Vale Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. is anticipated to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024, with significant decreases compared to the previous year [1][4]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale's sales is $10.08 billion, reflecting a 23% decrease from the same quarter last year [4]. - The consensus estimate for earnings has decreased by 13% over the past 60 days to 53 cents per share, indicating a 5.4% year-over-year decline [4]. Earnings Surprise History - Vale has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters and exceeded it in the other two, resulting in an average negative surprise of 0.98% [5]. Production and Sales Performance - Iron ore production was approximately 85 million tons (Mt), down 4.6% year-over-year, as the company focuses on higher-margin products [7]. - Pellet production decreased by 7% year-over-year to 9.2 Mt, while total iron ore sales fell by 10% to 81.2 Mt [8]. - The average realized price for iron ore fines was$ 93 per ton, down 21.4% year-over-year, and for pellets, it was $143 per ton, down 12.5% [9]. Nickel and Copper Sales - Nickel sales were recorded at 47.1 thousand tons (kt), down 1.7% from the previous year, but above the consensus estimate of 45 kt [9]. - Copper sales reached 99 kt, a 1.5% increase year-over-year, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 100 kt [10]. - The average realized price for copper operations was$ 9,187 per ton, up 15.7% year-over-year [10]. Revenue Drivers and Cost Pressures - Overall revenues are expected to benefit from higher copper sales volumes and prices, but this is likely offset by lower sales volumes and prices for iron ore and nickel [11]. - The company has faced rising input costs, particularly for diesel and freight, which have pressured margins, although cost-control measures may mitigate some of this impact [11]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Vale, with an Earnings ESP of -14.69% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [12][13]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, Vale's shares have declined by 28.8%, slightly worse than the industry's decline of 28.5% [14].