Back in February, I said ON Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: ON ) was a “ Buy .” At that point, the stock had been dropping, but I thought the selloff was an overreaction. My belief was that ON’sI focus on producing objective, data-driven research, mostly about small- to mid-cap companies, as these tend to be overlooked by many investors. From time to time, though, I also look at large-cap names, just to give a fuller sense of the broader equity markets.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long pos ...

ON Semiconductor (ON) 2025 Conference September 03, 2025 02:10 PM ET Company ParticipantsHassane El-Khoury - President, CEO & DirectorThad Trent - EVP & CFOConference Call ParticipantsChristopher Danely - AnalystChristopher DanelyFantastic. Alrighty. Testing. One, two, three. Great.Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for, sticking with us on this absolutely gorgeous day in New York. Next up is ON Semi. By the way, I wanna point out that I get a lot of, questions and people completely freaked out that ON's marg ...

Group 1 - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined by over 2% [1] - Microchip Technology fell by more than 3.5% [1] - NXP Semiconductors and ON Semiconductor dropped nearly 3% [1] Group 2 - Micron Technology, ASML, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and Applied Materials all experienced declines of over 2% [1] - Broadcom and Intel both saw declines of over 1% [1]

Summary of UBS Global I/O Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Automotive Semiconductors - **Market Outlook**: Positive momentum in the automotive semiconductor market is expected to continue into H2'25 and 2026E, following a recent inflection point in Q2'25 with a 1% year-over-year revenue growth after seven consecutive quarters of decline [1][2]. Key Points 1. **Analog Revenue Growth**: - The automotive semiconductor sector has seen a return to positive revenue growth, with a 1% year-over-year increase in Q2'25, marking the first positive growth since Q2'23. Projections for Q3 and Q4 indicate expected growth rates of 4% and 14% year-over-year, respectively [2][3]. 2. **Automotive and Industrial Revenue Forecasts**: - Automotive semiconductor revenues are forecasted to decline by 7% year-over-year in 2025E, an improvement from a previous estimate of -9%. A rebound is expected in 2026E with an 11% growth [3][11]. - Industrial semiconductor revenues are projected to grow by 8% year-over-year in 2025E, up from a previous estimate of 6%, following a decline of 19% in 2024 [3][11]. 3. **Regional Demand Insights**: - In China, automotive semiconductor demand is expected to grow by 4% year-over-year in 2025E, down from 21% in 2024. Non-China markets are projected to remain flat [4][16]. - Year-to-date, China car volumes have increased by 14% year-over-year, with new energy vehicles (NEV) growing by 37% [4]. 4. **Leading Indicators**: - Positive leading indicators include a return to quarter-over-quarter semiconductor revenue growth in Q2'25, with estimates of 5% and 14% growth for Q3 and Q4, respectively. Additionally, semiconductor inventory days are declining, expected to reach 162 days in Q3'25, down from 175 days in Q2'25 [5][9]. 5. **Sector Preferences**: - The analog semiconductor sector is currently trading at approximately 20x P/E for 2026E, compared to a 10-year average of 19x. Preferred companies include Texas Instruments (TI), Infineon (IFX), and Renesas, while ON Semiconductor and Melexis are rated neutral [6][24]. 6. **Risks and Challenges**: - Potential downside risks include deteriorating car production/sales, increasing tariffs, pricing pressure on semiconductors, and a slowdown in Chinese demand in H2'25 [5][9]. Additional Insights - **Market Pricing**: The market appears to be pricing in a low single-digit percentage decline in semiconductor revenues, with a volume increase of 5-15% expected in 2026E [6][24]. - **China's Market Dynamics**: The growth in China's automotive semiconductor market is expected to normalize, with global incumbents potentially facing a 1% revenue decline in 2025 due to competition from domestic players [16][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the UBS Global I/O Semiconductors conference call, highlighting the optimistic outlook for the automotive semiconductor industry while acknowledging potential risks and regional dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call involved OnSemi, a company operating in the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on automotive and industrial sectors. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Cautious Recovery Outlook**: OnSemi has been cautious about the recovery slope, noting that many companies have had to backtrack on optimistic guidance over the past 18 months. Current signs indicate slight improvement, but the company remains cautious about declaring a full recovery [1][4][5]. 2. **Stabilization Signs**: The company has observed signs of stabilization in business, with less reliance on "turns" to meet guidance compared to previous quarters. The second half of the year is expected to perform better than the first half [2][3]. 3. **Geopolitical Impact**: Geopolitical factors, including tariffs, have created a "paralysis" in customer ordering behavior, leading to shorter lead times and less visibility in demand. Customers are hesitant to place orders due to uncertainty [11][14][15]. 4. **Inventory Dynamics**: Inventory levels among customers are normalizing, with some automotive Tier 1 suppliers still holding excess inventory while others are at dangerously low levels. The inventory burn is closely tied to demand [19][20][23]. 5. **Capacity Concerns**: The semiconductor industry may face structural excess capacity, leading to pricing pressures. OnSemi has strategically exited lower-margin dual-sourcing products to focus on higher-margin offerings [27][29][30]. 6. **Product Exits**: OnSemi plans to exit about 5% of its revenue by 2026, focusing on high-quality revenue and differentiating products. This includes exiting dual-source businesses and repositioning its image sensing business towards machine vision [31][32][34]. 7. **Silicon Carbide Positioning**: OnSemi maintains a strong competitive position in silicon carbide technology, which is crucial for EVs and plug-in hybrids. The company has introduced advanced silicon carbide devices that are gaining traction in the market [46][49]. 8. **Treo Platform**: The Treo platform is expected to generate significant revenue with gross margins of 60% to 70%. The platform's unique design process allows for rapid product development, aligning with fast-moving market demands [55][60]. 9. **Gross Margin Targets**: OnSemi aims for gross margins in the low 50% range, currently facing challenges due to underutilization. The company believes that as market conditions stabilize, utilization will improve, positively impacting margins [66][70][72]. Other Important Content - **Customer Flexibility**: OnSemi's broad manufacturing footprint allows it to offer flexibility to customers navigating supply chain changes due to tariffs, which is seen as a competitive advantage [15][16]. - **Behavioral Changes in Ordering**: Customers are exhibiting short-term ordering behaviors due to lack of visibility, which is impacting the overall demand environment [14][21]. - **Future Growth Expectations**: The company expects to resume growth in 2027 after exiting non-repeating revenue streams, with ongoing investments in high-growth areas [43][45]. This summary captures the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting OnSemi's current market position, strategic focus, and outlook for the future.

Group 1: ON Semiconductor - ON Semiconductor is heavily reliant on the automotive market, particularly the electric vehicle (EV) sector, which has faced challenges due to high interest rates and increased competition leading to low profitability [4][5]. - Despite current struggles, ON Semiconductor is a highly profitable company trading at less than 15 times estimated free cash flow in 2025, indicating potential undervaluation [6]. - The company has long-term growth opportunities, including a partnership with Nvidia for next-generation data center technology, suggesting a positive outlook for future revenue growth [7]. Group 2: Centrus Energy - Centrus Energy is positioned to benefit from the growing interest in nuclear energy in the U.S., especially following recent executive orders that have spurred investment in the sector [9][10]. - The company reported a backlog of $3.8 billion as of March 31, 2025, with $2.8 billion attributed to its low-enriched uranium segment, indicating strong demand and growth potential [11]. - Centrus Energy is uniquely capable of producing high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which is increasingly needed for advanced nuclear projects, further enhancing its growth prospects [12]. Group 3: ASML - ASML plays a critical role in semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines essential for AI chip production [14]. - The demand for AI chips is expected to drive growth for ASML, as semiconductor fabs will need to increase production to meet rising workloads [15]. - Although ASML faces short-term challenges due to trade tensions and has tempered growth expectations for 2026, the long-term investment thesis remains strong, supported by reasonable valuation and dividend payments [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - ON Semiconductor is currently undervalued despite its strong long-term growth potential, particularly in the context of its partnership with Nvidia and the expected recovery in the automotive sector [2][3][12]. Group 1: Company Performance - ON Semiconductor's stock has declined by 28% over the past year, primarily due to challenges in the electric vehicle (EV) market, which has led to downward revisions in expectations [4]. - The company's sales to automotive-related markets are experiencing year-on-year declines, influenced by high interest rates and automakers cutting production plans [5]. - Despite the downturn, ON Semiconductor is generating value for investors and is expected to convert 25% of revenue into free cash flow (FCF) by 2025, potentially yielding about $1.44 billion in FCF [11]. Group 2: Market Outlook - There are signs of stabilization in ON Semiconductor's end markets, with sequential revenue growth noted in the latest earnings report [8]. - The partnership with Nvidia is expected to enhance the company's industrial-based sales, particularly in the context of AI infrastructure and power semiconductor supply [9]. - Analysts predict a significant earnings growth of 29% in 2026 following a challenging year in 2025, indicating a potential rebound for the stock [13].

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $180 billion in Q2 2025, marking a 7.8% increase from Q1 2025 and a 19.6% increase year-over-year from Q2 2024, continuing a trend of over 18% growth for six consecutive quarters [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor market is expected to see robust growth, with a forecasted annual growth rate between 14% and 16% for 2025, adjusted from a previous estimate of 11.2% to 15.4% [8]. - The strong performance in the first half of 2025 has led to an upward revision of the growth forecast from 7% to 13% [8]. Group 2: Company Revenue Insights - Nvidia is projected to maintain its position as the largest semiconductor company with expected revenues of $45 billion in Q2 2025, followed by Samsung and SK Hynix with revenues of $19.9 billion and $15.9 billion respectively [5][6]. - Memory chip manufacturers reported the highest revenue growth, with SK Hynix at 26%, Micron at 16%, and Samsung at 11% [5][6]. - Non-memory companies also showed growth, with Microchip Technology at 11%, STMicroelectronics at 10%, and Texas Instruments at 9.3% [5][6]. Group 3: Future Projections - Companies expect healthy revenue growth in Q3 2025, with Micron forecasting a 20% increase and Kioxia expecting a 30% increase, driven by demand in artificial intelligence applications [7]. - AMD anticipates a 13% revenue growth, while STMicroelectronics expects a 15% increase across all markets except automotive [7]. Group 4: Trade and Tariff Impacts - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and global trade continues to pose challenges, with potential tariffs on semiconductor imports being a significant concern [10]. - The U.S. government has recently provided export licenses to Nvidia and AMD for certain AI chips to China, although the legality of this agreement is questioned [10]. Group 5: Smartphone Market Trends - The U.S. smartphone import volume saw a dramatic decline of 58% in dollar terms and 47% in quantity in Q2 2025, with imports from China dropping by 85% [11]. - Despite the decline in U.S. smartphone imports, China's smartphone manufacturing remains strong, with a 5% increase in production in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 [12].

Technology stocks have had a run this year, but there are still opportunities to scoop up values in the space. The technology sector crashed through the first three months of 2025, but has experienced a ferocious recovery since early April. That recent rally has left many tech stocks either fully valued or overvalued. But just because it's harder to find a bargain doesn't mean there aren't good values in the tech sector. As it stands today in early August, these three names still look like good opportunitie ...

ON Semiconductor (ON) Conference Summary Industry Overview - The conference focused on the semiconductor industry, specifically ON Semiconductor's performance and outlook in various markets, including automotive and AI data centers [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Business Stabilization and Recovery - The CEO indicated signs of stabilization in the business, emphasizing that multiple indicators, such as fill rates and ordering patterns, are being monitored to assess recovery potential [2][3][4]. - A sustainable recovery is contingent on end demand driving replenishment and healthier order patterns, which have not yet been fully realized [5][6]. Automotive Market Insights - The automotive sector is crucial for ON Semiconductor, with Q2 showing a decline but Q3 expected to improve [8][9]. - China’s automotive market grew by 23%, primarily driven by electric vehicles (EVs), while the US and European markets remain weak [9][10]. - The demand for EVs continues to grow, although not at the previously anticipated rate, with significant opportunities in both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids [11][12][13]. Competitive Landscape - The CEO discussed the competitive dynamics in the EV market, noting that while there are share shifts among OEMs, the overall growth is not a zero-sum game [14][15][16]. - Chinese OEMs are expanding their global footprint, which presents both challenges and opportunities for ON Semiconductor [18][19]. Silicon Carbide (SiC) Technology - The penetration rate of silicon carbide in current production vehicles is low, but design activity shows a 90% penetration rate, indicating strong future growth potential [27]. - ON Semiconductor maintains a competitive edge in SiC technology, with superior performance compared to both Chinese and Western competitors [29][30]. - The company has qualified multiple substrate vendors to ensure flexibility and mitigate risks associated with supply chain uncertainties [31][32]. Data Center and AI Growth - The AI data center segment has doubled year-over-year, with ON Semiconductor focusing on high-power applications and expanding its product offerings [43][44]. - The company is strategically positioning itself within the power chain, aiming to capture more market share as demand for AI solutions grows [45][46]. Business Restructuring and Financial Outlook - ON Semiconductor plans to exit low-margin businesses, including the image sensing group, which is expected to result in a revenue decline of $200 million in the upcoming year [55][56]. - The company is focusing on high-margin growth areas, such as the Trejo platform, which has a margin of 60-70% [61][62]. - Despite the anticipated revenue decline from exiting certain businesses, ON Semiconductor expects to generate sufficient free cash flow and has increased its share buyback program [63][64]. Additional Important Insights - The transition to 800-volt systems is expected to enhance average selling prices (ASPs) and gross margins, driven by increased power content in vehicles [39][40]. - The company is actively engaging with customers to innovate and align product offerings with next-generation technologies [50][52]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the ON Semiconductor conference, highlighting the company's strategic focus areas and market dynamics.