AbbVie Q4 Earnings Loom: Buy or Sell ABBV Stock Ahead of Results?

Core Viewpoint - AbbVie is expected to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings on January 31, with sales estimated at $14.92 billion and earnings at$2.09 per share, although earnings estimates for 2025 have slightly declined from $12.27 to$12.17 per share [1][7]. Financial Performance - AbbVie has a strong earnings surprise history, exceeding expectations in the last four quarters with an average earnings surprise of 2.29%, including a 2.74% surprise in the last quarter [3]. - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5]. Sales Drivers - Sales in the fourth quarter are likely driven by newer immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, with consensus estimates of $3.58 billion and$1.72 billion, respectively [7]. - Humira, AbbVie's blockbuster drug, is facing sales erosion after losing patent protection in January 2023, with consensus estimates for its sales at 1.94 billion [8]. - Sales for the J&J-partnered Imbruvica are expected to decline due to competition, while Roche-partnered Venclexta sales are likely to rise [9]. - Neuroscience sales are projected to be strong, driven by drugs like Vraylar and new migraine treatments, with estimates at 2.47 billion [10]. - Aesthetics product sales are expected to be negatively impacted by sluggish growth in the U.S. and China, with estimates at $1.39 billion [11]. Stock Performance and Valuation - AbbVie shares have risen nearly 8% over the past year, outperforming the industry but underperforming the S&P 500 [12]. - The stock trades at a forward price/earnings ratio of 14.39, lower than the industry average of 16.00, indicating attractive valuation [15]. Investment Outlook - Despite challenges such as Humira's biosimilar erosion and competitive pressures, AbbVie is well-positioned for growth, driven by strong sales from Rinvoq, Skyrizi, and other newer drugs [18]. - The company is generating double-digit sales growth from its ex-Humira platform, which constitutes over 80% of total sales [19]. - AbbVie is actively pursuing collaborations to strengthen its pipeline and drive long-term growth [20]. - Long-term investors may find current valuations reasonable for investment, with potential opportunities arising from any significant share price declines [21].