Is UPS Stock a Buy Now?

Core Viewpoint - UPS is showing signs of recovery after a significant stock decline, with potential for future growth driven by strategic changes and cost-cutting measures [1][9]. Group 1: Performance Overview - UPS' stock fell over 20% in the past year while the S&P 500 rose nearly 20%, indicating underperformance [1]. - Average daily package volume peaked during the pandemic but has since declined, with 2023 volume at 22.3 million compared to 25.3 million in 2021 [2][3]. - Total revenue reached $100.3 billion in 2022 but is projected to drop to$89 billion in 2025, influenced by a decline in package volume and the divestment of Coyote Logistics [3][6]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Average revenue per piece increased from $10.87 in 2019 to$13.62 in 2023, reflecting pricing power despite volume declines [3]. - Adjusted operating margin decreased from 13.8% in 2022 to an expected 10.8% in 2025 due to rising costs [4][8]. - Diluted EPS fell from $14.68 in 2021 to$7.80 in 2023, with a forecasted growth of 16% for the full year 2025 [3][8]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - UPS plans to automate services, invest in logistics technologies, and shift focus to higher-margin customers, aiming to save $1 billion by 2025 through its "Efficiency Reimagined" plan [5][9]. - The company has laid off approximately 12,000 employees to streamline operations following a new contract with the Teamsters Union [5]. - UPS intends to reduce orders from Amazon by over 50% through 2026, which may limit short-term revenue but enhance long-term profitability [7][9]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - UPS' stock is currently valued at 15 times the estimated GAAP EPS, with a forward dividend yield of 5.6%, making it attractive for income-focused investors [8][10]. - The company is expected to stabilize its top-line growth as it adjusts to the sale of Coyote and the reduction of Amazon orders [9]. - While immediate stock price appreciation may be limited, UPS is viewed as a safe investment for generating income [10].