基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 * [16] A. A. K. * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周铁矿价格高位持续回落。本周商品市场有色波动较大，带动商品市场情绪有所反复，而本轮铁矿价格波动不大，且随 着短期市场情绪和资金扰动接近尾声，矿价逐步回归基本面逻辑。基本面方面，供应端持续贡献较大增量，供应宽松格局得到延续， 进口铁矿港口库存持续较快增加；需求端，国内终端用钢需求难以看到显著好转。从交易逻辑来看，春节后市场交易逻辑有望集中在 上半年终端用钢需求恢复情况。上半年可能出现需求不及预期，2025年下半年以来国内用钢需求持续回落，在2025上半年高基数背 景下2026年上半年用钢需求预计贡献减量，国内铁矿石基本面的弱化有望延续，铁矿高估值预计难以持续。 整体来看，当前市场主要由宏观和资金主导，本周宏观情绪有所降温，矿价估值中性偏高。同时国内铁矿石基本面的弱化有望延续， 铁矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) is recognized for its low forward PE ratios and has seen a significant stock price increase, leading to an upgraded price target by BofA Securities from $15 to $17 while maintaining a Buy rating [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Ratings - Vale's shares rose by 47% in 2025, outperforming its industry peers [1]. - BofA Securities has increased its price target for Vale S.A. to $17, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [1]. Group 2: Operational Strengths - The firm highlighted Vale's solid operational execution, robust free cash flow (FCF) yields, and de-risking as key factors for its stock's outperformance in 2025 [2]. - Vale has regained its status as the world's leading iron ore miner, indicating strong market positioning [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - BofA identified five reasons for Vale S.A. being a top pick for 2026: portfolio versatility, growth in iron ore and copper, improved cost and spending discipline, stronger cash generation compared to competitors, and advancements in operational de-risking [3]. - Vale S.A. operates in the production and sale of iron ore and iron ore pellets, essential for steelmaking, both in Brazil and internationally [3].

Company Overview - Vale S.A., founded in 1942 and based in Rio de Janeiro, is a major global mining company with operations across the Americas, Europe, and Asia, primarily known for iron ore, nickel, and copper, while also producing by-products like gold and silver [1] - The company is investing in renewable energy through its energy transition segment, aiming for a more sustainable mining future [1] Market Performance - Vale's stock has surged 90% over the past 52 weeks, reaching a recent high of $17.34, and has increased 112% from an April low of $8.06 [5] - The stock has shown strong momentum with gains of 46% over the past three months and 33% in the last month [5] Financial Performance - In Q3, Vale reported a net profit of $2.69 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, with net operating revenue climbing 9% annually to $10.4 billion [8] - Adjusted EBITDA rose 21% year-over-year to $4.4 billion, exceeding forecasts [8] - Recurring free cash flow reached $1.6 billion, significantly higher than the previous year, while total free cash flow surged 337% year-over-year to $2.6 billion [9] Operational Highlights - Sales of iron ore, copper, and nickel increased by 5%, 20%, and 6% year-over-year, respectively, with iron ore production hitting its highest quarterly level since 2018 [10] - Capital spending totaled $1.3 billion, aligning with the company's 2025 guidance of $5.4 billion to $5.7 billion [11] Future Outlook - Vale is expected to release its fiscal year results soon, with EPS anticipated to rise 15% year-over-year to $2.09 [12] - Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating for Vale, with a consensus indicating potential upside from the current stock price [12]

本文共4160字， 阅读需约14分钟 想进群看深度投研？现在就行动！ 点赞＋推荐＋分享到朋友圈，截图发给 Fafa（微信：rockflowfafa），马上开通 RockFlow 社群资格。 额外福利：年度 AI 报告合集，先到先得。 在过去二十年的叙事里，大多数投资者沉浸在"比特"吞噬"原子"的幻觉中，笃信软件定义一切，算法足以重构世界。 划重点 ① 过去二十年，互联网重构了世界，但也让投资者落入"比特吞噬原子"的陷阱。长期以来，有 色金属被固化为"传统行业"。但在 2026 年，工业金属已不再单纯是随波逐流的周期股，而是 AI 物理底座的"优先受益标的"。 ② 我们正处于能源介质大迁徙的奇点：铜作为算力血管面临品位通缩；铝作为"固态电力"享受 充分溢价；锡在半导体封装的微缩中化身沉默税收；镍则在高镍电池回归中重获估值主权。供 需两侧的"完美风暴"已然成型，十年资本支出断层带来的产量滞后，正让存量矿产资源迸发出 更大价值。 ③ 2026 年，投资有色金属的胜负手不再是博取波段价差，而是锁定稀缺资源。麦克莫兰 （FCX）凭借极致成本锚点对标早期能源巨头，美国铝业（AA）则充分收割能源套利。在美元 信用波动的背景 ...

格隆汇1月29日丨中金公司维持淡水河谷"跑赢行业"评级，目标价20.5美元。 ...

中金公司维持淡水河谷"跑赢行业"评级，目标价20.5美元。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On January 28, the main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded after a decline, recovering part of the previous day's losses. The closing price of J2605 was 1684 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%, and the trading volume was 13,284 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1134.5 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44%, and the trading volume was 714,203 lots [5]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coke 2605 contract continued to decline, but the J - value was significantly dull. The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coking coal 2605 contract showed a differentiated trend, with the J - value and K - value turning up and the D - value continuing to decline. The green columns of the MACD of the daily line of coke and coking coal 2605 contracts enlarged for the second consecutive trading day [8]. Group 3: Spot Market - On January 28, the flat - price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1455 yuan/ton, in Lvliang was 1483 yuan/ton, in Linfen was 1640 yuan/ton, in Handan was 1420 yuan/ton, in Heze was 1430 yuan/ton, and in Pingdingshan was 1660 yuan/ton, all with no change [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - News: The regulatory policy tightening led to the decline of metal prices with poor fundamentals. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, and the coal - coke prices rebounded after reaching a low [10]. - Fundamentals: Independent coking enterprises have been in continuous losses for 5 weeks, and the loss amplitude has been expanding for 3 weeks. The coke production has decreased slightly for 2 consecutive weeks after increasing in the first 2 weeks of the year. The port coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks, and the steel mill coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early October last year, while the coking enterprise coke inventory has increased after decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has rebounded since January 12, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically remained above 190,000 tons recently. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since the end of January last year, while the coking coal inventory of steel enterprises and ports has been relatively stable [10]. - Forecast: The news has a dual impact on the coal - coke futures prices, but the fundamentals change little, resulting in the relative stability of coal - coke futures. It is expected that the market may first decline and then rise. It is advisable to try the strategy of buying for hedging or investment at low prices after the callback stabilizes [11]. Group 5: Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the total assets of central enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan, with a total profit of 2.5 trillion yuan, fixed - asset investment of 5.1 trillion yuan, and tax payment of 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025. The investment in strategic emerging industries was 2.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.8% of the total investment [12]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, 940 million tons of crude steel production capacity, 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 170 million kilowatts of coal - fired power units have completed ultra - low emission transformation [12]. - The number and production capacity of open - pit coal mines in China will continue to increase, and their position in the energy supply system will become more important [12]. - By January 25, Wuhai Energy Company completed 1.2284 million tons of raw coal production and 1.0239 million tons of commercial coal sales, achieving a good start [13]. - Haohua Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 419 million yuan and 569 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 45.08% - 59.55% [13]. - Baofeng Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 11 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 73.57% - 89.34% [13]. - In 2025, the raw coal production of large - scale industrial enterprises in Ningxia was 10.28106 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [13]. - In 2025, Shaanxi added 30.95 million tons/year of coal production capacity, and 10.04 million kilowatts of renewable energy installed capacity [13]. - The iron ore "water - rail intermodal transport" business of Hubei Energy Jingzhou Coal Port was officially launched [13]. - Shanxi is promoting economic development and "major project construction year" work [13]. - Hudong - Zhonghua Shipbuilding signed a contract to build 4 + 2 LNG carriers [14]. - Huaibei Mining expects its net profit in 2025 to be about 1.495 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.21% [14]. - China National Energy Group opened a new coal supply channel to the central - China region [14]. - Northeast Power Grid's power consumption load reached a record high in late December 2025 [14]. - The daily power generation of Datang Huayin Electric Power's thermal power units reached a record high [14]. - Shanxi Coking expects to be profitable in 2025, but its net profit will decline by more than 50% year - on - year [14]. - In 2025, China's effective supply of coking coal was close to 480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The net import volume of coking coal decreased for the first time since 2021, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4% [14]. - In 2025, the freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port reached 42.433 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, a record high [14]. - The anti - dumping measures for stainless steel welded pipes originating from China in the Eurasian Economic Union will be extended to November 12, 2026 [14]. - Mongolia plans to produce 90 million tons of coal, 1.9 million tons of copper, and 9.4 million tons of iron ore in 2026 [14]. - India and the EU reached a free - trade agreement on January 27 [14]. - India's coal production target for the 2026 - 27 fiscal year is 1.31 billion tons [15]. - A barge collision accident in Indonesia may affect coal barge transportation [15]. - In 2025, Brazil's Vale's iron ore production reached 336 million tons, a new high since 2018 [15]. - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and oil [15]. - In 2025, South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal's coal export volume increased by 11% year - on - year to 57.66 million tons, a four - year high [15]. - India Oil Corporation plans to purchase at least 24 million barrels of Brazilian crude oil in the next two years [15].

VALE S.A. (VALE) closed the most recent trading day at $16.76, moving +1.95% from the previous trading session. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.01%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.03%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.17%. The company's stock has climbed by 25.5% in the past month, exceeding the Basic Materials sector's gain of 11% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.78%.The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of VALE S.A. ...

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2025年第四季度，铁矿石产量总计9040万吨，同比增长510万吨，增幅为6%，这得益于布鲁库图 (Brucutu)矿区的强劲业绩，以及卡帕内玛(Capanema)项目和大瓦尔任1号工厂(VGR1)项目的持续达产。 球团产量总计830万吨，同比减少80万吨，减幅为9%，反映出市场状况。铁矿石销量达到8490万吨，同 比增长370万吨，增幅为5%，与产量增长保持一致。 2025年第四季度，铜产量总计10.81万吨，同比增长0.63万吨，增幅为6%，系2018年以来最高季度 产量，这一增长得益于萨洛博(Salobo)运营区创下历史最高产量，以及索塞古(Sossego)运营区和加拿大 多金属资产保持稳定运营业绩。 2025年第四季度，镍总计4.62万吨，同比增长0.07万吨，增幅为2%，这得益于昂萨布玛(Onça Puma)2号熔炉成功启用，以及沃伊斯湾(Voisey"s Bay)地下矿逐步达产。(完) 标签： (相关资料图) (记者 林春茵)当地时间1月27日，总部位于巴西里约热内卢的矿业巨头淡水河谷发布2025年第四季 度和2025年产销量报告。 报告指出，2025年，淡水河谷所有业务均实现强劲运营业绩，超出年 ...