Analyst downgrades Rivian stock price targets; What's next for RIVN?

Core Viewpoint - Rivian's stock experienced significant volatility following its Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings report, with concerns over 2025 guidance and external factors impacting investor sentiment [2][4][5]. Group 1: Earnings and Guidance - Rivian exceeded expectations for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue in its Q4 and full-year 2024 report, but provided weaker-than-expected guidance for 2025 [2][3]. - The company now anticipates delivering between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles in 2025, which is below the 52,000 delivered in 2024 and Wall Street's forecast of 55,000 [3]. - Rivian projects a loss before interest and taxes of up to $1.9 billion for 2025, which exceeds analyst estimates [3]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Following the earnings report, Rivian's stock fell 8% on February 21 and continued to decline, dropping another 7.29% to $12.03 by February 24 [4]. - Analyst downgrades have contributed to the stock's decline, with Bank of America lowering its price target to $10 from $13 and Cantor Fitzgerald downgrading from 'Overweight' to 'Neutral' while raising its price target to $15 from $13 [5][7]. Group 3: External Factors and Risks - Concerns over potential rollbacks of EV incentives under the Trump administration have raised questions about Rivian's $6.6 billion Department of Energy loan, which was secured under the Biden administration [6]. - Analysts have expressed worries about new tariffs and the possible removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which could negatively impact demand for Rivian vehicles [7]. - Guggenheim maintained a 'Buy' rating but lowered its price target to $16 from $18, citing weaker-than-expected guidance and the removal of the R1 platform from their valuation model [8]. Group 4: Future Catalysts - Upcoming events, such as CEO RJ Scaringe's presentation at Nvidia's GTC conference in March, may renew investor interest in Rivian [9].