Aflac (AFL) Q4 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Aflac (AFL) will report quarterly earnings of $1.63 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 30.4%, with anticipated revenues of $4.44 billion, an increase of 17.4% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 0.3% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Other income (loss)' to reach $33.22 million, indicating a decrease of 12.6% from the prior-year quarter [4]. - The estimated 'Revenues- Net investment income' is projected at $962.60 million, reflecting an increase of 11.3% year over year [5]. - 'Revenues- Total net earned premiums' is expected to remain unchanged at $3.39 billion year over year [5]. - 'Total adjusted revenues- Corporate and other' is forecasted to reach $236.00 million, showing a significant increase of 210.5% from the previous year [5]. Aflac Japan Metrics - The consensus estimate for 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan' is $2.46 billion, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 1.5% [6]. - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan- Total net earned premiums' is projected at $1.78 billion, reflecting a decline of 3.3% year over year [6]. - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan- Net investment income' is expected to be $680.63 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 2.5% [6]. Aflac U.S. Metrics - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac U.S.- Other income' is estimated at $17.50 million, indicating a decrease of 30% from the prior-year quarter [7]. - The 'Tot. Ben. /Premium - Aflac Japan' is projected to reach 66.9%, up from 56.2% reported in the same quarter last year [7]. - The average prediction for 'Tot. Adj. Expenses/Total Adj. Rev. - Aflac U.S.' is 39.5%, down from 43.4% year over year [8]. - 'Tot. Ben. /Premium - Aflac U.S.' is expected to be 46.6%, compared to 44.6% reported in the same quarter last year [8]. Overall Performance - Aflac shares have returned +4.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.7% change [9].