10 8% to reach $1 trillion by 2040 [2] Industry Leadership and Technology - Robotic-assisted surgeries offer benefits such as less bleeding, less scarring, faster recoveries, and shorter hospital stays compared to traditional open surgeries [3] - Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci system is the market leader in robotic-assisted surgical equipment with a 57% market share and an installed base of 9,539 systems as of Q3 2024, a 15% year-over-year increase [4] Growth Opportunities - Less than 5% of eligible surgeries were performed robotically as of early 2023, but this percentage could reasonably rise to 20%, representing a quadrupling of the business even if the total number of surgeries remains static [6] - The aging global population further supports long-term growth potential for robotic-assisted surgeries [6] Competitive Advantages - Intuitive Surgical has a first-mover advantage, having already developed and gained regulatory clearance for its devices, unlike competitors such as Johnson & Johnson and Medtronic [8] - High switching costs for hospitals due to significant investments in da Vinci systems and staff training create a strong moat for the company [9] - The company is an innovator, making strides in artificial intelligence and continuously improving its da Vinci system, which helps maintain its leadership position [10] Historical Performance and Future Outlook - Intuitive Surgical's compound annual growth rate over the past 25 years has been more than double what it needs to achieve to become a trillion-dollar stock by 2040 [12] - The company possesses qualities such as a strong moat, strong growth avenues, and industry leadership, making it an excellent long-term investment in the healthcare sector [12]