ON Initiates Restructuring Plan: How Should You Approach the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - ON Semiconductor is implementing a restructuring plan to reduce its workforce by 2,400 employees, which is expected to generate annual savings of $105 million to $115 million while incurring $50-$60 million in employment-related charges [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's fourth-quarter 2024 non-GAAP earnings were 95 cents per share, a decline of 24% year over year, with revenues falling 14.7% to $1.72 billion [2]. - ON's stock has decreased by 19.8% year to date, underperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector, which saw a decline of 1.6% [2]. Market Dynamics - Sales in Japan declined sharply in the fourth quarter, while China experienced an 18% sequential growth; however, early Chinese New Year and extended shutdowns negatively impacted electric vehicle deliveries, affecting ON's growth prospects [5]. - The company anticipates that ongoing inventory digestion in key markets, particularly automotive and industrial, will continue to impact profitability [2]. Strategic Initiatives - ON's restructuring plan aims to enhance profitability through stringent cost management and capacity planning, which is expected to improve gross and operating margins and generate strong cash flow in the long term [6]. - The company is focusing on growth in silicon carbide technology, particularly in utility-scale solar and battery electric vehicles (BEVs), with expected revenue increases of 40% in 2024 and 50% in aerospace and defense [7]. Acquisitions and Partnerships - ON's acquisition of Silicon Carbide Junction Field-Effect Transistor technology is expected to enhance its energy-efficient power solutions portfolio, particularly for AI data centers and electric vehicles [8]. - Partnerships with companies like BorgWarner and Magna are set to enhance ON's market position in silicon carbide technology, with a lifetime value of $1 billion from the BorgWarner collaboration [11]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is 54 cents per share, reflecting a 35.5% decline over the past 30 days and a 41.3% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [12]. - For 2025, the earnings estimate is $2.60 per share, down 35.5% from 2024, with revenues projected at $6.17 billion, indicating a 12.92% decline [13]. Stock Valuation - ON Semiconductor shares are currently considered overvalued, indicated by a Value Score of D, and are trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend [15][16]. - The company plans to rationalize its manufacturing footprint and reduce excess capacity, which is expected to lower fixed costs and positively impact profitability by late 2025 [17].