Prologis (PLD) Up 5.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Core Viewpoint - Prologis has shown a positive trend in its stock performance, with shares increasing by approximately 5.7% since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500. The upcoming earnings release will be crucial in determining whether this trend continues or if a pullback occurs [1]. Financial Performance - Prologis reported a fourth-quarter 2024 core FFO per share of $1.50, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.38 and up from $1.26 in the same quarter last year [2]. - Rental revenues for the quarter were $1.94 billion, slightly missing the consensus estimate by 0.09%, but showing an increase from $1.76 billion year-over-year. Total revenues reached $2.2 billion, up from $1.89 billion in the previous year [3]. - For the full year 2024, core FFO per share was $5.56, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous year, but still beating the consensus estimate of $5.45. Rental revenues totaled $7.51 billion, a 10.2% year-over-year increase, although it fell short of the consensus mark of $7.52 billion [4]. Leasing and Occupancy - In the fourth quarter, Prologis commenced 46.5 million square feet of leases, with a retention level of 78.4%. The average occupancy rate was 95.6%, down from 95.9% in the prior quarter and 97.1% year-over-year [5][6]. - The company's share of net effective rent change was 66.3%, with a cash rent change of 40.1%. Cash same-store net operating income (NOI) grew by 6.7%, compared to 7.2% in the previous quarter [6]. Capital Deployment and Acquisitions - Prologis made acquisitions totaling $384 million, with a weighted average stabilized cap rate of 5.9%. Development stabilization reached $827 million, with 54% being built to suit, while development starts totaled $375 million. Total dispositions and contributions were $1.955 billion, with a weighted average stabilized cap rate of 4.4% [7]. Interest Expenses and Liquidity - Interest expenses increased by 33.1% year-over-year to $232.2 million [8]. - The company ended the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.32 billion, up from $780.9 million at the end of the third quarter. Total liquidity was $7.38 billion, with debt representing 25.6% of total market capitalization [9]. 2025 Guidance - Prologis provided guidance for 2025 core FFO per share in the range of $5.65-$5.81, with expected average occupancy between 94.5% and 95.5%. Cash same-store NOI is projected to grow by 4-5%. The company anticipates capital deployment for development starts of $2.25-$2.75 billion and acquisitions of $750 million-$1.25 billion, with dispositions estimated at $1.00-$1.50 billion [11]. Market Sentiment - There has been a downward trend in estimates revision for Prologis over the past month, with the stock currently holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of an in-line return in the coming months [12][14].