Countdown to Mosaic (MOS) Q4 Earnings: A Look at Estimates Beyond Revenue and EPS

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Mosaic (MOS) will report quarterly earnings of $0.53 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 25.4%, with anticipated revenues of $2.93 billion, a decline of 7% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 12.2% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong relationship between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue and Sales Forecasts - Analysts estimate 'Net sales- Phosphates' will reach $1.20 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12% [5]. - 'Net sales- Mosaic Fertilizantes' is forecasted at $1.17 billion, indicating a slight decline of 1.6% from the prior year [5]. - The average prediction for 'Net sales- Potash' is $551.75 million, reflecting a significant decline of 27.2% compared to the previous year [5]. Price and Cost Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Potash - Average finished product selling price (destination)' is $242.70, down from $294 a year ago [6]. - 'Phosphates - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product' is projected to reach 1,647.52 KTon, an increase from 1,582 KTon reported in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Potash - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product' is expected to be 2,286.80 KTon, down from 2,577 KTon a year ago [7]. - 'Phosphates - Realized costs - Blended rock' is expected to be $83.00 per Ton, up from $77 per Ton in the previous year [8]. Additional Metrics - 'Mosaic Fertilizantes - Average finished product selling price (destination)' is estimated at $552.56, slightly up from $552 a year ago [9]. - 'Phosphates - Average finished product selling price (destination)' is projected to reach $680.87, compared to $658 in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Mosaic have returned -8.7%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.5% change, indicating a potential alignment with overall market performance [11].