Core Insights - Green Plains Inc. reported significant profitability improvements in Q4 2025, driven by operational execution and tax credit benefits, despite revenue falling short of expectations [1][4] - The company is focusing on carbon capture and low-carbon initiatives, with a target of at least $188 million in adjusted EBITDA from carbon-related activities in 2026 [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q4 2025 was $428.8 million, down approximately 26.6% from $584.0 million in Q4 2024, partly due to the sale of the Obion plant and the end of third-party ethanol marketing [2][4] - Net income attributable to Green Plains was $11.9 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, exceeding analyst estimates [4] - Adjusted EBITDA improved to $49.1 million for the quarter, a significant turnaround from a negative $18.2 million in Q4 2024, aided by operational performance and tax credits [4] Valuation and Financial Ratios - The price-to-sales ratio is low at around 0.4, indicating the stock is trading at a discount relative to revenue [5] - The debt-to-equity ratio stands at a moderate 0.60, while the current ratio of 1.79 suggests solid liquidity [5]

As we previously shared, CO2 from all three Nebraska plants is being sequestered in Wyoming and the impact is lowering CI scores for our plants and generating cash flow. Financially, the focus on operational excellence and our efforts to remove costs from the business have resulted in considerably stronger results compared to last year. Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $49.1 million is an improvement of more than $67 million compared to 2024. We continued to realize the benefits of the 45Z clean fuel production tax cr ...

Green Plains (NasdaqGS:GPRE) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAnn Reis - CFOChris Osowski - President and CEOImre Havasi - SVP of Trading and Commercial OperationsWill Joekel - VP and TreasurerConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Strelzik - AnalystCraig Irwin - AnalystEric Stine - AnalystKristen Owen - AnalystMatthew Blair - AnalystPooran Sharma - AnalystSalvatore Tiano - AnalystOperatorGood morning, and welcome to the Green Plains Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 ...

Green Plains (NasdaqGS:GPRE) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAnn Reis - CFOChris Osowski - President and CEOImre Havasi - SVP of Trading and Commercial OperationsWill Joekel - VP and TreasurerConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Strelzik - AnalystCraig Irwin - AnalystEric Stine - AnalystKing Safon - AnalystKristen Owen - AnalystMatthew Blair - AnalystPooran Sharma - AnalystOperatorGood morning, and welcome to the Green Plains Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earni ...

Green Plains (NasdaqGS:GPRE) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 09:00 AM ET Speaker7Good morning, and welcome to the Green Plains Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Following the company's prepared remarks, instructions will be provided for Q&A. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. I will now turn the call over to your host, Will Yeakel, Vice President and Treasurer. Will, please go ahead.Speaker9Welcome to the Green Plains Inc. Fourth Quarter 2025 ear ...

Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.17 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.08 per share. This compares to a loss of $0.86 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +121.64%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this ethanol production, marketing and commodities company would post earnings of $0.02 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.07, delivering a ...

Factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in this presentation, those discussed under "Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K or incorporated by reference. Specifically, we may experience fluctuations in future operating results due to a number of economic conditions and other factors, including: the failure to realize the anticipated results from the new products being develop ...

Financial Performance - Net income attributable to Green Plains for Q4 2025 was $11.9 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, a significant improvement from a net loss of $54.9 million, or $(0.86) per diluted share, in Q4 2024[1]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $49.1 million, compared to $(18.2) million in Q4 2024, including $27.7 million from 45Z production tax credits[1][2]. - Revenues for Q4 2025 decreased to $428.8 million, down 26.6% from $584.0 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to lower ethanol volumes sold[1][7]. - Ethanol production gross margin for Q4 2025 was $27.2 million, a turnaround from a loss of $(10.4) million in Q4 2024[11]. - Adjusted ethanol production operating income for the quarter was $46.1 million, a significant improvement from an operating loss of $19.9 million in the same quarter of 2024[20]. - For the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, Green Plains Inc. reported a net loss of $121 million, compared to a net loss of $81.2 million for the same period in 2024[36]. - The company generated $110.9 million in net cash from operating activities for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, a significant increase from a cash outflow of $30 million in 2024[36]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, was $94 million, compared to $18.7 million in 2024[38]. Production and Sales - Ethanol production segment sold 178.8 million gallons in Q4 2025, a decrease of 14.7% from 209.5 million gallons in Q4 2024[6][18]. - The consolidated ethanol crush margin improved to $44.4 million in Q4 2025, compared to $(15.5) million in Q4 2024[6]. - The company expects to generate at least $188 million of 45Z-related Adjusted EBITDA in 2026, net of discounts and applicable operating expenses[2]. - The company is actively marketing 2026 45Z production tax credits, indicating a strategic focus on leveraging tax incentives for future growth[4]. Assets and Liabilities - As of December 31, 2025, total cash and cash equivalents, along with restricted cash, amounted to $230.1 million, with an additional $325.0 million available under a committed revolving credit facility[22]. - Total debt outstanding as of December 31, 2025, was $399.5 million, which includes $33.6 million in short-term borrowings[22]. - Green Plains' total assets decreased to $1.58 billion as of December 31, 2025, down from $1.78 billion in 2024[31]. - The company experienced a reduction in inventories, which fell to $148.1 million from $227.4 million year-over-year[31]. Operational Developments - Carbon capture facilities became fully operational at three Nebraska sites, significantly lowering carbon intensity[5]. - The company completed the sale of the Obion, Tennessee plant for $170 million, using proceeds to eliminate $130.7 million in junior mezzanine debt[5]. - Green Plains continues to focus on innovation and operational excellence to drive long-term value in the low-carbon economy[25]. Expenses and Costs - The company incurred $24.3 million in restructuring costs during the twelve months ended December 31, 2025[38]. - Interest expense for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, was $76.7 million, significantly higher than $33.1 million in 2024[38]. - The company reported a depreciation and amortization expense of $98.4 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, compared to $90.6 million in 2024[38]. - Green Plains Inc. recorded a loss on the extinguishment of debt amounting to $36.9 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025[36].

Industry Overview - The renewable fuels industry is undergoing a structural transformation towards a policy-backed, decarbonization-oriented energy sector, focusing on low-carbon, higher-value fuels [1] - Global capacity in the renewable fuels sector is expected to triple by 2028 according to a Bain & Company report [1] Alto Ingredients (ALTO) - Alto Ingredients is transitioning from a conventional fuel ethanol producer to a diversified business focused on specialty alcohols and essential ingredients [3] - The product mix has expanded to include specialty alcohols and ingredients for pharmaceutical, personal care, food, and industrial applications, aimed at diversifying revenue streams and reducing exposure to volatile ethanol pricing [4] - A key strategy involves reducing carbon intensity scores to benefit from the federal Section 45Z clean fuel tax credit, potentially generating up to $18 million in incremental gross benefit over 2025–2026 [5] - Alto is expanding carbon dioxide capture and utilization at its facilities, which adds a higher-margin revenue stream and supports sustainability objectives [6] - The company is focused on operational discipline, streamlining costs, and capitalizing on near-term opportunities with clear return visibility [7] - ALTO shares have risen 17.4% over the past year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 revenues implying a year-over-year increase of 10.5% and EPS growth of 260% [7][12] Green Plains (GPRE) - Green Plains is evolving into a leading biorefining company by commercializing Clean Sugar Technology and producing low-carbon dextrose and glucose for industrial fermentation [8] - The company is restructuring its business mix towards higher-margin protein and renewable ingredients, aiming to reduce exposure to ethanol cyclicality [9] - Green Plains has improved its balance sheet with no near-term debt maturities and enhanced liquidity through asset sales [9] - The company plans to deploy capital to strengthen plant assets, reduce carbon intensity, and explore options for returning capital to shareholders [10] - GPRE shares have also risen 17.4% over the past year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 revenues implying a year-over-year increase of 5.2% and EPS growth of 122.9% [11][12] Comparative Analysis - Both ALTO and GPRE have seen their shares rise 17.4% over the past year, but ALTO's 2026 EPS growth estimate and valuation favor its investment case [8][16] - ALTO is trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 16.88, while GPRE's multiple is at 36.74, indicating that ALTO may offer a less expensive valuation [14]

Core Viewpoint - The comparison between Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) and Hawkins (HWKN) indicates that GPRE is more attractive to value investors due to its stronger earnings estimate revisions and more favorable valuation metrics [1][3][7] Valuation Metrics - GPRE has a forward P/E ratio of 24.56, while HWKN has a forward P/E of 37.14, suggesting GPRE is undervalued compared to HWKN [5] - GPRE's PEG ratio is 0.72, indicating a better growth expectation relative to its price compared to HWKN's PEG ratio of 2.32 [5] - GPRE's P/B ratio is 0.88, significantly lower than HWKN's P/B of 6.18, further supporting GPRE's valuation attractiveness [6] Analyst Outlook - GPRE holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), reflecting a more favorable analyst outlook due to stronger estimate revision activity compared to HWKN, which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3][7] - The Value grade for GPRE is A, while HWKN has a Value grade of C, indicating GPRE's superior valuation metrics [6]