Palantir to crash over 50%, warns Wall Street analyst

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's stock has reached an all-time high, but analysts express caution due to fundamental concerns that may negatively impact the stock's future performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Projections - Palantir's stock price hit $124.62 on February 18, 2025, marking a nearly 5$60, indicating a downside of approximately 51% [2]. Group 2: Hiring and Revenue Growth Concerns - Palantir's total headcount increased by only 5% in 2024, adding 201 employees, following a net reduction of 103 employees in 2023, suggesting a cautious approach to workforce expansion [4]. - U.S. revenue grew by 38% year-over-year in 2024, while international revenue remained flat at 14% growth, raising concerns about the company's global scalability [5]. Group 3: Insider Selling and Leadership Changes - There has been an increase in insider selling, with CEO Alex Karp and President Stephen Cohen potentially selling nearly 10 million and 4 million shares, respectively, indicating a lack of confidence in near-term growth [6]. - The resignation of Chief Accounting Officer Heather Planishek, effective February 24, 2025, adds uncertainty to Palantir's leadership, with no immediate successor named [7]. Group 4: Customer Dependence and Revenue Concentration - Palantir added 214 net new customers in 2024, but remains reliant on a few major clients, with revenue from the top 20 customers growing to $64.6 million, while the top three now account for 17% of total revenue [8]. Group 5: Valuation and Institutional Selling - Concerns about Palantir's overvaluation persist, despite some analysts believing the company will lead the software AI segment [9]. - Institutional investors, including Cathie Wood of Ark Invest Management, have been offloading Palantir stock, indicating potential concerns about the company's future performance [10].