2025年08月24日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 回调后再度发动，中小盘明显占优 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 弱于大市·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：回调后再度发动，中小盘明显占优 资金流向：整体流入接近停滞，行业间分化较大 本周，标普500成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为+1.7（亿美元，下同），上周为+75.8，近4周为-75.0，近13周为+209.2。 18个行业资金流入，6个行业资金流出。资金流入的行业有：汽车与汽车零部件（+11.0）、综合金融（+4.6）、银行（+3.8）、资本品（+3.3）、医疗保健设备 与服务（+3.3）；资金流出的行业主要有：软件与服务（-29.9）、半导体产品与设备（-7.7）、食品与主要用品零售（-4.7）、技术硬件与设备（-2.3）、媒 体与娱乐（-1.1）。 盈 ...

Company Performance - Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) closed at $476.16, with a +1.34% change from the previous day, lagging behind the S&P 500's 1.52% gain [1] - Over the previous month, ISRG shares experienced a loss of 3.83%, underperforming the Medical sector's gain of 4.77% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.1% [1] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show an EPS of $2, reflecting an 8.7% increase from the prior-year quarter, with revenue anticipated at $2.41 billion, indicating an 18.22% increase year-over-year [2] - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $8.17 per share and revenue of $9.78 billion, representing changes of +11.31% and +17.1% compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Valuation - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for ISRG suggest a changing business landscape, with positive revisions indicating confidence in performance and profit potential [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which considers estimate changes, currently ranks ISRG at 3 (Hold), with a recent upward shift of 3.59% in the EPS estimate [6] - ISRG has a Forward P/E ratio of 57.51, significantly higher than the industry average of 22.61, and a PEG ratio of 3.94 compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 2.26 [7] Industry Context - The Medical - Instruments industry, part of the Medical sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 153, placing it within the bottom 39% of over 250 industries [8]

Core Insights - Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is expanding its Ion platform internationally, with initial sales in Australia and Korea, aiming to replicate its U.S. success [1][8] - The Ion platform has seen a 52% year-over-year increase in procedures, reaching nearly 35,000 in the latest quarter [1] - Challenges in Japan and China due to constrained hospital budgets and trade frictions may limit growth, making Australia and Korea strategic test markets [1][2] Market Strategy - The strategy involves leveraging the U.S. model of rapid adoption and strong clinical evidence to drive growth in Asia-Pacific [2] - Korea is identified as a promising market for the Ion platform, while Australia serves as a gateway to the broader region [2] Execution Risks - Potential execution risks include capital constraints in Asia, increased competition, and tariff uncertainties that could hinder the Ion platform's expansion [3][8] - Balancing resources between U.S. growth and international market development is crucial for Intuitive Surgical [3] Competitive Landscape - Johnson & Johnson's Monarch system has received FDA clearance and demonstrated high diagnostic yield and safety compared to non-robotic methods [5] - Medtronic's Hugo system has shown a 98.5% surgical success rate and is expanding its applications across various surgical specialties [6] Financial Performance - ISRG shares have declined by 7.8% year-to-date, slightly underperforming the industry average decline of 7.5% [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Intuitive Surgical is 54.56, above the industry average but lower than its five-year median of 72.16 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates an 11.3% rise in earnings for 2025 compared to the previous year [11]

Group 1: Intuitive Surgical - Intuitive Surgical is a leader in robotic-assisted surgery (RAS) devices, primarily driven by its da Vinci system, which allows for minimally invasive surgeries across various medical fields [4] - The company has faced challenges such as a decline in bariatric surgeries and tariffs, but its long-term prospects remain strong due to a resilient business model and consistent growth in revenue [5][9] - The addressable market for Intuitive Surgical is underpenetrated, with over half of its revenue coming from instruments and accessories tied to procedure volume, benefiting from an aging global population [7][8] - Intuitive Surgical has outperformed the market for 25 years, indicating potential for significant capital growth for younger investors [9] Group 2: Moderna - Moderna is considered a riskier investment compared to Intuitive Surgical but has substantial upside potential, particularly due to its successful COVID-19 vaccine and innovative mRNA platform [10] - The company has achieved several clinical and regulatory successes, including approvals for vaccines against RSV and ongoing trials for vaccines targeting influenza and cancer [11][13] - Despite a recent lag in stock performance due to declining sales from its coronavirus vaccine franchise, Moderna's pipeline remains promising, with potential candidates for various cancers and an early-stage HIV vaccine [12][14] - If Moderna successfully mainstreams mRNA vaccines over the next five years, it could lead to significant stock upside, making it a consideration for younger investors who can tolerate volatility [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Underperform" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs, with small-cap stocks showing strong performance [3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.9%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.8% [3] - 18 out of 24 sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences (+5.5%) and healthcare equipment and services (+4.2%) [3] Price Trends - The report highlights that small-cap value stocks (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed small-cap growth stocks, with a rise of 3.4% compared to 2.8% [3] - The sectors with the largest gains include pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (+5.5%), healthcare equipment and services (+4.2%), and durable goods and apparel (+3.6%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that declined include food and staples retailing (-2.4%) and commercial and professional services (-1.4%) [3] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flows for S&P 500 constituents showed a significant increase to +$7.58 billion this week, up from +$1.70 billion last week [4] - The healthcare equipment and services sector saw the highest inflow at +$2.76 billion, followed by media and entertainment (+$1.31 billion) and pharmaceuticals (+$1.09 billion) [4] - Notably, the software and services sector experienced an outflow of -$476 million [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.2% upward adjustment in the 12-month forward EPS expectations for S&P 500 constituents [5] - 22 sectors saw an increase in earnings expectations, with semiconductor products and equipment leading at +0.6% [5] - The energy sector was the only one to experience a downward revision, with a decrease of -0.3% [5] Global Asset Overview - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,450, reflecting a 0.9% increase for the week and a 16.1% increase year-to-date [11] - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, rose by 3.1% this week, indicating strong performance in this segment [11] Sector Observations - The healthcare sector recorded a price return of 5.0% this week, outperforming other sectors [16] - The materials sector also performed well, with a 1.8% increase, while the energy sector lagged with only a 0.5% increase [16] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector had the highest price return at 5.5% [16]

Company Performance - Intuitive Surgical's Ion platform experienced a 52% year-over-year increase in procedures, reaching approximately 35,000 in Q2 2025, indicating its growing significance in minimally invasive lung diagnostics and interventions [1][9] - The installed base of Ion systems grew to 905, although capital placements decreased to 54 from 74 in the prior-year period, highlighting challenges in scaling hardware sales despite improved utilization [2][9] - Average system utilization increased by 8% year-over-year, reflecting stronger engagement from existing customers [2] Market Expansion - The quarter marked Ion's first commercial procedures in Australia and Korea, expanding its global footprint [2] - The potential for Ion to replicate the success of Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci system could open a multi-billion-dollar opportunity in early lung cancer diagnosis and thoracic procedures [3] Challenges and Opportunities - The slowdown in system placements indicates a near-term bottleneck, with hospital capital budgets under pressure from macroeconomic and trade headwinds, which may affect expansion [4] - Despite these challenges, Ion is viewed as a promising growth vector for Intuitive Surgical, with strong procedural momentum and expanding international presence [5] Competitive Landscape - Stryker introduced its fourth-generation Mako SmartRobotics system, enhancing surgical planning and execution capabilities [6] - Globus Medical showcased its ExcelsiusFlex robotic navigation system, designed to improve surgical precision and accommodate diverse patient needs [7] Financial Overview - Intuitive Surgical's shares have declined by 8.3% year-to-date, compared to the industry's decline of 10.2% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 16.13, above the industry average but lower than its five-year median of 26.91 [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Intuitive Surgical's 2025 earnings suggests an 11.3% increase from the previous year [12]

Company Overview - Intuitive Surgical is an American biotechnology company with a market valuation of nearly $170 billion [2] Performance Analysis - The company has significantly underperformed the stock market since the last recommendation, indicating potential challenges in its stock performance [2] Investment Strategy - The Value Portfolio focuses on constructing retirement portfolios using a fact-based research strategy, which includes thorough analysis of 10Ks, analyst commentary, market reports, and investor presentations [2]

Key Takeaways ISRG Q2 top line beat estimates but shares fell 7% on tariff impact, cost inflation, and margin pressure.ISRG flagged CapEx risks, shifting procedure mix, and rising expenses as near-term challenges.ISRG sees growth from da Vinci 5 adoption, new approvals, and long-term telesurgery potential.Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) posted second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on July 22. It delivered a solid top-line beat and healthy procedure growth, but shares have lost more than 7% since the release. While o ...

Core Viewpoint - Investing in well-established companies like Alphabet and Intuitive Surgical can yield strong long-term returns despite short-term challenges [2][3]. Group 1: Alphabet - Alphabet is currently undervalued among trillion-dollar tech leaders, facing potential antitrust lawsuits in the U.S. regarding its Chrome browser [5]. - The company reported a 14% year-over-year revenue growth to $96.4 billion, with net earnings per share (EPS) of $2.31, up 22.2% compared to the previous year [6]. - Alphabet's cloud division, Google Cloud, has a revenue run rate exceeding $50 billion, indicating strong growth potential in cloud computing and AI [6][8]. - The diversification of Alphabet's business reduces reliance on advertising, which is crucial if the company loses Chrome [7]. - Alphabet has significant free cash flow of $5.3 billion and plans to invest $85 billion in capital expenditures to support growth opportunities [9]. - The company is well-positioned to outperform the market over the next decade, with an investment of $1,000 allowing the purchase of five shares [10]. Group 2: Intuitive Surgical - Intuitive Surgical leads the robotic-assisted surgery (RAS) market but has faced challenges this year due to tariffs impacting earnings [11]. - The company reported second-quarter revenue of $2.44 billion, a 21% increase year-over-year, driven by a 17% rise in procedures using the Da Vinci System [12]. - Adjusted EPS for Intuitive Surgical was $2.19, reflecting a 23% increase compared to the previous year [13]. - High switching costs and a lack of competition in the RAS field provide Intuitive Surgical with a strong market position [14]. - The aging population presents significant growth opportunities, as RAS procedures currently capture only 5% of eligible surgeries [15]. - Despite current stock performance, Intuitive Surgical has the potential for superior long-term returns, with $1,000 allowing the purchase of two shares [16].

Key Takeaways ISRG's Ion procedures grew 52% YoY to 35,000, with system utilization rising 8% amid slower new placements.ISRG is prioritizing workflow optimizations and cost efficiencies to accelerate Ion's path to profitability.Ion's utilization gains enhance recurring revenue streams as ISRG expands into new international markets.Intuitive Surgical’s (ISRG) Ion platform continues to build momentum, posting a robust 52% year-over-year improvement in procedures (to approximately 35,000) for second-quarter 2 ...