Vale Q4 Iron Ore Output Declines Y/Y, Copper & Nickel Rise

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. reported a decline in iron ore production for Q4 2024, primarily due to a strategic shift towards higher-margin products, while overall production for the year met guidance and showed an increase compared to 2023 [1][2][5]. Iron Ore Production and Sales - Q4 2024 iron ore production was approximately 85 million tons, down 4.6% year-over-year, but full-year production reached 328 million tons, a 2% increase from 2023, marking the highest output since 2018 [1][2][5]. - The S11D mine achieved record production of 23.7 million tons in Q4, while the Brucutu site also saw its highest quarterly production since 2019 due to the commissioning of a new processing line [2]. - Iron ore fines sales in Q4 declined 10% year-over-year to 69.9 million tons, with total iron ore sales down 10% to 81.2 million tons, attributed to portfolio optimization [4][5]. Pellet Production - Pellet production decreased by 7% year-over-year to 9.2 million tons in Q4, mainly due to maintenance activities at the Vargem Grande plant, while full-year pellet production was up 1.2% to 36.9 million tons [3]. Copper Operations - Copper production in Q4 was 101.8 thousand tons, a 2.7% increase year-over-year, driven by enhanced performance at Salobo mines [6]. - Copper sales for Q4 rose 1.5% to 99 thousand tons, with full-year production up 6.6% to 348.2 thousand tons, exceeding guidance [7]. Nickel Production - Nickel production increased by 1.3% year-over-year to 45.5 thousand tons in Q4, while full-year production was down 3% to 159.9 thousand tons [9][10]. - Nickel sales decreased by 1.7% in Q4 to 47.1 thousand tons, with the average realized nickel price down 12% year-over-year [9]. Financial Performance - The average realized price for iron ore fines in Q4 was $93 per ton, down 21.4$95.3 per ton, an 11.8% decrease from 2023 [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale's Q4 revenues is $10.03 billion, indicating a 23% year-over-year decline [11]. Future Guidance - Vale expects iron ore production in 2025 to be between 325-335 million tons, with copper production projected at 340-370 thousand tons and nickel output between 160-175 thousand tons [12].