What Should Investors Expect From Steven Madden Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in revenues for the fourth quarter of 2024, with a consensus estimate of $548.6 million, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous year [1][2]. Revenue Performance - The company's revenues are projected to grow due to strategic initiatives, including a focus on direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, diversification into accessories and apparel, and strengthening international presence [4][7]. - DTC channel revenues are anticipated to increase by 6.8% year over year in the fourth quarter, driven by enhancements in e-commerce and digital marketing strategies [5]. - Wholesale revenues are expected to grow by 4.7% year over year, with wholesale accessories projected to increase by 7.5% and wholesale footwear by 3% [6]. Earnings Performance - Despite the revenue growth, the earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decline by 11.5% year over year, with a consensus estimate of 54 cents [3]. - The company has delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.8% on average, with the last quarter's earnings surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.3% [3]. Operating Environment - The operating environment remains challenging due to cautious consumer spending and rising operating expenses, which are expected to have deleveraged by 120 basis points as a percentage of sales in the fourth quarter [8]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current earnings prediction model does not indicate a strong likelihood of an earnings beat for Steven Madden, with an Earnings ESP of +4.67% and a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [9].