Core Insights - The competitive landscape between NIKE Inc. and Steven Madden Ltd. highlights their distinct market positions, with NIKE as a leader in performance sports and Steven Madden focusing on fashion-forward casual footwear [1][2] NIKE Inc. (NKE) - NIKE's investment case is supported by its significant scale and leadership in the global athleticwear market, with Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue reaching $11.72 billion, indicating the effectiveness of its "Win Now" strategy [3][4] - The brand experienced a more than 20% surge in running sales, and North America saw an 11% increase in wholesale, maintaining its status as a leading sportswear brand among younger consumers [4][5] - NIKE's strategic initiatives include a new Sport Offense structure aimed at enhancing product innovation and cultural relevance, alongside efforts to reset classic franchises and focus on key growth categories [5][6] - Despite challenges such as digital softness and tariff pressures leading to a gross margin decline to 42.2%, NIKE's management remains confident in returning to double-digit margins over time [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE's fiscal 2026 sales suggests a modest year-over-year growth of 0.8%, with EPS expected to decline by 24.1% [12] Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) - Steven Madden presents a differentiated investment case with strong brand equity and diversified category exposure, achieving a 6.9% revenue growth in Q3 and expanding gross margin to 43.4% [8][11] - The company benefits from a multi-brand portfolio and a robust presence with 397 stores and seven e-commerce sites, appealing to Gen Z and millennial consumers [7][10] - Product innovation and disciplined pricing strategies are driving demand, particularly in high-demand categories like boots and casual footwear [9][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Steven Madden's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year growth of 10.3%, with EPS expected to decline by 40.1% [14] - Steven Madden's stock has increased by 37% over the past three months, reflecting improving analyst sentiment and expectations for continued growth [8][16] Valuation and Performance Comparison - NIKE shares have declined by 17.8% in the past three months, while Steven Madden's stock has seen significant growth [16] - NIKE is trading at a forward P/E multiple of 30.29X, slightly below its five-year median, indicating a potential opportunity for long-term investors [18][19] - In contrast, Steven Madden's forward P/E multiple is at 18.32X, above its historical median, suggesting elevated market expectations for continued recovery and growth [18][20] - The analysis indicates that NIKE is viewed as a stable leader, while Steven Madden is perceived as a growth story with higher expectations [21] Conclusion - NIKE remains a global icon with unmatched scale, but the near-term outlook favors Steven Madden due to stronger price performance and improving analyst expectations [25][26] - Steven Madden's relative affordability and operational improvements strengthen its investment case, making it a compelling opportunity for growth-focused investors [26][27]

Core Insights - Steve Madden reported a revenue increase of 6.9% year-over-year to $667.9 million for Q3 2025 [1] - The gross margin remained stable at 41.5%, while the adjusted gross margin improved to 43.4% from 41.6% in the same period of 2024 [1] - Net income attributable to Steven Madden, Ltd. was $20.5 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, down from $55.3 million, or $0.77 per diluted share in Q3 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Revenue: $667.9 million, a 6.9% increase year-over-year [1] - Gross Margin: 41.5% (unchanged from 2024); Adjusted Gross Margin: 43.4% (up from 41.6% in 2024) [1] - Operating Expenses: 36.8% of revenue, compared to 28.6% in 2024; Adjusted Operating Expenses: 36.4% of revenue, up from 27.9% in 2024 [1] - Operating Income: $31.4 million, representing 4.7% of revenue; Adjusted Operating Income: $46.3 million, or 6.9% of revenue, down from $85.4 million, or 13.7% in 2024 [1] Profitability Metrics - Net Income: $20.5 million, down from $55.3 million in Q3 2024 [1] - Adjusted Net Income: $30.4 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, compared to $64.8 million, or $0.91 per diluted share in 2024 [1]

Core Insights - Steven Madden reported $667.88 million in revenue for Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of 6.9%, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $698.91 million by 4.44% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $0.43, down from $0.91 a year ago, and also missed the consensus estimate of $0.44 by 2.27% [1] Revenue Breakdown - International revenue reached $255.88 million, exceeding the average estimate of $182.76 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 110.8% [4] - Domestic revenue was $411.99 million, below the average estimate of $515.62 million, reflecting an 18.1% decline year-over-year [4] - Direct-to-Consumer revenue was $221.5 million, surpassing the average estimate of $173.97 million, with a year-over-year increase of 76.5% [4] - Total Wholesale revenue was $442.7 million, below the average estimate of $476.94 million, showing a 10.7% decrease year-over-year [4] - Total Revenue from Net Sales was $664.2 million, slightly above the average estimate of $650.91 million, marking a 6.3% year-over-year increase [4] Operational Performance - Income from operations in Wholesale was $55.72 million, below the average estimate of $66.36 million [4] - Income from operations in Direct-to-Consumer was -$4.44 million, better than the average estimate of -$7.44 million [4] - Income from operations in Wholesale Accessories/Apparel was $15.6 million, below the average estimate of $21.07 million [4] - Income from operations in Wholesale Footwear was $40.11 million, below the average estimate of $45.29 million [4] Stock Performance - Steven Madden's shares have returned +9.9% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.4% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 6.9% to $667,875 compared to $624,675 in Q3 2024, driven by the acquisition of Kurt Geiger[154] - Net income attributable to Steven Madden, Ltd. was $20,528 in Q3 2025, down from $55,278 in Q3 2024[154] - Diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 was $0.29, compared to $0.77 in the same period last year[156] - Gross profit for Q3 2025 was $277,375, maintaining a gross margin of 41.5%, despite tariff-related impacts[161] - Income from operations for Q3 2025 decreased to $31,358, or 4.7% of total revenue, down from $74,578, or 11.9% in Q3 2024[163] - Total revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 increased 4.7% to $1,780,409 compared to $1,700,609 in the prior year, primarily due to incremental revenue from the acquisition of Kurt Geiger[181] - Gross profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $729,669, or 41.0% of total revenue, down from $701,488, or 41.2% in the prior year, impacted by tariff-related issues[182] - Income from operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $44,599, or 2.5% of total revenue, significantly lower than $178,194, or 10.5% in the prior year[184] - Net income attributable to Steven Madden, Ltd. for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $21,474, compared to $134,589 in the prior year[185] Revenue Segmentation - Revenue from the Wholesale Footwear segment decreased by 10.9% to $266,543, representing 39.9% of total revenue, primarily due to tariff-related impacts[165] - Revenue from the Direct-to-Consumer segment surged by 76.6% to $221,505, driven by the acquisition of Kurt Geiger and expansion in brick-and-mortar stores[173] - Revenue from the Wholesale Footwear segment for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $782,827, or 44.0% of total revenue, down 5.9% from $832,000 in the prior year[186] - Revenue from the Direct-to-Consumer segment for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $529,071, or 29.7% of total revenue, an increase of 41.4% from $374,194 in the prior year[194] - Loss from operations for the Direct-to-Consumer segment for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $55,002, or (10.4)% of revenue, compared to income of $14,564, or 3.9% in the prior year[197] - Royalty income from the Licensing segment for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $8,737, or 0.5% of total revenue, up from $7,163, or 0.4% in the prior year[198] Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses for Q3 2025 rose to $246,017, or 36.8% of total revenue, compared to $178,915, or 28.6% in Q3 2024, primarily due to the acquisition of Kurt Geiger[162] - Operating expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 were $687,145, or 38.6% of total revenue, compared to $507,343, or 29.8% in the prior year, largely due to acquisition-related costs[183] - Corporate operating expenses for Q3 2025 were $23,377, or 3.5% of total revenue, down from $25,065, or 4.0% in Q3 2024[179] - Corporate operating expenses were $80,070 million, representing 4.5% of total revenue, compared to $72,781 million or 4.3% in the prior year[200] Taxation - The effective tax rate for Q3 2025 was 17.4%, down from 25.5% in Q3 2024[154] - The effective tax rate for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was 47.0%, compared to 24.3% in the prior year, primarily due to non-deductible expenses related to the acquisition of Kurt Geiger[184] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $108,862 as of September 30, 2025[157] - Working capital increased to $520,512 as of September 30, 2025, compared to $491,880 a year earlier[157] - Cash provided by operating activities decreased to $71,072 million from $94,245 million, primarily due to lower net income[210] - Cash used in investing activities totaled $392,861 million, mainly due to the acquisition of Kurt Geiger for $371,554 million[211] - Cash provided by financing activities was $237,540 million, primarily from net borrowings of $300,000 million[212] Acquisitions and Strategic Initiatives - The company acquired a 50% controlling interest in MG Distribution Hong Kong Limited to expand distribution in China, Hong Kong, and Macau[145] - The company completed the acquisition of Kurt Geiger for a preliminary purchase price of $403,348 million on May 6, 2025[203] - Strategic initiatives include expanding international markets and growing non-footwear categories[155] Dividends and Borrowings - A quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share was approved, payable on December 26, 2025[216] - The company has outstanding borrowings of $277,500 million under its senior secured term loan facility, with interest rates subject to market fluctuations[220]

Group 1 - The investment strategy focuses on long-only investment, evaluating companies from an operational and buy-and-hold perspective [1] - The approach emphasizes understanding the long-term earnings power of companies and the competitive dynamics of their industries [1] - Most recommendations will be holds, indicating a cautious stance in a bullish market [1] Group 2 - The articles aim to provide important information for future investors while maintaining a healthy skepticism [1] - A very small fraction of companies are considered a buy at any point in time, highlighting a selective investment approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are encouraged to consider Steven Madden (SHOO) due to improving earnings estimates and positive stock momentum [1][8] Estimate Revisions - The upward trend in earnings estimate revisions indicates growing analyst optimism regarding Steven Madden's earnings prospects, which is expected to positively impact its stock price [2] - The Zacks Rank system, which correlates earnings estimate revisions with stock price movements, supports this positive outlook [2][3] Current Quarter and Year Estimates - For the current quarter, Steven Madden is expected to earn $0.27 per share, reflecting a 50.9% decrease from the previous year, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 83.16% due to one upward revision [5] - For the full year, the expected earnings are $1.60 per share, a 40.1% decline from the prior year, with two upward revisions contributing to a positive trend in consensus estimates [6] Zacks Rank - Steven Madden has achieved a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to favorable estimate revisions, indicating strong potential for outperformance compared to the S&P 500 [7] - Stocks with Zacks Rank 1 and 2 are shown to significantly outperform the S&P 500 [7] Stock Performance - The stock has gained 12.9% over the past four weeks, reflecting investor confidence in its earnings growth prospects [8]

Core Insights - Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) reported third-quarter 2025 results with total revenues of $667.9 million, a 6.9% increase year over year, but earnings per share (EPS) of 43 cents missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents and fell 52.7% from the prior year [1][3][10] - The company provided strong forward guidance, expecting fourth-quarter revenues to rise by 27% to 30% year over year, driven by the addition of Kurt Geiger and improving momentum in its core footwear business [1][13] Financial Performance - Adjusted gross profit increased by 11.6% year over year to $289.7 million, surpassing estimates, with an adjusted gross margin expansion of 180 basis points to 43.4% [4] - Adjusted operating income fell 45.8% to $46.3 million, with an adjusted operating margin decreasing by 680 basis points to 6.9% [5] - Total revenues included $442.7 million from wholesale, down 10.7% year over year, while direct-to-consumer revenues surged 76.6% to $221.5 million [6][8] Segment Performance - Within the wholesale segment, footwear revenues declined by 10.9%, and accessories and apparel revenues fell by 10.3% [7] - Direct-to-consumer sales growth was primarily driven by the Kurt Geiger acquisition, which contributed significantly to overall revenue despite a slight decline in core operations [10][15] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates revenues from Kurt Geiger to range between $182 million and $187 million, with a significant portion coming from direct-to-consumer operations [15] - Tariff-related challenges are expected to persist, impacting gross margins, but mitigation strategies are in place to alleviate some of the effects [16] Financial Health - At the end of Q3, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $108.7 million and stockholders' equity of $886.1 million [11] - A cash dividend of 21 cents per share is scheduled for payment on December 26, 2025 [12]

Core Insights - The company believes the worst impacts from tariffs are behind them, with order patterns from wholesale customers normalizing and strong underlying consumer demand for their brands [1][2] - The third quarter of 2025 was challenging due to new tariffs on Chinese imports, leading to reduced orders and shipment delays, which negatively affected revenue and earnings [2][9] - The company is seeing strong performance in its flagship Steve Madden brand, particularly in boots and dress shoes, supported by effective marketing strategies targeting Gen Z and millennials [4][5] Financial Performance - Consolidated revenue for Q3 2025 was $667.9 million, a 6.9% increase compared to 2024, but a 14.8% decrease when excluding the newly acquired Kurt Geiger [9] - Wholesale revenue decreased by 10.7% to $442.7 million, with footwear revenue down 10.9% and accessories and apparel down 10.3% [9][10] - Direct-to-consumer revenue increased by 76.6% to $221.5 million, with a 1.5% increase when excluding Kurt Geiger [10] Gross Margin and Operating Expenses - Consolidated gross margin improved to 43.4% from 41.6% in the prior year, primarily due to the higher mix of direct-to-consumer sales from Kurt Geiger [11] - Wholesale gross margin decreased to 33.6% from 35.5% due to tariff pressures, while direct-to-consumer gross margin fell to 61.9% from 64% [11] - Operating expenses rose to $243.4 million, or 36.4% of revenue, compared to 27.9% in 2024, leading to operating income of $46.3 million [12] Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth of 27% to 30% in Q4 2025 compared to 2024, with earnings per share projected between $0.41 and $0.46 [14] - The integration of Kurt Geiger is on track, with mid-teens comp sales growth and plans for expansion in international markets [5][30] - The company aims to recover gross margins over time, with expectations of improved performance in 2026 [49][65] Brand Performance and Marketing - The Steve Madden brand is experiencing strong sell-through rates, particularly in boots and dress shoes, with a focus on fashion-forward products [4][16] - The marketing strategy includes increased investment in social media platforms, driving awareness and conversion among younger consumers [4][60] - The company is seeing improved performance in full-price channels compared to value price channels, which have been more affected by tariff-related disruptions [60] Inventory and Supply Chain - Inventory at the end of Q3 was $476 million, a significant increase from $268.7 million in 2024, with efforts to manage stock levels amid supply chain disruptions [13] - The company is diversifying its sourcing strategy to reduce reliance on any single country, particularly in light of tariff changes [24] - The ability to chase demand has been impacted by supply chain disruptions, but the company has managed to front-load merchandise effectively [22][23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q3 2025 was $667.9 million, a 6.9% increase compared to Q3 2024. Excluding Kurt Geiger, revenue decreased by 14.8% [9] - Net income attributable to Steve Madden Ltd. for the quarter was $30.4 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, compared to $64.8 million, or $0.91 per diluted share in Q3 2024 [13] - Operating income for the quarter was $46.3 million, or 6.9% of revenue, down from $85.4 million, or 13.7% of revenue in the prior year [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wholesale revenue was $442.7 million, down 10.7% compared to Q3 2024. Excluding Kurt Geiger, wholesale revenue decreased by 19% [9] - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue increased by 76.6% to $221.5 million. Excluding Kurt Geiger, DTC revenue increased by 1.5% [9] - Wholesale footwear revenue was $266.5 million, a 10.9% decrease from the comparable period in 2024, or down 16.7% excluding Kurt Geiger [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comp sales for the Kurt Geiger brand were up mid-teens in Q3 2025, indicating strong consumer response [6] - The company ended the quarter with 397 company-operated retail stores, including 99 outlets, and 7 e-commerce websites [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on deepening consumer connections through compelling products and effective marketing, particularly for the Steve Madden brand [5] - The acquisition integration of Kurt Geiger is on track, with progress on revenue synergies and cost savings opportunities [7] - The company plans to open a handful of stores in the U.S. for Kurt Geiger next year and expects growth in both retail and wholesale channels [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by new tariffs but believes the worst is behind them, with order patterns from wholesale customers normalizing [4] - The company expects revenue to increase by 27%-30% in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, with earnings per share projected in the range of $0.41-$0.46 [14] - Management expressed confidence in improved financial performance in Q4 and the long-term growth potential of their brands and business model [8] Other Important Information - Consolidated gross margin was 43.4%, up from 41.6% in the comparable period of 2023, primarily due to the higher mix of DTC from Kurt Geiger [10] - The company approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share, payable on December 26, 2025 [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the fashion developing this fall and inventory levels in the wholesale channel? - Management noted strong performance in the core Steve Madden women's shoe business, particularly in boots, and expressed confidence in spring prospects [17][18] Question: What is the expected revenue contribution from Kurt Geiger in Q4? - Management expects Kurt Geiger's revenue contribution to be between $182 million and $187 million, with over 70% coming from DTC [20][21] Question: How is the margin structure expected to recover? - Management believes all margin erosion is recoverable over time, with tariffs expected to be reflected in retail prices [64][65] Question: What is the outlook for the wholesale business by type? - Management indicated the strongest performance is in regular price channels, while value price channels have faced more pressure [85] Question: How is Kurt Geiger performing by region? - Kurt Geiger is growing in all core regions, including the U.K., U.S., and Europe [42] Question: What are the expectations for international brand growth? - Management anticipates high single-digit revenue growth for Steve Madden internationally in 2025 and strong double-digit growth for Kurt Geiger [73]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q3 2025 was $667.9 million, a 6.9% increase compared to Q3 2024. Excluding Kurt Geiger, revenue decreased by 14.8% [9] - Wholesale revenue was $442.7 million, down 10.7% compared to Q3 2024, with a 19% decrease when excluding Kurt Geiger [9] - Direct-to-consumer revenue increased by 76.6% to $221.5 million, with a 1.5% increase when excluding Kurt Geiger [9] - Net income attributable to Steve Madden Ltd. was $30.4 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, compared to $64.8 million, or $0.91 per diluted share in Q3 2024 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wholesale footwear revenue was $266.5 million, a 10.9% decrease from Q3 2024, or down 16.7% excluding Kurt Geiger [9] - Wholesale accessories and apparel revenue was $176.2 million, down 10.3% compared to the prior year, or down 22.5% excluding Kurt Geiger [9] - Direct-to-consumer gross margin was 61.9%, down from 64% in the comparable period in 2024 due to tariff pressures and the addition of Kurt Geiger [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comp sales for Kurt Geiger London were up mid-teens in Q3 2025, indicating strong consumer response [6] - The company operated 397 retail stores, including 99 outlets, and 7 e-commerce websites as of the end of the quarter [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on deepening consumer connections through compelling products and effective marketing, particularly for the Steve Madden brand [5] - Strategic pricing actions and sourcing initiatives are being implemented to mitigate gross margin pressure [5] - The integration of Kurt Geiger is on track, with progress on revenue synergies and cost savings opportunities [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by new tariffs but expressed confidence that the worst is behind them [4] - There is optimism for improved financial performance in Q4 2025, with expectations of revenue growth of 27%-30% compared to Q4 2024 [14] - Management believes they have the brands and strategy to drive sustainable revenue and earnings growth over the long term [8] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share, payable on December 26, 2025 [14] - Inventory at the end of the quarter was $476 million, compared to $268.7 million in Q3 2024 [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the fashion developing this fall and what are the inventory levels in the wholesale channel? - Management noted strong performance in the core Steve Madden women's shoe business, particularly in boots, and expressed confidence in spring prospects [17][18] Question: What is the expected revenue contribution from Kurt Geiger in Q4? - Management expects Kurt Geiger's revenue contribution to be between $182 million and $187 million, with over 70% coming from DTC [20][21] Question: How is the margin structure expected to recover? - Management believes all margin erosion is recoverable over time, with expectations to return to pre-tariff margins eventually [64][65] Question: What is the performance outlook for wholesale channels? - Strongest performance is seen in regular price channels, while value price channels have faced more pressure [85] Question: How is the international growth outlook for Steve Madden and Kurt Geiger? - Steve Madden is expected to see high single-digit revenue growth internationally, while Kurt Geiger is anticipated to achieve strong double-digit growth [73]