A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS) . Shares have added about 16.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, fresh ...

Core Insights - The Mosaic Company (MOS) shares reached a 52-week high of $37.43, closing at $36.95, with a year-over-year gain of 26.8% compared to the industry's 16.8% growth [1][2]. Company Performance - Mosaic has a market capitalization of approximately $11.7 billion and holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [2]. - The company reported adjusted earnings of 49 cents per share for Q1 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 39 cents [3]. Market Dynamics - Strong global demand for phosphate and potash is being driven by favorable agricultural conditions, with improved farm economics leading to increased fertilizer demand [3][4]. - Elevated global demand for grains and oilseeds, along with higher crop prices, is expected to sustain fertilizer usage, particularly in North America, Brazil, and India [4]. Cost Management and Projections - Mosaic is implementing transformation initiatives aimed at improving cost efficiency, targeting $150 million in annualized savings by the end of 2025 [5][7]. - The company projects second-quarter sales volumes for its Potash segment to be between 2.3 million and 2.5 million tons, while Phosphate segment sales volumes are expected to range from 1.7 million to 1.9 million tons [5][8].

Company Overview - Mosaic (MOS) currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a positive outlook based on its price change and earnings estimate revisions [2][3] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] Price Performance - Over the past week, MOS shares have increased by 7.77%, while the Zacks Fertilizers industry remained flat [5] - In a longer time frame, MOS has shown a monthly price change of 29.12%, outperforming the industry's 16.3% [5] - Over the past quarter, shares of Mosaic have risen by 36.69%, and gained 15.03% in the last year, compared to the S&P 500's performance of -2.26% and 13.85% respectively [6] Trading Volume - The average 20-day trading volume for MOS is 5,836,759 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the last two months, 4 earnings estimates for MOS have been revised upwards, while only 1 estimate was revised downwards, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $2.11 to $2.63 [9] - For the next fiscal year, 4 estimates have also moved upwards with no downward revisions [9] Conclusion - Considering the positive price trends, strong earnings outlook, and favorable trading volume, MOS is positioned as a solid momentum pick with a Momentum Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [11]

Core Viewpoint - Mosaic (MOS) is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its improving earnings outlook and analysts' increasing earnings estimates [1][2]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - The trend of rising earnings estimate revisions reflects growing analyst optimism regarding Mosaic's earnings prospects, which is expected to positively impact its stock price [2]. - For the current quarter, Mosaic is projected to earn $0.74 per share, representing a 37.04% increase from the previous year [6]. - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter has increased by 10.53% due to two upward revisions and one downward revision [6]. - For the full year, Mosaic is expected to earn $2.63 per share, indicating a 32.83% increase from the prior year [7]. - The consensus estimate for the current year has risen by 23.6% following four upward revisions with no negative changes [8]. Zacks Rank and Performance - Mosaic has achieved a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating favorable conditions for investment based on the positive estimate revisions [9]. - Historically, stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 [9]. - The stock has gained 24.9% over the past four weeks, driven by solid estimate revisions and positive earnings growth prospects [10].

Group 1 - The Mosaic Company (MOS) has launched a new biostimulant product, Neptunion, in China, aimed at helping crops withstand abiotic stresses like drought, salinity, and heat [1] - Neptunion is part of MOS Biosciences' sustainable ag technology product line, which focuses on improving crop yields while reducing environmental impact [2] - The stock of MOS has increased by 9.5% over the past year, slightly outperforming the industry growth of 9.4% [4] Group 2 - For the second quarter, MOS expects Potash segment sales volumes to be between 2.3 million tons and 2.5 million tons, and Phosphate division sales volumes to be projected at 1.7-1.9 million tons, indicating strong global demand [5] - The company anticipates that sales volumes for the Mosaic Fertilizantes unit will be approximately 30% higher in the second quarter compared to the first quarter [5] - The distribution margin is forecasted to remain in the normalized range of $30-$40 per ton annually [5] Group 3 - MOS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook compared to other stocks in the Basic Materials sector [6] - Other top-ranked stocks in the same sector include Akzo Nobel N.V. (AKZOY), Newmont Corporation (NEM), and Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. (IDR), with AKZOY rated as a Strong Buy [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing, which focuses on identifying undervalued companies in the market [2][3] - Zacks has developed a Style Scores system to help investors find stocks with specific traits, particularly in the Value category [3] Company Analysis: The Mosaic Company (MOS) - The Mosaic Company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and an A grade for Value, indicating it is among the strongest value stocks currently [3] - MOS has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.91, which is attractive compared to the industry average of 1.51 [4] - Over the past 52 weeks, MOS's P/B ratio has fluctuated between 0.61 and 0.91, with a median of 0.73 [4] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for MOS is 0.96, compared to the industry's average P/S of 1.44, suggesting it is undervalued [5] Company Analysis: Yara International ASA (YARIY) - Yara International ASA is rated 1 (Strong Buy) with a Value score of A, making it another solid option for value investors [6] - YARIY has a P/B ratio of 1.14, which is below the industry average of 1.51 [6] - The P/B ratio for YARIY has ranged from 0.87 to 1.18 over the past year, with a median of 1.01 [6] Conclusion on Value Stocks - Both The Mosaic Company and Yara International ASA are highlighted as likely undervalued stocks, supported by their strong earnings outlook [7]

Core Insights - Mosaic is a significant player in the agricultural sector and the global food production chain, currently undergoing a transformation process that could establish a strong foundation for future growth [1]. Company Overview - Mosaic operates within the agricultural sector, focusing on key aspects of food production [1]. Investment Potential - The transformation process Mosaic is experiencing may enhance its long-term potential, making it an attractive option for value-focused investors [1].

Company Overview - The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is a global leader in the production of mineral fertilizers, focusing on phosphorous and potash products [1] - Founded in 2004, the company has achieved significant growth through vertical business integration [1] Industry Position - Mosaic has established itself as a powerful player in the fertilizer industry, leveraging its expertise in mineral production [1] - The company specializes in key agricultural inputs that are essential for crop production, thereby playing a critical role in the global food supply chain [1]

Financial Performance - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, Mosaic reported net sales of $2,620.9 million, a decrease of 2% from $2,679.4 million in the same period of 2024[106]. - Gross margin increased by 22% to $488.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $399.2 million in the prior year, driven by higher average selling prices in the Phosphates segment[106]. - Operating earnings surged 96% to $338.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $172.9 million in the prior year[106]. - Net income attributable to Mosaic increased significantly to $238.1 million, or $0.75 per diluted share, compared to $45.2 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, in the prior year[107]. Segment Performance - The Phosphate segment's net sales decreased by 6% to $1,098.6 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily due to lower finished goods sales volumes[114]. - Average finished product selling price in the Phosphate segment increased by 7% to $632 per tonne for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $593 per tonne in the prior year[115]. - Operating earnings in the Potash segment decreased to $157 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, down from $198 million in the prior year, primarily due to lower average selling prices and sales volumes[110]. - Operating earnings in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment increased to $99 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $42 million in the prior year, driven by cost improvements and increased sales volumes[111]. - The Potash segment's net sales decreased to $570.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, down from $643.1 million in the same period a year ago, representing an 11% decline[123]. - Average finished product selling price in the Potash segment was $234 per tonne for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $258 per tonne a year ago, a decrease of 9%[124]. - Gross margin for the Potash segment decreased to $168.6 million, down from $211.7 million, reflecting a 20% decline due to lower selling prices and sales volumes[125]. - The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment's net sales increased to $933.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, up from $886.4 million, a 5% increase driven by higher finished goods sales volumes[131]. - Average finished product selling price in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment was $452 per tonne, down from $463 per tonne, a decrease of 2%[132]. - Gross margin for the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment increased to $127.0 million, up from $75.2 million, a 69% increase primarily due to lower product costs[133]. Currency and Foreign Exchange - Foreign currency transaction gain for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $133.1 million, compared to a loss of $100.3 million in the prior year[107]. - The average consumed price for ammonia increased by 3% to $416 per tonne for the three months ended March 31, 2025, while the average consumed sulfur price increased by 11% to $157 per long ton[118]. - The average consumed price for ammonia in Brazilian operations decreased to $684 per tonne, down from $705 per tonne, a decline of 3%[135]. - The foreign currency transaction gain was $133.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to a loss of $100.3 million in the prior year, reflecting a significant improvement[143]. - As of March 31, 2025, the fair value of Mosaic's major foreign currency exchange contracts was $(26.7) million, a decrease from $(82.6) million as of December 31, 2024[170]. - The notional amount of short Canadian dollars was $218.1 million with a weighted average rate of 1.4088 Canadian dollars to 1 U.S. dollar as of March 31, 2025[171]. - The notional amount of long Brazilian real was $446.0 million with a weighted average rate of 5.8488 Brazilian real to 1 U.S. dollar as of March 31, 2025[171]. - The fair value of natural gas commodities contracts was zero as of March 31, 2025, compared to $(1.8) million as of December 31, 2024[173]. - Mosaic uses financial instruments such as forward contracts and futures to hedge against currency exchange rate fluctuations, particularly for the Canadian dollar and Brazilian real[169]. - The company hedges cash flows on a declining basis, up to 18 months for the Canadian dollar and up to 12 months for the Brazilian real[169]. - The fair value of foreign currency exchange derivatives reflects significant exposure to the Canadian dollar and Brazilian real, impacting earnings and cash flows[170]. - The company reported a total fair value of $(26.7) million for foreign currency exchange contracts as of March 31, 2025[171]. - The management's discussion includes further information regarding foreign currency exchange rates and derivatives in the 10-K Report[170]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the net cash provided by operating activities was $42.9 million, a significant improvement of $122.9 million compared to a net cash used of $80.0 million in the same period last year[155]. - The company had cash and cash equivalents of $259.2 million, short-term debt of $1.2 billion, and long-term debt of approximately $3.4 billion as of March 31, 2025[151]. - During the three months ended March 31, 2025, the company returned cash dividends of $70.9 million and invested $340.8 million in capital expenditures[151]. - The net cash used in investing activities was $340.8 million, a decrease of 12% from $387.8 million in the prior year period[154]. - The company had $2.50 billion available under its committed revolving credit facility and approximately $0.8 billion available under uncommitted facilities as of March 31, 2025[152]. - The unfavorable change in assets and liabilities for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was primarily driven by increases in inventories of $162.4 million[156]. - The company received net proceeds of $202.1 million under its inventory financing arrangement during the three months ended March 31, 2025[158]. - The company expects its liquidity to fluctuate, particularly in the first quarter of each year, to manage through the seasonality of its business[151]. - The company had a target liquidity buffer of up to $3.0 billion, including cash and available credit lines[151]. - The company anticipates that funds generated from operations and available cash will be sufficient to finance operations, capital expenditures, and expected dividend payments for the next 12 months and beyond[152]. Expenses and Taxation - Selling, general and administrative expenses increased by $15.8 million to $122.6 million, primarily due to higher incentive compensation and employee benefit costs[140]. - The effective tax rate for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was 20.2%, with income tax expense amounting to $63.3 million[146].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for the first quarter of 2025 was $238 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $544 million, reflecting strong phosphate prices and improving potash prices [9][10] - First quarter realized prices were $623 per ton for phosphate and $223 per ton for potash, exceeding guidance ranges [10][11] - Free cash flow generation was constrained by typical working capital seasonality, with expected CapEx of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion for the year [21][40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Phosphate production was 1.4 million tons in Q1 2025, with a production volume outlook maintained at 7.2 million to 7.6 million tons for the year [15][16] - Potash production cash cost per ton was $78, up from $72 in the prior year quarter, with expectations for costs to decline as production increases [33][34] - Mosaic Biosciences revenue more than doubled year-over-year, driven by strong sales of existing products and new product launches [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global fertilizer demand remains strong, with robust demand in Brazil and a projected increase in shipments to exceed 47 million tons [24][25] - Phosphate demand is driven by rising lithium iron phosphate production in China, which grew 55% in Q1 2025 [12][13] - The North American spring season is expected to see typical demand for both phosphate and potash, with limited channel inventory remaining [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on normalizing phosphate production and operating costs, with a strategic emphasis on capital reallocation and shedding non-core assets [6][8] - Mosaic's expansive market access, particularly in Brazil, positions the company well for growth amid geopolitical tensions [12][16] - The company anticipates significant opportunities for growth in new markets and products, particularly through its Mosaic Biosciences division [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term market fundamentals, despite uncertainties in global trade policies [6][12] - The company expects further improvements in segment profitability in Q2 2025, driven by seasonal demand increases [16][37] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining cost discipline and improving asset reliability to enhance operational performance [13][14] Other Important Information - The company is on track to achieve its full-year unit cost targets, with expectations for cash flow generation to improve in the remainder of the year [16][40] - The capital reallocation program is progressing, with discussions on non-core potash assets accelerating [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Assessment of Bartow, New Wales, and Riverview operations - Management indicated that the assessment remains similar to previous evaluations, with ongoing reliability enhancement projects paying off [45][46][50] Question: Impact of tariffs on ammonia supply - Management confirmed that current ammonia purchases have not incurred tariff impacts, with most supply coming from exempt sources [52][54] Question: Phosphate pricing and maintenance costs - Management acknowledged extraordinary maintenance costs but expects conversion costs to decline as production normalizes [60][64] Question: Potash market dynamics and Belarusian shipments - Management noted that while Belarusian shipments have not decreased, production cuts from other regions are expected to support pricing [66][68] Question: Cost of production cadence for potash - Management anticipates significant improvements in cash costs as low-cost production ramps up in the latter half of the year [71][73] Question: Mosaic's role in supply and demand dynamics - Management indicated that increased production will still align with tight supply-demand balances, particularly in phosphates [76][80] Question: Cash flow and working capital expectations - Management expects improved cash flow generation, with incremental EBITDA translating into cash flows despite working capital increases [89][92] Question: Mosaic Biosciences growth and strategy - Management outlined plans for significant revenue growth in Mosaic Biosciences, with a focus on proprietary products and market expansion [95][102]