东吴证券：水泥龙头企业估值有望迎来修复

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that cement prices have seen a significant narrowing in decline as market demand approaches its end before the Spring Festival, with some regions like Guangdong's Pearl River Delta actively raising prices to stabilize profits, which may set a good foundation for price rebounds after the holiday [1] - In the medium term, the cement industry is expected to continue facing substantial losses, which may strengthen supply-side control measures. The optimization of staggered production plans and stabilization of physical demand are anticipated to improve supply-demand balance significantly by Q4 2024, leading to a notable rebound in price levels and positive feedback on supply-side self-discipline for 2025 [1] - The price-to-book ratio of cement companies is currently at historical lows. Mid-term fiscal policies are expected to support the stabilization of physical demand, and the low industry prosperity may present opportunities for further consolidation [1] Group 2 - The cement industry is likely to be included in the national carbon market as the Ministry of Ecology and Environment solicits opinions on the carbon market work plan in September 2024. Although the initial impact on cost curves may be limited, it is expected to change the expectations of later-stage enterprises [1] - The revision of capacity replacement methods and further implementation of capacity and production control policies are expected to accelerate the elimination of excess capacity and industry consolidation [1] - Leading companies are expected to demonstrate comprehensive competitive advantages and benefit from the optimization of industry structure in the medium to long term, with valuations likely to recover. Companies to watch include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement [1]