Tesla Stock: Finding a Bottom May Take Time

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has faced significant challenges, with a notable decline of 29.5% in 2025, marking one of its worst performances historically, despite a 40% increase over the last 12 months [1][2]. Stock Performance - The 12-month stock price forecast for Tesla is $315.33, indicating a potential upside of 17.49% [1]. - Tesla's stock is currently trading 19% below the consensus price target from analysts [2]. - The stock has been rated as a "Hold" by analysts, with a high forecast of $515.00 and a low forecast of $24.86 [1]. Analyst Sentiment - Bank of America has lowered its price target for Tesla from $490 to $380, reflecting a more cautious stance among institutional investors [2]. - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook with a price target of $430, emphasizing Tesla's potential beyond just being a car company [6]. Market Competition - Tesla faces increasing competition from BYD, which has recently overtaken Tesla in sales in China and is expected to capture more market share in Europe and Asia [5]. - Recent data shows Tesla registrations in Europe have decreased by 45% year-over-year in January, while overall EV registrations increased by 37% [5]. Valuation Concerns - Tesla's stock is trading at approximately 111 times forward earnings, suggesting it may be overvalued compared to traditional measures [8]. - Historical performance indicates that Tesla's stock has previously experienced significant drops, with a 72% decline from November 2021 to January 2023 [9]. Technical Analysis - As of March 4, Tesla's stock was trading at its 200-day simple moving average, which could indicate a potential relief rally if it holds this level [10]. - A break below this level could lead to a further decline to around $214, approximately 32% below the current price [10].