Why Rivian stock price is crashing

Core Viewpoint - Rivian's stock has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, initially rising due to strong delivery figures but later declining due to analyst downgrades and concerns over EV incentives [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Rivian stock reached $16.49 in early January 2025, the highest since July 2024, driven by surpassing analyst delivery estimates [1]. - By late January, the stock price fell to $12.69 due to analyst downgrades and political factors affecting EV incentives [1]. - As of February 21, the stock opened at $12.89, marking a 7.99% drop from the previous day's close of $14.01, contributing to a weekly loss of 8.58% and year-to-date losses of 3.12% [2]. Group 2: Earnings Report - Rivian's Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings report revealed a loss per share of $0.46, which was better than the consensus estimate of $0.65, and revenues of $1.73 billion, exceeding the forecast of $1.4 billion [4]. - Despite the earnings beat, the guidance for 2025 indicated expected deliveries of 46,000 to 51,000 units, lower than the 52,000 delivered in 2024 and below analyst expectations of 55,000 [5]. - The company anticipates a loss before interest and taxes between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion for 2025, slightly above the average forecast of $1.69 billion [5]. Group 3: Vehicle Recall and Analyst Revisions - Following the earnings call, Rivian announced a recall of over 17,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to a headlight issue [6]. - Most analyst revisions post-earnings have been positive, although they project only modest, single-digit upside for the stock over the next 12 months [6].