Costco Stock Is Doing Great! But Is It a Buy Now?

Business Model - Costco operates as a club store, requiring customers to pay a membership fee to shop, which significantly alters the retail dynamic [1] - Membership fees generated nearly $1.2 billion in revenue, contributing over half of Costco's operating income of approximately$2.2 billion in the fiscal first quarter of 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In the fiscal first quarter, Costco's top line grew by 7.5%, with same-store sales increasing by 5.2% [5] - Earnings per share rose to $4.04, up from$3.58 in the same quarter of the previous year, indicating strong performance [5] - Store traffic increased by 5.1%, suggesting that membership fee-paying customers are returning to make more purchases [5] Membership Retention - Costco maintains a high member retention rate of over 90%, indicating effective customer satisfaction strategies [3] - The company leverages its membership fees to offer competitive pricing, enhancing customer loyalty [3] Valuation Concerns - Costco's stock is currently within 5% of its all-time highs, leading to a lower dividend yield and suggesting an expensive valuation [7] - Traditional valuation metrics, such as price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios, are above their five-year averages, indicating a steep price [8] - Historical analysis shows that Costco's valuation ratios are near the highest levels in the company's history, suggesting the stock is historically expensive [9] Investment Outlook - Despite Costco's strong business fundamentals, the current stock price may not present a good investment opportunity [9] - The stock has experienced significant drawdowns in the past, indicating potential future price declines that could create a buying opportunity [10]