CF(CF) ZACKS·2025-02-13 13:46Core Viewpoint - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 19, with indications of a potential earnings beat due to strong nitrogen fertilizer demand and lower natural gas costs, despite lower year-over-year selling prices impacting performance [1][2][5]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - CF Industries has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, with an average earnings surprise of 10.2% over the trailing four quarters [2]. - The Earnings ESP for CF is +1.25%, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter currently at 1,466.4 million, reflecting a decline of approximately 6.7% year over year [7]. - Estimated sales for the Ammonia segment are 355.6 million, suggesting a decrease of 9.3% [9]. - Sales for the Urea Ammonium Nitrate Solution segment are projected at 95.5 million, reflecting a decline of 20.4% year over year [10]. Group 3: Market Factors - CF Industries is expected to benefit from higher global demand for nitrogen fertilizers driven by strong agricultural demand, with healthy nitrogen demand anticipated in the December quarter [11]. - Lower natural gas prices are expected to reduce the company's cost of sales, with the average cost of natural gas falling to 2.54 per MMBtu year over year [12]. - While CF experienced higher selling prices in the third quarter due to increased ammonia prices from lower global supply, weaker year-over-year prices are expected to impact results in the fourth quarter [13].