Should You Buy, Hold or Sell Moderna Stock Post Q4 Earnings Release?

Core Viewpoint - Moderna reported a significant decline in earnings and revenues for Q4 2024, primarily due to reduced sales of its COVID-19 vaccine and underperformance of its RSV vaccine [1][2]. Financial Performance - Adjusted loss was $2.50 per share compared to earnings of$0.55 in the same quarter last year [1]. - Revenues fell 64% year over year to $966 million, driven by declining sales of COVID-19 vaccines [1]. Revenue Guidance - Moderna reiterated its total revenue guidance for 2025, expecting revenues between$1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, mainly from COVID-19 and RSV vaccine sales [2]. - Management anticipates generating approximately$0.2 billion in revenues in the first half of 2025 due to seasonality [2]. Product Launch Plans - The company plans to launch 10 new products over the next three years and has made progress with three regulatory filings to the FDA in Q4 2024 [4]. - Key filings include mRNA-1283 (next-generation COVID-19 vaccine) and mRNA-1083 (COVID-19 and influenza combination vaccine), with decisions expected by May 31, 2025, and June 12, 2025, respectively [4][5]. Pipeline Development - Moderna has over 40 mRNA-based investigational candidates in various clinical stages, including vaccines for CMV and influenza [6][7]. - The mRNA-4157 candidate, developed in partnership with Merck, is undergoing pivotal late-stage studies for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer [8]. Competitive Landscape - Despite its mRNA technology advantages, Moderna faces competition from major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and GSK [11]. - The sales performance of the RSV vaccine mResvia has been disappointing, facing competition from GSK's Arexvy and Pfizer's Abrysvo [12]. Stock Performance and Valuation - MRNA stock has declined nearly 63% over the past year, underperforming the industry and broader market [13]. - The stock currently trades at a price/sales (P/S) ratio of 3.93, higher than the industry average of 2.16 [16]. Analyst Outlook - Short-term investors are advised to avoid the stock due to negative sentiment and reduced sales guidance [17]. - Long-term investors may find value in Moderna's product pipeline and mRNA technology, with improving estimates for losses per share for 2025 and 2026 [18][19].