Analysts Estimate Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on February 7, 2025, with a consensus estimate of a quarterly loss of $0.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -333.3% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $625.2 million, down 12.2% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 170% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a significant reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Green Plains is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -41.49% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with a strong predictor for positive readings [7][8]. - Green Plains currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Green Plains exceeded expectations with earnings of $0.35 per share against an estimate of $0.11, resulting in a surprise of +218.18% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Market Context - The performance of Green Plains may not solely dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [14]. - Despite not appearing as a compelling earnings-beat candidate, other market factors should be considered when evaluating the stock [16]. Industry Comparison - Linde (LIN), another player in the Zacks Chemical - Specialty industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $3.93 for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year change of +9.5% [17]. - Linde's revenues are projected at $8.36 billion, up 0.7% from the previous year, with a recent EPS estimate revision of 1.4% down [18].